Leeds’ terrific run of form has given the champions the chance to top Super League with victory at Wigan. George Riley assesses the Yorkshire side’s chances and selects his best bets of the weekend…

Last weekend was a cracker for followers of this column. Our top three tips all came in, including away wins for Castleford and Wigan and a long-awaited victory for struggling Catalans Dragons. Yet Wakefield’s shock 10 point win at leaders St Helens was the most rewarding if you followed my steer by backing this banana skin. I didn’t have to buy a drink all weekend.

So Saints surprise home slump gives the Rhinos the incentive ahead of their televised Friday night trip to rivals Wigan. Leeds have really hit their straps in recent weeks. A shock June defeat in the south of France has prompted a run of six straight wins, and the [1.51] Rhinos have beaten Wigan on their last three meetings. Warriors boss Brian Noble is a former Bradford coach, and thus loves turning over Leeds. He will have his charges ready for this but I wouldn’t expect it to be enough. Leeds name a strong 17 with Kevin Sinfield, Scott Donald and Brett Webb all fit to return.

Wigan trade at [3.2] on the night and will be buoyed by last weekend’s win at the Bulls, but I still back Leeds.

A Rhinos win will see them top Super League overnight, but St Helens are in London on Saturday afternoon. Saints are [1.3] to oust the [4.3] Harlequins who continue to stutter in the absence of key playmakers Rob Purdham and Luke Dorn. I’d love to predict a shock here but Quins really do miss those two. That said Dorn was named in the initial 19-man squad and could make an earlier than expected return. Hooker Chad Randall’s a doubt too though and his absence would be massive. That said, Saints are walking wounded. Wellens, Long, Roby, Cayless and Fa’asavalu all miss out to give fans hope of a home win at the Stoop. I’ll be heading to West London to see if that happens, but the return of Kyle Eastmond after mumps should still give Saints the edge.

Saturday’s other fixtures include the Hull derby and a tricky trip to Wales for Bradford. The Bulls were the Celtic Crusaders victims in their first ever Super League win, at Odsal earlier this season. They trade at [3.05] with Betfair punters to beat Bradford again. The Bulls are [1.45] and you’d have to expect an away win, but I may well be brave and take the Crusaders’ value.

The Hull derby is played out at Craven Park and home advantage should see Rovers hold sway at [1.37] against the [3.4] Hull FC. I think FC are actually worth shorter odds than they are trading but I’d still back a Rovers win in a tight tussle. This is the TV game and Rovers are running out of games to claw back the three-point deficit with Huddersfield if they are to finish third heading into the playoffs. FC’s awful run has seen them drop out of the play-off picture. Kirk Yeaman faces a fitness test and I can’t see them winning without him.

Sunday’s three fixtures complete the round, with a blood and thunder West Yorkshire derby the highlight. Wakefield host bitter local rivals Castleford in what is such a grudge match I’m still pondering whether I can get up from London in time to watch it at Bellevue. As well as pride, there are league positions at stake with the pair locked on 22 points in sixth and seventh respectively. It really is a tough one to call this and the Betfair market surprises me a little, with the Tigers as much as [2.42] to beat the [1.49] Wildcats. I don’t believe there is as much as that between the two sides, with Castleford well capable of ruining the afternoon for Wakefield’s passionate support.

I’d not back either side with a great deal of confidence in this derby but if my life depended on it I’d have to go with Wakefield after their awesome win at Saints. Another interesting side battle is my good mate Ryan Atkins versus Michael Shenton in the centres. These two are rivals for the England centres jersey, with both starting in the last international in France.

The weekend is completed by Huddersfield’s home fixture with the Catalans. I see the Giants as the third best side in Super League and expect them to justify their [1.32] odds.

Warrington should have too much for Salford at the Halliwell Jones but the [1.2] about the Wolves doesn’t appeal to me one little bit.

It’s been really tough to finalise a top three tips on what could be a real bloodthirsty weekend. I’m looking at wins for Huddersfield, Leeds and I’m going to take a value punt on the Celtic Crusaders to earn a shock win over Bradford.

New Zealand kicked off their Tri-Nations campaign with a win against Australia but an away trip to South Africa is a whole new kettle of fish. Geoffrey Riddle believes Richie McCaw will be crucial to the outcome in a high-scoring match….

If there is one thing that makes me believe that New Zealand could easily upset South Africa in Bloemfontein on Saturday in the second match of this year’s Tri-Nations, it is the performance of Richie McCaw last weekend against Australia.

The All Blacks’ inspirational skipper returned from injury having played very few matches this season, and he was more than a match for George Smith, his long-standing Wallaby rival. Sure, Smith actually helped poach more ball according to the statistics, but although New Zealand lost the turnover count, they helped themselves to around 61% of the possession.
It must not be forgotten that McCaw played the full 80 minutes, while the Aussies had to replace blindside Richard Brown with David Pocock in the 50th minute in order to contain New Zealand’s talisman.

And the battle of the openside flankers will be fascinating on Saturday, not least because the Springboks continue with Heinrich Brussouw, who proved such a thorn in the side of the Lions recently. Anyone who follows the Super 14 closely will remember the Cheetahs’ stunning 20-13 defeat of the Crusaders earlier this season. Brussouw’s contribution to that victory was largely a defensive one, but if you can recall the game at all, you will remember that McCaw outplayed Brussouw, despite having his head bandaged after suffering a heavy cut. The Crusaders enjoyed 63% possession in that match, and it was only the destructive tackling of the Cheetahs, and the failure of the Crusaders’ backline to take their chances, that won the day.

And it may be that a similar outcome plays itself out in Bloemfontein. South Africa will tackle like crazy, and New Zealand’s backline looked cagey last weekend against the classier Wallabies. The Springboks welcome back a host of their star players, too, after the 28-9 defeat to the Lions in the dead rubber in Johannesburg three weeks ago.

The return of JP Pietersen, Jean de Villiers, Bryan Habana, Pierre Spies and Bakkies Botha instead of Jongi Nokwe, Wynand Olivier, Odwa Ndungane, Ryan Kankowski and Johann Muller respectively, should strengthen the run-on side considerably. The return of Botha is crucial. Botha and his lock partner Victor Matfield are the best lineout operators in the world, and Australia managed to nick four throw-ins off the All Blacks in Auckland. The match betting sees the hosts trade at [1.56] while the Kiwis are [2.98], which doesn’t give a lot away on either side.

Amazingly, that weird and wonderful Springbok coach Peter de Villiers has replaced Morne Steyn with Ruan Pienaar at fly-half. It’s a curious decision, and is based on Steyn’s limp contribution in that final Test against the Lions. What is does signal, however, is that South Africa may have shifted their focus slightly. Against the Lions, the Springboks knew they had to stick to a more structured game in order to combat Ian McGeechan’s strategy. Against the All Blacks though, that is not the case, and Pienaar’s array of attacking skills looks set to make this a more free-flowing contest. We all know he can’t kick at goal for god’s sake.

Graham Henry has responded in kind and has picked Joe Rokocoko in a record-breaking back three with Mils Muliaina and Sitiveni Sivivatu. No trio has boasted a greater amount of caps for the All Blacks, and that triumvirate will be looking to slip off the shoulder of human wrecking ball Ma’a Nonu, who will bulldoze up the centre channel. Rokocoko has been in only moderate form this season, but he has scored the most tries against the Springboks out of any player in All Black history bar Christian Cullen.

With such an attacking array of talent on show, and with both coaches sounding their intent to open the game up, the total points market looks of considerable interest. The forecast is for a beautiful day, and the stats seem to indicate a high-scoring contest as well. In the last ten Tri-Nations clashes in the Rainbow Nation between South Africa and New Zealand, the total points average stands at 50.4. Apart from the quite remarkable 19-0 victory by the All Blacks in Cape Town last year, only two other matches have seen the total points dip below the 40 mark. With that in mind, I’d be making the mid-point of my total points tissue spread at around 42.5. Let’s see what the guys at Betfair chalk up, and I’ll happily trade around it. I’ll go high pre-match, and revise my position at half-time.

George Riley talks us through the main stories from last week’s Super League action and looks ahead to the best bets from this weekend’s fixtures.

Super League’s big two both play on Friday night, both having survived a real test on their championship pedigree last weekend.

Leeds scored with the very last play to deny Wakefield a first-ever home Super League win over the Rhinos. St Helens had to withstand a fierce Warrington assault to come through a bruiser at the Halliwell Jones, as Saints preserve their two-point buffer over the champions at the top.

Leeds host Hull KR at Headingley boosted by that steal at Bellevue. I expect Leeds to be unchanged and I expect them to win again at [1.24]. Rovers have been a revelation under the guidance of Justin Morgan these past two seasons, the Aussie confidently predicting KR could even win this year’s competition. I can see Rovers making a game of this if they fancy it, and are certainly shouldn’t be the [5.7] shots they trade at on Betfair. Shocks do happen, but Leeds don’t look in the mood to lose anything at home. Their recent goal-line defence has been tremendous.

Wakefield will have to banish the heartache of that Leeds defeat if they are to take anything at St Helens. This is the televised game and Wildcats coach John Kear has got far too much pride not to send out a team capable of pulling off a win here. Wildcats are trading at [10.0] which is a ridiculous price. Sure, Saints should come through, but in a season of shocks I would fancy this as a potential banana skin, and certainly worth a couple of quid. Saints are [1.13] massive favourites.

I like the look of Salford-Castleford at the Willows – especially given the home side are [2.94] underdogs. Cas have steadied the ship to win three of their last four, and they are at [1.54]. If they pay with the same fire that saw them hammer 40 points on Hull FC last weekend then the Reds could have a tough old evening. Stefan Ratchford has been a revelation for Salford, emerging really in the shadow of another talented youngster Richie Myler, and he will be key to the home side’s chances.

Hull’s chance to respond to that Tiger tantrum is a home date with struggling Celtic Crusaders – who bounced back after a home win over Salford.

The Crusaders do have the talent, and having won at Bradford, a trip to the out of sorts Hull FC won’t hold any fear for John Dixon’s side, who trade at [4.4]. I expect Hull to come through but don’t fancy them strongly enough to suggest their [1.31] odds are worth backing.

The remaining three games are played on Sunday, with Bradford versus Wigan the obvious highlight. This could be a Grand Final in years gone by but both have struggled to escape the shadow of those great achievements.

Bradford’s surrender at Hull KR last week was meek and I liked the way Wigan overcame a really tough Catalans side to win it by two. Brian Noble always enjoys taking Wigan back to his old stamping ground and I lean towards the Cherry and Whites in this fixture at [1.97]. Bradford currently trade around [1.85] which shows you how close this one is to call.

I think Harlequins will struggle in the south of France against the Dragons. They trade at [4.0] to win in Perpignan but the loss through injury of Luke Dorn and Rob Purdham has prompted a dismal run of results and I feel for Brian McDermott’s team again. Neither are ready to return for this TV game and I strongly fancy the Catalans.

The remaining fixture looks a cracker as Huddersfield host Warrington – both sides bang in form, and boasting two of the best coaches in the competition. Despite their defeat to St Helens last week Warrington have been revitalised by Tony Smith. Nathan Brown has moulded Huddersfield into a club who are week-by-week strengthening their claims to be the third best side in the competition.

The Giants trade at [1.56], with [2.32] about the Wolves. I think it will be closer than that but having watched the Giants first hand last weekend I fancy them to stretch an impressive winning run. This could be the tie of the round.

My top three tips this week start with a home win for the Catalans Dragons. For a bit more value I’m looking at away wins for Castleford at Salford and Wigan at Bradford.

Geoffrey Riddle tells you everything you need to know about the 2009 Tri-Nations and makes his picks for this weekend’s big kick-off…

The British and Irish Lions tour of 2009 has given punters a real insight into the abilities and shortcomings of Peter de Villiers’ world champion Springboks ahead of what looks an increasingly competitive Tri-Nations tournament. The yearly contest between Australia, New Zealand and South Africa looks a very tight affair this year, but if we learnt one thing from this year’s Lions extravaganza, it was that familiarity breeds victory.

South Africa managed to hold on at various points during the first two Test matches because they knew collectively that they would, and could, pull through. They have been playing long enough together to be able to look within themselves and play without making too many mistakes under intense pressure. By the time of the third Test against the inspirational Lions, the tourists had sufficiently gelled to produce some dazzling rugby against a much-changed Springboks side, who perhaps didn’t care as much as they did in the opening two Tests.

And when you look at the past two Lions tours, both New Zealand in 2005 and Australia in 2001 went on to win the Tri-Nations after seeing off the Lions. Why? Because they had got those tough internationals under their belts and those squads were far better prepared for the rigours of this tournament than their opposition.

And the Tri-Nations could easily be won by early August. As you can see at the bottom of the page, New Zealand face Australia this Saturday at Eden Park having played some appalling rugby against France and Italy recently. Graham Henry’s All Blacks were shocking in those early season contests, and it is no surprise to see that they have drifted from around [2.25] in the tournament outright market to their current level of [2.9].

The All Blacks must then play twice in South Africa, and in Sydney after that. They look massively up against it in the early rounds, which is why the Springboks look a fair price to build up a head of steam at their expense. South Africa look perfect back-to-lay material. They play their first three games at home, and their first away fixture is against Australia in the Springbok-friendly city of Perth, where the Aussies have always struggled to subdue them.

At [2.6] there should be significant mileage in backing the Lion slayers, particularly as their only match in New Zealand is in Hamilton, and not in any of the comparatively mega stadiums such as Eden Park, Jade Stadium, or in the capital, Wellington.

I do think that all three sides are very closely matched on paper, which should throw up plenty of opportunities for in-running punters over the next few weeks. Although the All Blacks have won this competition an astonishing nine times to Australia and South Africa’s two each, that draw just looks too difficult for them.

There are really only two ways of approaching this weekend’s first clash in Auckland. Statistically, it happens that New Zealand are unbeaten at Eden Park since 1994, which is a consecutive winning streak of 19 matches. Now to me, that is impressive, but I’m not really sure it means very much.

The other angle is to look how the game is likely to pan out. What is potentially significant is that Richie McCaw returns to lead the Kiwis. It will be his first start since the Crusaders’ semi-final loss to the Bulls in May. McCaw has also played just eight games this season, which means that the All Blacks’ talisman is in for a stern test. What’s more, Australian coach Robbie Deans has decided to pick two open-side flankers on the bench, in addition to George Smith, who starts, which means that McCaw is going to receive thorough going over. And that has been the key to Australia’s excellent form so far this season. Deans has mixed a pacey back-row with a lightning fast backline, which feeds off the turnovers created by the flankers. McCaw therefore plays a pivotal role in Saturday’s encounter, and given the likely state of his fitness, and the opposition that lines up against him, he is more likely to fail in his task than succeed.

Early Betfair punters have made the visitors a [2.6] shot, but I’m pretty sure that the price is likely to drift come game time. I’d be looking to back Australia at around [2.9] if I could get it, but more importantly, I’d like to be with them on the handicap line, which at those prices equals about a five-point start. If there’s six around on the exchange, I’ll bite your arm off.

This year’s fixture list:

Tri-Nations 2009

New Zealand v Australia Auckland Sat, 18 Jul
South Africa v New Zealand Bloemfontein Sat, 25 Jul
South Africa v New Zealand Durban Sat, 1 Aug
South Africa v Australia Cape Town Sat, 8 Aug
Australia v New Zealand Sydney Sat, 22 Aug
Australia v South Africa Perth Sat, 29 Aug
Australia v South Africa Brisbane Sat, 5 Sep
New Zealand v South Africa Hamilton Sat, 12 Sep
New Zealand v Australia Wellington Sat, 19 Sep

Always keen to support a worthy cause here at betting.betfair.com, we chatted to Bodo Sieber, who is championing a campaign for Rugby Sevens to be given Olympic status. Here’s what he had to say…

So we hear you’re looking to get Rugby Sevens introduced as an Olympic sport. How big is the sport and how did this whole idea come about?

Rugby as a whole is big, with 3 million active players (men and women) worldwide. It also has a huge and growing following – the last World Cup in France 2007 was watched by over 4 billion people accumulatively. Sevens rugby has also grown exponentially in the last years and while the Sevens World Series would continue to attract crowds, the Sevens World Cup (which is played every four years) would be replaced by Sevens Rugby at the Olympics, which would become the sport’s blue-riband event.

What are it’s main selling points that you’re going to talk up if it’s going to be accepted?

Sevens is the perfect rugby format for the Olympics because it is fast paced, easy to understand and you can have an Olympic champion within three action-packed days. Generally at the Games the main stadium will be used for the opening ceremony and then becomes vacant for a week or so until the track and field events start – Sevens Rugby could fill the stadium during that time with fans that will no doubt add a lot of colour to the Games. Olympic rugby would also kick Olympic programs into gear, especially in nations where rugby is not too prominent as yet, such as the USA, Russia or Germany. It also gives smaller countries a very real chance for medals – Fiji, Samoa and Kenya have been outstanding in Sevens in recent years.

I see you’ve got a few familiar faces signed up to your campaign already. Tell us more.

We are close to 40 000 signatures after not even two months online. Some of the more prominent supporters have been 2007 Rugby World Champion and former South African captain Bon Skinstad, as well as Cheryl Soon, the captain of the Australian ladies team that won the 2009 Sevens World Championships. We also got plenty of Sevens teams to get behind the initiative. World Champions Wales, England, Scotland, Sevens Series Winners South Africa, the All Blacks, Portugal. Lots of women’s teams, like Brazil, Holland and Spain are all on the website.

Seeing as we’re a betting company, it’s fitting that we should talk about the odds being quoted on your bid being successful. Its 4-1. Is that how you’d see your chances?

There is no way we’d be as objective as the bookmakers when it comes to assessing the odds of rugby gaining Olympic status. We’d of course think the chances for inclusion would be a bit higher than that and we’ll do everything we can to make as much noise and drum up as much support as possible for rugby’s Olympic cause. There is tough competition, with seven sports competing for two available slots and with it the chance to further grow their particular sport.

Right then, you’ve convinced me to support your petition. What do I do next?

Go to our page and sign the petition – right on the start page. You can also see other supporters and a list of countries that have sent signatures – according to that there are a staggering 180 countries with rugby lovers out there! In true rugby style the site asks you to add the conversion once you have scored / signed for Olympic rugby, meaning we ask you to invite at least two friends, which helps spread the initiative. It is all good fun, very grassroots and casual with a sound technical back-end and game plan, much like rugby itself.

George Riley makes his picks from what should be another magnificent weekend of Super League action…

Leeds have the incentive of pulling level at the top of the table when they make the short trip to Wakefield for Friday night’s televised Super League derby.

St Helens’ defeat at home to Salford last weekend was the biggest shock of the season so far. Absolutely no-one saw it coming and Saints have been scratching their heads ever since.

That remarkable slip-up gives champions Leeds the momentum but they will face a Wildcats side with play-off aspirations of their own. Sixth placed Wakefield trade at [6.8] to grab a crucial two points at Bellevue, and after defeat at Huddersfield last week, coach John Kear will have his side well primed for a response. Expect a big performance from centre Ryan Atkins against a team I am sure he will end up playing for in the near future.

However, the Rhinos ran in seven tries at Hull last weekend and I get the sense that the champions are finding form at just the right time ahead of the playoffs. At [1.2] there is no value, but I have seen enough of Leeds this season to expect them to come through a West Yorkshire bruiser and really turn up the heat on leaders St Helens.

Just two points separate Wigan, in the eighth and final berth, and Catalans Dragons below them. These two meet at the JJB in the night’s other fixture with the French side providing value at [3.05]. Last weekend’s win over high-flying Hull KR will boost the Dragons who are more than capable of beating any of the teams above them. Wigan are in decent nick and have run in 15 tries in their last two victories – eight at home to Quins last week, seven away at Hull the previous week. Brian Noble likes the taste of the business end of the season and I fancy the Cherry and Whites to withstand the fierce French barrage tonight to oblige Betfair punters at [1.53].

Of Saturday’s three games I’m heading to see if Huddersfield can find another victory at Harlequins. Quins were hung out to dry by their centre David Howell at Wigan last week and were very much in the contest until he became the first player in the competition to be red-carded this season. His subsequent ban will hit his side too. I’m looking forward to this fixture. At full-strength I’d take Quins every time but they are clearly suffering in the absence of injured playmakers Luke Dorn and Rob Purdham. The home side trade – available around [2.26] – are unusually underdogs in this two-horse race which tells you how they miss those two players. Huddersfield should find another win at [1.75], but this is very much a game that will split punters down the middle.

Salford look to make the most of that unbelievable St Helens win, with another away triumph at Celtic Crusaders. They should oblige at [1.48].

Warrington versus St Helens is Saturday’s televised game and this is a real, real test of Saints resolve at the top. The Wolves, re-energised since the arrival of England coach Tony Smith, will fancy handing Saints their first back-to-back defeats of the season. A champion side usually responds to a shock defeat in style, so this game will tell us a lot about St Helens’ title aspirations. I’d expect a Saints win. Mind you, I expected one last weekend. But with early market moves showing Saints trading around [2.0], I’d certainly be snapping that up.

I like Hull KR to get back to winning ways after a dodgy patch on Sunday. Bradford are the visitors to Craven Park, and I lean to Rovers at [1.55]. Castleford would be my marginal call to record a home win of their own against Hull FC at [1.51].

This could be a really good weekend – my three tips would be Saints to win at Warrington, a home win for Wigan over the Catalans Dragons and Salford to record another good away win at the Celtic Crusaders.

George Riley makes his picks from what should be another magnificent weekend of Super League action…

Leeds have the incentive of pulling level at the top of the table when they make the short trip to Wakefield for Friday night’s televised Super League derby.

St Helens’ defeat at home to Salford last weekend was the biggest shock of the season so far. Absolutely no-one saw it coming and Saints have been scratching their heads ever since.

That remarkable slip-up gives champions Leeds the momentum but they will face a Wildcats side with play-off aspirations of their own. Sixth placed Wakefield trade at [6.8] to grab a crucial two points at Bellevue, and after defeat at Huddersfield last week, coach John Kear will have his side well primed for a response. Expect a big performance from centre Ryan Atkins against a team I am sure he will end up playing for in the near future.

However, the Rhinos ran in seven tries at Hull last weekend and I get the sense that the champions are finding form at just the right time ahead of the playoffs. At [1.2] there is no value, but I have seen enough of Leeds this season to expect them to come through a West Yorkshire bruiser and really turn up the heat on leaders St Helens.

Just two points separate Wigan, in the eighth and final berth, and Catalans Dragons below them. These two meet at the JJB in the night’s other fixture with the French side providing value at [3.05]. Last weekend’s win over high-flying Hull KR will boost the Dragons who are more than capable of beating any of the teams above them. Wigan are in decent nick and have run in 15 tries in their last two victories – eight at home to Quins last week, seven away at Hull the previous week. Brian Noble likes the taste of the business end of the season and I fancy the Cherry and Whites to withstand the fierce French barrage tonight to oblige Betfair punters at [1.53].

Of Saturday’s three games I’m heading to see if Huddersfield can find another victory at Harlequins. Quins were hung out to dry by their centre David Howell at Wigan last week and were very much in the contest until he became the first player in the competition to be red-carded this season. His subsequent ban will hit his side too. I’m looking forward to this fixture. At full-strength I’d take Quins every time but they are clearly suffering in the absence of injured playmakers Luke Dorn and Rob Purdham. The home side trade – available around [2.26] – are unusually underdogs in this two-horse race which tells you how they miss those two players. Huddersfield should find another win at [1.75], but this is very much a game that will split punters down the middle.

Salford look to make the most of that unbelievable St Helens win, with another away triumph at Celtic Crusaders. They should oblige at [1.48].

Warrington versus St Helens is Saturday’s televised game and this is a real, real test of Saints resolve at the top. The Wolves, re-energised since the arrival of England coach Tony Smith, will fancy handing Saints their first back-to-back defeats of the season. A champion side usually responds to a shock defeat in style, so this game will tell us a lot about St Helens’ title aspirations. I’d expect a Saints win. Mind you, I expected one last weekend. But with early market moves showing Saints trading around [2.0], I’d certainly be snapping that up.

I like Hull KR to get back to winning ways after a dodgy patch on Sunday. Bradford are the visitors to Craven Park, and I lean to Rovers at [1.55]. Castleford would be my marginal call to record a home win of their own against Hull FC at [1.51].

This could be a really good weekend – my three tips would be Saints to win at Warrington, a home win for Wigan over the Catalans Dragons and Salford to record another good away win at the Celtic Crusaders.

Whitewash evaded as tourists win final test.

The Lions rounded off their South African tour with a 28-9 victory in Johannesburg – a win that was backed at a high of [4.5] on Betfair.

A pair of Shane Williams scores in the first half provided the bedrock for the win, which was as good as guaranteed when Ugo Monye broke clear for a length of the pitch try.

So it’s a lost series for the Lions but the victory will have added a sheen of respectability after last weekend’s last minute defeat.

Punters had clearly been expecting a whitewash – the 3-0 series score was backed as low as [1.3] on the exchange.

George Riley makes his top three picks from what should be another bruiser of a weekend in the Super League…

At the business end of the season St Helens are going from strength to strength. A Friday night date at Salford means Mick Potter’s table-toppers can move six points clear at the summit by the time champions Leeds stroll out at the KC Stadium on Saturday evening.

And that will certainly happen. Salford have steadied the ship after their dreadful start but are nowhere near as dangerous a side without injured England half-back Richie Myler. So even without their own injured stars Matt Gidley and Keiron Cunningham, Saints will be too strong and, at [1.1], aren’t even worth a look.

I like the look of Wigan v Harlequins in the TV game on Friday at the JJB. Quins coach Brian McDermott spent an hour with me in the 5Live studio this week chatting about the game and his enthusiasm is infectious. Quins are a [3.9] shot with Betfair punters to spring a shock at the [1.39] Warriors and, even given their injury woes, I’m tempted.

Luke Dorn and Rob Purdham are massive losses as playmakers for Quins, while Wigan are without Tim Smith. Granted, Wigan is the safe call here, and produced a terrific win at Hull KR last week. Quins lost out to the final kick off the game in losing at Wakefield on Sunday and I’m going to go against all logic and go for an away win.

Leeds Rhinos televised trip to out of sorts Hull FC is Saturday’s highlight. This is usually a fierce contest, I remember watching a first half finish 0-0 between these two sides at the KC a few years ago. Hull’s struggles of late though are evident in their [4.7] trading on Betfair, with Leeds likely to be too good at [1.25]. The Rhinos have hit top form in recent weeks and have veteran centre Keith Senior making his 500th appearance. Even without star full-back Brent Webb, Leeds should be too hot to prevent an upset.

Warrington’s early season wobbles have been steadied since the arrival of Tony Smith and they will beat the Celtic Crusaders in Wales. The [6.6] about Celtic is a nice shout given their wins over Wigan and Bradford but realistically I can’t see it.

Hull KR go to the Catalans Dragons in a bruiser of a contest. This is 11th against third on paper so you may expect Rovers to do the business at 2.56. Infact you may like those odds. The Dragons are [1.55] favourites with Betfair punters to beat the side eight places above them. Sure they are a tough proposition on home soil but those odds make little sense to me. I’m happy to take a punt on another value way win.

Two West Yorkshire derbies wrap up round 19. Huddersfield v Wakefield and Bradford v Castleford on Sunday could both go either way. So let’s look at the odds. Both away sides are currently trading around [3.5] and I would expect at least one of these games to provide an away victory. Castleford to win at Bradford would probably be my call out of the two.

I like what Nathan Brown has done at Huddersfield and I expect Wakefield will find it tough going at the Galpharm. The Bulls are one of those sides struggling with the expectancy of their past glories and on their home patch at Odsal the crowd can get on their backs. They can beat anyone on their day but I like the look of the Tigers to tame the Bulls.

So I’m being quite brave this weekend. My three tips are a [3.9] Quins away win at Wigan, a [3.5] Tigers triumph at the Bulls, and Hull KR to slay the Dragons in France at [2.56]. One or two shrewd punts should make it an enjoyable weekend.

Talk about kicking 15 men when they’re down – Geoffrey Riddle rounds off his grim (but deadly accurate) tour predictions by tipping Ian McGeechan’s men to become the first Lions side for almost 120 years to be whitewashed by South Africa.

Ever since Bill MacLagan led the Lions on their first tour to South Africa in 1891, the Springboks have never managed to whitewash the British and Irish tourists in a Test series.

The Lions have come away from the Rainbow Nation four times without a win, but on each occasion, they scraped at least one draw. It is a record that most Lions fans will be clinging on to this week ahead of the third and final confrontation in Johannesburg.

All the pre-match hype has focused on the Lions’ anger at Schalk Burger’s eye-gouging incident, but if punters were to look through the red mist, they would see that the tourists’ cupboard is threadbare. The Lions’ luck with injuries and suspensions has been appalling, and the count now stands at 11 of the original 37-man party who are unavailable. Moreover, the latest injuries to the Lions could not have had a bigger impact on their chances of salvaging any pride from this tour at Ellis Park.

Losing Welsh props Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins is a catastrophe. If you look at the two Tests played so far, Jones and Jenkins were playing in tandem from the 44th minute of the Durban Test until the 45th minute of the violent clash at Loftus Versfeld last week. The forward platform that they helped create saw the Lions win that period of the series by 30 points to 15.

It is going to be a significant challenge for Phil Vickery, who is still suffering from a throat infection, if he is to front-up successfully against Tendai Mtawarira, the South African prop who gave him such a beasting in Durban. It is a test that even Graham Rowntree, the Lions forwards coach, is unsure about.

He said: “It’ll be a huge psychological challenge for Phil after what happened in the first Test. He will have to pick up technically and emotionally.”

The concussion to Brian O’Driscoll and the wrist injury to Jamie Roberts is also a severe blow. O’Driscoll and Roberts have been consistently the Lions’ most potent attacking weapon. The Irishman also plays a key role in Shaun Edwards’ umbrella defensive system, acting as a blitz defender, a task which O’Driscoll goes about with the gusto of a blind-side flanker.

These injuries have therefore ripped the heart out of the Lions. It would have been horrible enough if this situation had occurred before the first Test, when the tourists were full of optimism and momentum. But the Lions come into this final game on the back of a heart-breaking 28-25 loss. Captain Paul O’Connell admitted on Tuesday that it was difficult to motivate the players after that Loftus defeat. Even the most jovial and positive tourist, Ian McGeechan, could not remember a time when he felt as sad as he did after the Springboks pinched it in Pretoria.

To top it all off, the British media seem to have ignored the significant fact that the hosts are seething as well. The ridiculous posturing of Springbok coach Peter de Villiers aside, the South African’s are smarting from the fact that their glorious series victory has been completely overshadowed by Burger’s five seconds of madness.

There is a huge feeling of resentment in the Bok camp that they have not been given credit where credit is due.

Gary Gold, the Springbok assistant coach, who can string a sentence together without the moronic ramblings of de Villiers, said: “We worked really hard to beat what we thought was a world class Lions team, and we don’t really feel that we have received enough credit for that.

“Winning this series was an extremely tough challenge for us, and some of the players felt it was as tough as anything they have ever experienced on the rugby field. To come back with 20 minutes to go like we did in the test in Pretoria was an amazing achievement and one we should be proud of.”

If any doubts remain about just how motivated the Springboks are for this, then it pays to listen to how Gold signed off.

“I think there was a lot of expectation ahead of the series, and when we dominated the first hour of the Durban Test I suppose we should have pushed on to win by 30 to 40 points.
“And I agree that for much of the Pretoria test we were outplayed and made a lot of mistakes. There is a lot of incentive for us to win this series 3-0, however, and that is what we are aiming to do.”

I completely understand where Betfair layers are coming from in offering up the Springboks at [1.41]. Two Tests and two narrow defeats within the handicap indicate that the Lions have been underrated. But this is a different challenge, with a thoroughly weaker team. And if anything, the changes that de Villiers has made makes the home side stronger in all the right positions.

Gone is Ruan Pienaar, who missed numerous opportunities at goal last weekend. Gone also are centres Jean de Villiers and Adrian Jacobs who looked defensively frail against O’Driscoll and Roberts. In their places slots in the thoroughly reliable fly-half Morne Steyn, who kicked the winner last week, and Jaque Fourie and Wynand Olivier combine to create a centre pairing that was devastating throughout 2006 and 2007.

It’s whitewash time and I’m backing the Springboks by more than 12.5 points at [2.54].

The series may have gone but there are big positives to take from this Lions tour and a win in Saturday’s third test is nothing more than Ian McGeechan’s men deserve, says Wales and Cardiff centre Tom Shanklin.

Last Saturday’s second Test was one of the best games I’ve seen in a long time. Apart from the first minute eye gouging on Luke Fitzgerald it was a game that contained every aspect of modern rugby: skill, pace, tension, thunderous tackles, not to mention a great deal of pride. Morne Steyn’s last minute penalty was a cruel way to end an epic game which I strongly believe the Lions deserved to win.

The main talking point this week has been the Schalk Burger incident and the support of Peter de Villiers. In my opinion, any contact with the eyes is a straight red card. I am uncertain which case I find more appalling; Burger for trying to blind Fitzgerald or de Villiers condoning the action. In any case the touch judge and referee should have sent the guilty party off.

The Lions finished the game with both of the starting props and the two starting centres going off injured. How a team can still be functioning and pushing for the win in this situation is unbelievable – it is a huge credit to the spirit and pride of the team. It was obvious from the start that the Lions were not going to take a backward step. The Boks are the most physical team in world rugby and if you want to beat them you have to match them – something the Lions did for 80 minutes.

There were many stand out performances. If it wasn’t for his greying hair Simon Shaw could have easily been mistaken for a 22-year-old spring chicken. Starting his first Lions test in 12 years, Shaw was immense, spoiling Springbok ball every chance he got, taking every kick-off available and emptying the tank around the field. Stephen Jones stamped his authority on the game. His beautiful half break and offload to send Rob Kearney into the corner was a joy to watch. Not only did he create the try, he slotted the conversion from the touchline. Jones accounted for 80% of the Lions points and was faultless during the afternoon.

Adam Jones and Mathew Rees were called in to strengthen the scrum. The first test showed what an important part of the game this is. Together with Gethin Jenkins they formed the first all Welsh front row since 1955. From the first scrum you could see parity. None so more evident then when Adam Jones and co destroyed ‘The Beast’ on the Lions five metre line. A weakness in the first Test turned into a weapon for the second.

Finally, my man of the match was Rob Kearney, a late replacement for Lee Byrne. The mix and balance to his game was brilliant. He counter-attacked when it was on and kicked deep into space when under pressure. Kearney was a constant threat in attack looking to take the Boks on at every occasion. He will definitely be a marked man this Saturday.

You would be stupid to write the Lions off just yet. The loss of two props and Brian O’Driscoll will be a blow, but let’s not forget the Lions are made up of world class international players who have performed at the highest levels. I would like to see Riki Flutey replace the injured O’Driscoll, and Welsh wizard Shane Williams drafted into the starting 15. The Test series is gone but a Lions Test win is still definitely on and that’s why I’m backing the Lions to win [4.2].

My Third Test Starting XV

15 Rob Kearney
14 Tommy Bowe
13 Jamie Roberts
12 Ricky Flutey
11 Shane Williams
10 Stephen Jones
9 Mike Phillips
8 Jamie Heaslip
7 Martyn Williams
6 Tom Croft
5 Paul O’Connell
4 Simon Shaw
3 John Hayes
2 Mathew Rees
1 Andrew Sheridan

Brave Lions hearts broken as Boks fly-half punishes O’Gara indiscipline to wrap up series win…

South Africa drifted to [7.0] before Morne Steyn won the match and the Test series for the hosts with the last kick of an epic contest in Pretoria.

Steyn struck the winning points from his own half after Lions subsitute Ronan O’Gara was penalised for tackling Fourie du Preez in mid-air.

It was a devastating end to a thrilling contest for The Lions who came in to [1.25] as they dominated the game in the first half and went in at half-time 16-8 ahead thanks to a try from Rob Kearney and kicks from Stephen Jones.

The match was much more fiercely fought after the break with tempers threatening to boil over between Andrew Sheridan and Bakkies Botha as the Springboks fought to get back into the match and the Lions tried to hang on for what would have been a famous series leveller. The tourists took the brunt of the intensity with props Gethin Jenkins and Adam Jones as well as centres Brian O’Driscoll and Jamie Roberts all going off injured.

In the end it was too much for the Lions as Bryan Habana’s piercing run through the Lions defence resulted in a try before JP Pietersen went over and substitute centre Jaque Fourie ran in a crucial score six minutes from time to put the Boks three points ahead.

When, minutes later, Stephen Jones kept his composure to level with a penalty from the touchline it looked as though the Lions were on for their second draw in four days and the stalemate was matched at [1.51].

But then came the fatal blow as O’Gara hauled down Preez and Steyn stepped up to give his side a 28-25 victory.

The Lions had heroes all over the field – in particular debutant Simon Shaw who was voted man of the match for his awesome display in the second row – but this test defeat marks the tourists’ seventh in a row and leaves them with only pride to play for in next weekend’s third test.

For the Springboks, who are now conquerors of the Lions as well as World Champions and Tri-Nations champions, the win completes an illustrious hat-trick. They were strongly fancied to win the series from the outset and traded no higher than [2.22].

This unpredictable Super League season produces an intriguing round of matches with the Leeds-Bradford derby the heavyweight contest. George Riley has his best bets from another weekend of league fixtures.

It was another five out of six effort from this column last weekend, although Huddersfield’s shock home wobble against Castleford was not on the menu.

I watched Leeds absolutely hammer in-form Harlequins at the Stoop last Saturday evening and can see no different story when the Bulls roll across town on Friday night.

Bradford were battered at home by St Helens, and once again it is saints and the Rhinos in a League of their own at the top. Leeds are unbackable really with Betfair punters, trading at [1.2], with the [6.2] available on Bradford far more tempting. But with Matt Diskin and Ryan Bailey back for Leeds though, it is not tempting enough and I expect the home side to keep up the pressure on Saints at the top.

Saints also play at home on Friday, with the Celtic Crusaders at [27.0] hardly worth a look. Yes the Welsh side lost only 4-0 to Saints on their home patch at Brewery Field, but given the mood Saints are in at the moment you can expect a big score against the injury-hit Bridgend boys.

Friday night’s third game looks like the most compelling in terms of value. Salford trade at [3.3] with Betfair punters, to turn over a Huddersfield side who have spent the week coming to terms with that unexpected home loss to out of sorts Castleford. I’d expect a big response from the Giants, and Salford’s hopes will depend on the late fitness test facing their star halfback Richie Myler. If he plays, I think the Reds have a decent shot at making a mockery of those odds. If Myler doesn’t make it I expect Huddersfield to strengthen their play-off push.

I like the look of Saturday evening’s Castleford versus Catalans contest too. A fantastic crowd of over 18,000 watched the Dragons lose to Warrington in the first ever Super League game to be played in Barcelona. [1.66] for a Tigers win on Betfair is marginally better value than I’d have expected given their terrific win at the Galpharm, and I expect an unchanged side to edge an entertaining Jungle joust. When Michael Shenton, Rangi chase and Mitchell Sargent are in the mood, Cas are great to watch, my only fear is for their fragile goal line defence against a French side which loves to attack.

Each of Sunday’s three games could go either way, with Wakefield hosting Harlequins, Hull FC going to Warrington and Wigan looking to end a torrid week with a win at Hull KR. How the Warriors respond to the loss of Gareth Hock and the uncertainty over their coach’s future is anyone’s guess. I’ve heard from a reliable source that Brian noble’s job was indeed offered to Stephen Kearney. The Kiwi is good mates with Noble and called him to tell him as much. Hock’s impending ban for cocaine is a shocker too, and all told you have to favour the [1.62] Rovers at home to wound the [2.5] Warriors.

Hull FC look great value at [4.3] to win at unpredictable Warrington ([1.23]), yet can you back that with any confidence given the Wolves new-found resilience under Tony Smith. This is definitely a contest that could provide any result possible. I expect a home win, but knowing Hull coach Richard Agar as I do, if he gets his players properly primed there could be a value away win here.

Harlequins started brilliantly against Leeds before being overpowered. They trade at [2.2] to win at Wakefield, and are certainly capable. They miss the guile of Luke Dorn badly though, likewise captain Rob Purdham.

With neither of the big too offering any kind of value ahead of what should be routine home wins, my tips this week would be Castleford at 1.66 to win at home against the Catalans Dragons. I like Hull KR at [1.62] to do enough against Wigan, and my third selection is going to be a brave one, backing Salford at [3.3] to beat hard-hitting Huddersfield.

Geoffrey Riddle provides some much needed objectivity as he weighs up Ian McGeechan’s men’s chances of becoming only the third Lions side to come back from 1-0 down to win a Test series.

When betting on any sporting event in a foreign land that involves a British team, it is always wise to read the local reports. The process gives you an objective view, which is crucial to betting. And if you were to believe the British press without consulting their South African counterparts in the lead up to Saturday’s Test match between the British & Irish Lions and the Springboks, you probably wouldn’t see anything wrong with backing the tourists at [3.65] to win the vital clash in Pretoria on Saturday.

That would be an enormous mistake though, because quite simply, if you look at the first Test objectively, the Lions were massively outclassed. Any side that can take off their five best players and still be 26-7 ahead with 13 minutes to go is in complete control. The Lions’ pack was demolished. They lost four scrums from 11 feeds, and Phil Vickery gave away four penalties, from which nine points were taken. In all the hullaballoo about Vickery, analysts seemed to miss the fact that the Lions lost three line-outs – from just nine throws – and one of those was a catch and drive which resulted in a touchdown. The 30-metre steamrollering in the maul was painful to watch, too.

A Lions fightback to take the scoreline to 26-21 it may have been, but consider actually what you saw up front on Saturday in that final quarter. There were just three scrums once all of the front-row changes had been made – a flimsy formguide for those who believe that forwards coach Graham Rowntree can somehow work the oracle in just seven days.

What’s more, the Lions have been encamped in Cape Town ever since that loss. Anyone who tuned in to watch the Emerging Springboks salvage a draw on Tuesday will have seen what the weather was like. Driving rain, squalls and cold temperatures have beset the Cape all week. A wet and windy training ground at sea level is no preparation for a crunch Test match in sunny Pretoria, 1,753 meters at altitude.

The British press have tried to dismiss the altitude factor by saying that only half the Springbok squad ply their regular trade on the high veld, but they ignore the fact that the squad were camped in Johannesburg when they met up, and they play there regularly during the Super 14 season. Line-outs are more of a feature in games at altitude, because the ball flies further, encouraging a territorial kicking game. The Lions have ignored this by keeping Stephen Jones at fly-half at the expense of Ronan O’Gara, who likes nothing more than kicking to the corners. If Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha can dominate the throw-in once more, it could be curtains for the tourists.

The current price of [1.41] about the world champions indicates a handicap line of between six and seven points, something which is echoed by most high street bookmakers, although some are offering a more realistic nine-point start. Rugby betting expert and former Bath lock Brian Cusack believes that it will be harder for the Lions to rectify their weaknesses.

“On the one hand you can say that South Africa will shore up their centres, and will go on and win comfortably. On the other, you could say the Lions will make their pack meatier and will be competitive. I think the former is easier to achieve and much more likely.”

That outlook is shared by the Springboks assistant coach, Gary Gold. “The Lions know where they went wrong in Durban and we are expecting a much more intense forward onslaught from them,” Gold said. “But if they feel more confident because of the way it went for them in the last 20 minutes, and feel they now have the answers to where they went wrong, then we are happy for them to think that.

“They will be thinking that they just need parity to beat us. We are working hard on our defence this week, but we would still like to prevent them from getting too much ball through their pack, which is one of the reasons we have included five forwards on our bench.”

The Lions face a massive task on the high veld. They will look to press home their advantage in midfield where Brian O’Driscoll and the admirable Jamie Roberts have a significant edge over the injured Adrian Jacobs. They will hope that Matthew Rees and Adam Jones will shore up a faulty scrum and that Simon Shaw, who is the tallest, and by far the heaviest lock on tour, will beef up the pack. And even if Luke Fitzgerald does finish better than the hapless Ugo Monye, all this is still unlikely to be enough. South Africa will be better.

Only twice in Lions history have the tourists come back from 1-0 down to win a series. A lot has been written about Ian McGeechan’s impressive coaching performance in 1989 when a Finlay Calder-inspired Lions roared back against Australia. But it was 90 years earlier when the Lions managed it the first time. Reverend Matthew Mullineux led the Lions to a 3-1 series victory over Australia, having lost 13-3 in the first Test in Sydney. God, it seemed, was on their side, and he may have to be again if the Lions are to salvage anything in the Rainbow Nation this time around.

Cardiff and Wales centre Tom Shanklin picks his starting XV for Saturday’s Second Test and explains why he believes the Lions can win in Pretoria.

Many were quick to criticise the Lions performance in their First Test defeat but they played better rugby than South Africa and took away far more positives from the game than people realise.

The Springboks didn’t really try to attack and mostly relied upon our errors in the first half whereas many of the Lions players looked very strong. Mike Phillips played brilliantly. He was always a threat on the breakdown, gave the Lions a good go forward around the fringes and was very unlucky not to have scored three tries. The centres, Jamie Roberts and Brian O’Driscoll, played extremely well and were key to the Lions attack. Tom Croft was always there at the right time and played like an open side flanker around the field, being the first at the breakdown and the first at players’ shoulders once they’d made the break.

As soon as rain started to fall at Newlands on Tuesday night, I knew the Lions were in for a fight. Any possibility of free flowing attacking rugby was shattered by the appalling conditions. The Lions tried hard to stamp their authority on the game but countless errors and turnovers created havoc. Luke Fitzgerald and Shane Williams, both hungry for the ball, attacked with solid hands but the slippery conditions plagued them. James Hook took his points well and looked to take the Emerging Boks on at every occasion. If you’re looking for a player to come on to change a game, Hook is the best choice. I think he’ll get a bench spot this weekend.

For Saturday’s game I hope they start the second test the way they ended the first. The Lions need a solid set piece, allowing the backs to get over the game line in the first phase attack. It’s crucial that the players are more disciplined and display good attacking intent. The penalties they give away eats into the momentum of all the hard work they’ve achieved.

In terms of the starting 15, I’d like to see Shane Williams play although I don’t think he’ll make it. I know he hasn’t received great feedback from critics on this tour but he offers something that the other wingers don’t. I’d also like to see Adam Jones in the starting pack. I’m not sure whether it was down to the Springboks tiring out – I’m not the biggest know all on scrums – but when Jones came on to replace Phil Vickery after 45 minutes he made an immediate impact and strengthened the scrum.

The inclusion of Schalk Burger for the Second Test could be a crucial threat to the Lions. Last Saturday he strengthened the pack and was all over the break down, especially in the second half when the Lions looked to up the tempo.

I know I said it last week but this Saturday will be an extremely tight game. Last week the Lions came into the game late. They’ll spend this week correcting the errors they’ve made and on Saturday they’ll be ready from the off. The Lions outscored the Springboks three tries to two in the First Test so this game will come down to discipline. Penalties are too critical to give away.

Although I expect the game to be extremely tight, I think the Lions will have the edge and for that reason I recommend backing them at [3.55].

My starting XV for this Saturday:

15 Lee Byrne
14 Tommy Bowe
13 Brian O’driscoll
12 Jamie Roberts
11 Luke Fitzgerald
10 Stephen Jones
9 Mike Phillips
8 Jamie Heasilp
7 Paul Wallace
6 Tom Croft
5 Simon Shaw
4 Paul O’Connell
3 Adam Jones
2 Matthew Rees
1 Gethin Jenkins

Late try means tourists surrender 100% warm-up record as lucky punters land big-priced draw…

The British & Irish Lions traded at a low of [1.03] as they lost their 100% warm-up game record in an encounter described by Ian McGeechan as, “A kicking game in a monsoon.”

The Lions lead 13-6 against the Emerging Springboks, with a try from Keith Earls and kicks from Ronan O’Gara and James Hook, before Boks subsitute Danwel Dewas ran in out wide and Willem de Waal converted to set up a draw which was matched at [200.00].

However, the tourists, who can be backed at [7.4] to win their test series against South Africa, have seen their series odds little affected by the result. After losing the first test, they regarded this midweek fixture as an opportunity to recover their momentum but, although the hosts celebrated as though they had won at the final whistle, McGeechan won’t be overly perturbed by the result as he knows that conditions in Pretoria on Saturday are likely to make for a very different game.

He said: “It was a potential banana skin we got through. It was a game we had to get out of. I feel sorry for the players, it was very difficult for them, basically a kicking game in a monsoon. Not a lot of rugby was played there.”

Despite the torrid conditions, the coach will have been impressed by the performances of prop Tim Payne and full-back Keith Earls. Payne, who was called into the squad as a replacement earlier this week, was particularly assured and may have played himself into contention for Saturday’s crucial test match.

However, with the Lions needing to win on Saturday to level the series and set up an enticing decider for the following week, few changes are expected to be made to the side which lost 26-21 to the World Champions in the first test. Shane Williams, who threatened with a few jinking runs, looks lilkely to miss out again.

The Lions are currently [3.55] in the Second Test match odds market with South Africa available at [1.41]. A second draw in a week can be matched at [41.0].

See Betting.Betfair for Lions news in the build up to Saturday as well as Tom Shanklin’s tips for the second test and Geoffrey Riddle’s big match previews.

Reeling from their humiliation in the scrum and forced to start with two replacement props, the Lions are in for a tough time on Tuesday night against a strong Emerging Springboks side, says Tony Calvin.

Saturday was an opportunity lost for the British and Irish Lions, but Tuesday’s match against the Emerging Springboks threatens more disappointment as the home side’s coach Dick Muir has named a very strong squad indeed.

The problem is that many will think that the Betfair market has pretty much factored that in already, with the Lions trading at 1.47 on Betfair and asked to overcome a handicap of “just” six or seven points on most lines.

So what is a Betfair punter to do?

After the weekend humiliation in the scrum, it cannot be a positive that the Lions are forced to start with their two tour replacement props, Tim Payne and John Hayes, on Tuesday night. They can’t have been in the country for more than two days.

And it would be fair to say that Payne and Hayes are noted more for their work around the park, rather than in the blast furnace of the scrum. If the first couple of set-pieces go badly for the Lions, then it could be déjà vu. And I wouldn’t expect Phil Vickery would relish coming on to shore up a malfunctioning scrum.

The Lions back five is another solid if unspectacular group of individuals , with all bar Martyn Williams known for a more confrontational approach than invention. And not too many teams thrive in South Africa by adopting the head-on approach.

The three-quarters obviously house some talented individuals – the likes of Shane Williams, Riki Flutey and Luke Fitzgerald were seen as Test starters at the beginning of the tour – but none bar Fitzgerald look to have too much chance of playing their way into the Test side, and expecting them to suddenly gel could be naïve. We saw how physical opposition can make life difficult for the midweek Lions when they scraped home 20-8 against the Southern Kings last Tuesday.

And this Emerging Springboks side certainly have the look of a very nuggety side, indeed.

There are four Blue Bulls in the pack, and one senses their back row will give the tourists plenty of trouble. And while the back line lacks class, there are some meaty runners in there, notably full-back Zane Kirchner, and they will at least have the familiar Golden Lions half-back pairing of Jano Vermaak and Earl Rose pulling the strings.

There are two ways of looking at this match.

Either the midweek Lions side will inspire the Test side, as they did in 1997, with a resounding win or the seeds of the forwards’ doubt will seep into the tourists’ play and be exploited by an Emerging Springbok pack that on paper has a very handy look to it.

It’s the latter for me, and I’ll go for the jugular and lay the Lions sub 1.5 as the play here.

Teams:

Emerging Springboks: 15 Zane Kirchner (Blue Bulls), 14 Luzuko Vulindlu (The Sharks), 13 Deon van Rensburg (Leopards), 12 Morgan Newman (Western Province), 11 Bjorn Basson (Griquas), 10 Earl Rose (Golden Lions), 9 Jano Vermaak (Golden Lions), 8 Duane Vermeulen (Western Province), 7 Jean Deysel (Sharks), 6 Dewald Potgieter (c) (Blue Bulls), 5 Wilhelm Steenkamp (Blue Bulls), 4 Steven Sykes (Sharks), 3 Werner Kruger (Blue Bulls), 2 Bandise Maku (Blue Bulls), 1 Wian du Preez (Free State Cheetahs).

Replacements: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg (Western Province), 17 Pat Cilliers (Sharks), 18 Franco van der Merwe (Golden Lions), 19 Jacques Botes (Sharks), 20 Heini Adams (Blue Bulls), 21 Willem de Waal (Western Province), 22 Danwel Demas (Free State Cheetahs).

British and Irish Lions: 15 Keith Earls (Munster and Ireland), 14 Shane Williams (Ospreys and Wales), 13 Riki Flutey (Wasps and England), 12 Gordan D’Arcy (Leinster and Ireland), 11 Luke Fitzgerald (Leinster and Ireland), 10 Ronan O’Gara (Munster and Ireland, capt), 9 Harry Ellis (Leicester and England), 8 Andy Powell (Cardiff Blues and Wales), 7 Martyn Williams (Cardiff Blues and Wales), 6 Joe Worsley (Wasps and England), 5 Nathan Hines (Perpignan and Scotland), 4 Donncha O’Callaghan (Munster and Ireland), 3 John Hayes (Munster and Ireland), 2 Ross Ford (Edinburgh and Scotland), 1 Tim Payne (Wasps and England),

Replacements: 16 Lee Mears (Bath and England), 17 Phil Vickery (Wasps and England), 18 Simon Shaw (Wasps and England), 19 David Wallace (Munster and Ireland), 20 Mike Blair (Edinburgh and Scotland), 21 James Hook (Ospreys and Wales), 22 Ugo Monye (Harlequins and England).

With injuries plaguing South Africa’s preparations, including one to the talismanic Schalk Burger, this is the Lions’ best chance of winning a Test on this tour. They may not go on to win, but they should go close in a low-scoring affair, says Geoffrey Riddle.

A towering Irish lock. Ian McGeechan in South Africa. We knew the similarities with the successful Lions of 1974 before this tour began. But on the eve of the first Test at King’s Park Durban, the class of 2009 go into their highly-charged clash with the world champion Springboks unbeaten, just like Willie John McBride’s pride had done 35 years ago.

Do not underestimate the power of momentum. The Lions will run out onto the pitch bristling with confidence, safe in the knowledge that their preparation has been meticulous, the methods that they employ are working, and their personnel are the best that the tour can provide. None of which can be applied to the Springboks.

South Africa go into this ferocious encounter seriously undercooked. Those of you who play rugby will know what a five week lay-off can mean. Gloucester fans will recall ruefully the consequences of what even a break of a fortnight can do.

Jean de Villiers has not started a game since April 19th. His centre partner, Adrian Jacobs, has been suffering a shoulder injury that forced him out almost two months ago. It was serious enough for him to contemplate immediate surgery, but the draw of the Lions was too great for him. Only the front row of John Smit, Bismark du Plessis and Beast Mtawarira started in the warm up against the scratch Namibian XV last month.

And then there is Ruan Pienaar, the fly-half who has missed the bulk of the Super 14 season with ankle and ligament injuries. The axis of Fourie Du Preez, Pienaar and Jean de Villiers, although potentially explosive, is horribly untried, and it is a wonder the coach Peter de Villiers did not gamble with Morne Steyn, the Bulls pivot who has been in sensational form. Still, it is not as if de Villiers will be searching for excuses if his Pienaar exercise backfires, Steyn has yet to gain an international cap. We haven’t even mentioned the loss of Schalk Burger, either. To lose a talisman such as that before a contest of this magnitude is devastating.

This is the Lions best, and probably only, chance to beat South Africa, and the 7.5-point start at [1.92] on Betfair looks manageable for McGeechan’s tourists.

As far as how the game might pan out, the loss of Burger changes the dynamic of how the home side’s back row will operate. Burger is not a fetcher. The Springboks have a whole host of fetcher-like opensides, but have recently opted for the pace, mobility and sheer size of Burger. His replacement, Heinrich Brussouw, is a turnover specialist, and the Free State flanker was instrumental in the Lions’ enormous turnover count against the Cheetahs in the third tour game. But the tourist’s No.7 that day was Joe Worsley, not Ireland’s David Wallace. McGeechan has ensured that his team have the best chance at competing at the contentious breakdown by including Martyn Williams on the bench, meaning Brussouw will be pushed to the limit for the full 80 minutes.

Gary Gold, the Springbok assistant coach, is well aware though of how the Lions will operate at breakdown time. The former London Irish coach understands intimately how the breakdown is managed in Europe, and his comments could well hold the key to the style of contest we are likely to see.

“The breakdown is coached really well in the northern hemisphere. I think that is because they have more breakdowns there, there is a greater stress on slow-ball management than there is with us in the south. There is a lot of emphasis over there on how the players operate together at the breakdown.”

The Lions scrum-half, Mike Phillips, has had problems all tour with getting the ball away from the breakdown fast enough, giving the opposition defence enough time to regroup. It is a worry, and if he continues in that vein the Lions may find themselves running up blind alleyways all afternoon.

And that probably is the most easily grasped aspect of this encounter. Like World Cup finals, this will be a furious match-up between two thoroughly uncompromising groups of competitors. With South Africa not at their best for this, the skill sets of the two teams are likely to be more evenly matched, and a low-scoring game is a highly-likely scenario.

In a battle of this nature, it is interesting to see that the spread firms initially priced up total match points at 40-43, they are now 39-42, whereas the biting point on Betfair is a more respectable 40.5. Now that is low, but when you consider the words of Springbok skipper John Smit, it may not be low enough.

“Our priority is to win,” said Smit in response to a press conference question about the gritty World Cup final in 2007, where his team won 15-6 in a game dominated by kickers.
“The person who couldn’t appreciate that final win doesn’t know their rugby. The Lions series will be similar, and it’s a final of sorts as it’s such a special event played over three tests.
“If it takes five penalties or five tries to win the series, that’s what we’ll do. We have the players to do both.”

I’m pretty sure we’ll get the former in Durban, rather than the latter.

George Riley looks at the action ahead of this weekend’s Super League clashes…

I watched St Helens produce a rugby league masterclass last weekend to move four clear of Leeds and Mick Potter’s side already look huge favourites to finish top of the pile.

Yet as the last two seasons have proved, that counts for nothing if Saints slip up in the Grand Final, and the Rhinos won’t be panicking yet.

I’m down at the Stoop this week to commentate on Leeds’ trip to Harlequins, and this could be an absolute belter. The Rhinos have often come unstuck against the London side, brilliantly coached by the former Leeds assistant Brian McDermott. A Quins win at [2.42] could see them up to second in Super League – above Leeds – and that is some incentive.

As tipped in this column last week, Quins were the value call to grab a result at high-flying Hull KR. Overlooked for England, Rob Purdham, Louis McCarthy-Scarsbrook and Will Sharp all shone and they will give Leeds a real go this weekend. The Rhinos needed a late intercept try from teenager Kallum Watkins to rescue a home win against Huddersfield and Saturday’s rendezvous at the Stoop should be intense. Leeds are trading at [1.4] with Betfair punters to move within two points of saints who play on Sunday. I do back Leeds, but with little confidence. My fellow rugby league hacks have been giving me grief all week that my local team will get turned over by the Londoners.

Friday’s two games see a televised West Yorkshire derby at the Galpharm, and a trip to Humberside for Salford. I’ll back Huddersfield at [1.26] to oust Castleford ([3.7]).

Again this could be tighter than you’d think. The Giants did enough to beat Leeds last week and will be smarting at that so I expect a big response from Nathan Brown’s boys. Cas started brilliantly at Saints but then got walloped, and their goal-line defence was woeful. Granted they missed internationals Michael Shenton and Joe Westerman who will be back this weekend but I fear in the continued absence of halfback Brent Sherwin this will be a sixth straight Super League defeat for the Tigers. After a fine start to the season Cas are in freefall.

Hull FC are very up and down but I think they will have enough to beat Salford. Richard Agar’s side were walloped at Wakefield last weekend and are clinging on to their top-eight place as one of four teams on 14 points. The Reds have started to find their feet under their blossoming teenage playmaker Richie Myler, so may well appeal at [3.75], but I lean towards the [1.29] Black and Whites.

As Leeds go to London, Saturday’s other two games see Hull KR in Bridgend and Warrington in Perpignan. Both of these games could go either way so I’ll be looking at the value backs.

Rovers slipped up last week and really missed their two England men Shaun Briscoe and Peter Fox – both of whom are back this week. But Justin Morgan’s side are still going well in third, a point off Leeds and trade at [1.25] to beat the Celtic Crusaders. That should be the call.

Crusaders secured only their second ever Super League win over Wigan last weekend so it would be a big call to back them at [3.25] to secure their first ever back-to-back wins. They play with confidence, and will be buoyed by that brilliant Wigan win. So do you have the confidence to back them? I’ll make that call on Saturday morning I think!

Warrington are incredibly frustrating and are underdogs to win at the Catalans Dragons but I see a win for the English side. The Dragons have a few injuries, and Wolves coach Tony Smith was in France only last week to oversee England’s thumping dismantling of the French. I tend to think Warrington’s surprise home defeat to Bradford last week was down in no small part to having their coach Smith away with England all week. I expect a response.

So to Sunday’s Bradford versus St Helens showdown. Normally a belter this, but the Bulls aren’t the force they were at Odsal, and are clear outsiders. Saints will trade at heavy odds-on and you have to fancy them to turn the screw at the top of Super League. A young Saints side were awesome last week, in the absence of James Roby, little Kyle Eastmond sparkled, and Saints will defy a vocal Bradford crowd to march on.

Betting.betfair.com’s newest recruit – Cardiff, Wales and British Lions centre Tom Shanklin – on injury heartbreak, the key battles in the first test and the Francois Steyn factor.

The tour so far has seen the British & Irish Lions undefeated with four games still to go. With the first test only two days away the warm up games have played a pivotal role as a lot of the touted starting test team haven’t gelled as well as expected. This has opened up a few surprises for others, namely Tommy Bowe, Ugo Monye, James Hook, Jamie Roberts, Lee Mears, and Tom Croft.

At a glance the tour has been good, as the Lions continued to win despite not playing their best. Nonetheless, as each game has passed they have made a steady improvement. Some players have played five or six games which on a tight tour schedule can be hard work, but at the same time it commands squad intensity and camaraderie. Martyn Williams and Gethin Jenkins have been updating me via texts on how they’ve been getting on. They’ve said how good the tour has been because everyone in the squad is getting on really well. Now the final warm up game has passed however, the mood in the camp has changed as they wait upon selection, all vying for their first cap on tour.

Watching my friends and teammates play in what could be their first test this Saturday for the British & Irish Lions – ultimately the pinnacle of their career – it’s hard to describe the feeling of what could have been. To go from being selected – an honour you can only dream of achieving in your rugby career – to withdrawing from the squad through injury within what felt like a matter of days, was incredibly hard to deal with. It’s specially tough after having gone through virtually the same ordeal during the 2005 tour. However disappointing it has been though, I’m a huge fan of rugby and like everyone else, I have thoroughly enjoyed watching what I hope to be a historic tour.

The first test this weekend will undoubtedly be extremely tight, with the Springboks having selected a strong team that’s included a few surprises. To name but a couple, Heinrich Brussow is playing instead of Schalk Burger and Adi Jacobs instead of Jacque Fourie. Ruan Pienaar is starting at 10 after six weeks out with an injury and Francois Steyn is starting at full back due to key injuries in that position.

I think the key battles this weekend will be Jean de Villiers v Jamie Roberts. Both are big physical men who are key to giving their team go forward ball. Both the Lions and Springboks will look to unleash these men into their opposing side’s midfield, creating quick gainline ball. De Villiers is the catalyst for the Springboks’ back line both in attack and defence. He will have to be marshalled with great care, and if any player can do it, the power house that is Roberts, can.

Another key battle will be between John Smit and Gethin Jenkins. They are two world class players who’ve proved themselves at the highest level. The scrum is the bread and butter of every rugby game. It will not only provide a solid platform from which the Lions can launch Jamie Heaslip into Ruan Pienaar, but it will also allow an extremely exciting and talented backline the chance to show how devastating they can be.

My one to watch for the first test is Francois Steyn. Any loose kicks out of defence and you know what’s coming. Steyn can fire drop goals from nearly anywhere around the park. He may take five attempts to nail one, or score with his first. Whichever he does, the crowd and players will feed off it.

On the betting front, I would recommend backing the Lions at [3.55].