The two best clay court players in the world battle it out for the 2009 Rome Master Series title this afternoon. Novak Djokovic is the reigning champion and Rafael Nadal is a three time winner in Rome and the greatest player to have ever graced the clay surface. Ben Caudell can’t wait but where is he putting his money?

World number one Rafael Nadal attempts to record a fourth title in Rome as he takes on the defending champion Novak Djokovic in today’s final that kicks off at 15:00 UK time.

Nadal was yesterdays tip to defeat Fernando Gonzalez 2-0 @ [1.26] and by more than 5.5 games @ [1.9]. The Spaniard didn’t disappoint as he recorded a 6-3 6-3 win over the Chilean.

The other semi-final of the day was an intense affair between number two seed Roger Federer and number three seed Novak Djokovic. Djokovic will have the opportunity to defend his Rome Masters crown after recovering from a set and a break down to defeat Federer 4-6 6-3 6-3. Their head-to-head now stands at 7-4 in Federer’s favour.

Today’s Selection

Rafael Nadal (SPA) v Novak Djokovic (SRB)
This is the final that we all predicted, the two best clay court players in the world will battle it out for the 2009 Rome Master Series title, Djokovic the reigning champion vs. Rafael Nadal a three time winner and simply the greatest player to have ever graced the clay surface.

Rafael leads their head-to-heads 12-4 , winning the last three times they have played, two of which were played on clay. Novak Djokovic managed to get a set off the Spanish Bull during their last outing a few weeks ago at the Monte Carlo Masters. Nadal not surprisingly went on to win the tournament, his dominance on the surface is non-comprehendible. Coming into this match the Spaniard has won 29 straight matches on clay (15 in a row this year, 34-1 in sets)

Novak Djokovic will be confident and bullish in the knowledge that he has already managed to win a set off Nadal on clay. He will also be in positive spirits having defeated Roger Federer in the previous round. Nadal will no doubt win this match, the question is will the Serb be able to take another set off him?

The Rome Master Series has reached the semi final stage with the top three seeds still to drop a set. Not since 1981 have the top three in the world advanced to this stage in Rome. But who does Ben Caudell believe will prevail today?

The first of today’s semi-finals sees Roger Federer take on Novak Djokovic.

Federer has won seven of the last 10 encounters against the Serb however Djokovic won their last match-up with a three set victory in Miami over a month ago.

My predictions yesterday were spot on as Fernando Gonzalez rallied for the second match in a row against qualifier Juan Monaco to win 2-6 6-3 6-4. We managed to back the Chilean at [1.4] to win the match and at [4.0] to win 2-1.

He now faces an almost impossible task against the clay court king Rafael Nadal to reach his first ever Rome final.

Nadal will be gunning for his fourth title in Rome where he and Thomas Muster are the only players to have won three titles in the open era…

Today’s Selections

Rafael Nadal (SPA) v Fernando Gonzalez (CHI)
Rafael leads the series 5-3 in their head-to-heads, not since January 2007 has the Chilean defeated the Spanish Bull, a straight sets quarter-final win at the Australian Open. This match being on clay will represent a more challenging experience for Gonzalez. We are all aware of Nadal’s exploits on the red stuff and with the Spaniard’s own admission that he didn’t play well against fellow compatriot Fernando Verdasco in the previous round, there will be a lot more in the tank for Rafa who is still to drop a set. The outcome of this match is simple to predict – Nadal will win – but the question is by how many games!

It’s a South American battle to make the semis and Ben Caudell fancies the favourite.

The quarter-finals of the Rome Masters kicks off today featuring five of the six top seeds, led by three time champion Rafael Nadal, two time finalist Roger Federer, and last year’s winner Novak Djokovic.

For the first time ever, two qualifiers, Juan Monaco, and Mischa Zverev, have reached the quarter finals. Zverev will meet the resurgent Federer who avenged his 2008 quarter final loss to Radek Stepanek by demolishing the Czech in two straights sets 6-4 6-1.

Nadal and Djokovic lost only three games between them in their defeats of Robin Soderling and Tommy Robredo. Both players showed exactly why they are regarded as clay court maestros and favourites to reach this year’s final. Nadal has won 27 straight matches on clay going back to May 7, 2008 when he lost to countryman Juan Carlos Ferrero in the second round (after a bye) in Rome. During the winning streak, he’s won 65 of 69 sets. Since 2005, Nadal has compiled an outstanding 144-4 match record on clay a phenomenal feat in its own right and a record that we will never see the likes of again…

Today’s Selections:

Juan Monaco (ARG) v Fernando Gonzalez (CHI)
This South American battle commences at 19:30 (UK time) and is my match of the day. Both players will significantly improve their world ranking if they are to reach the semis at this year’s Rome Masters. Gonzalez will be hoping to improve on his 2009 clay court record 10-1 and reach his third semi final of the year, having reached the same round in Barcelona last week, and Vina Del Mar, which he won earlier this year. The Chilean definitely feels at home in Rome, he has a 15-5 record at this event, his last two losses have come against eventual champion Rafael Nadal in the 2006, 2007 quarter-finals, and he withdrew from his match against Nicolas Almagro in 2008 due to injury.

Monaco is appearing in his first Master Series quarter-final, his previous best result was a third round defeat two weeks ago in Monte Carlo. Qualifying into the main draw at this year’s event has meant that today’s match will be his sixth match in a row. Defeating Nicolas Kiefer, Andy Murray, and Marin Cilic has given the Argentinean clay court specialist the confidence to go further, however with a 0-5 head-to-head losing record against Gonzalez, four of which were on clay, reaching the semi finals in Rome could be a step too far.

I predict that the power Gonzalez possesses on his forehand side will be too much for the Argentinean to handle. Gonzalez likes to run around his backhand and dominate proceedings from that side. Monaco doesn’t have a big shot in his armoury but what he does do, is get everything that is thrown at him back. His movement around the court is exceptional and is probably the fitter of the two. This match has the potential to go to three sets and I think it will be Fernando Gonzalez who will be the eventual winner in what could be the match of the tournament.

‘The Worm’ can exploit Federer’s weaknesses on clay, says Ben Caudell.

We were treated to a full day’s play yesterday at the Rome Masterswith number four seed Andy Murray bowing out due to a second round defeat to Juan Monaco of Argentina. It was Murray’s first opening-round loss since August 2008 at the Beijing Olympics where he lost to Yen-sun Lu. Having reached the semi-finals of Barcelona a week ago Murray’s intentions were apparent early on as he stormed through the first set losing only one game.

Monaco admitted to pre-match nerves and managed to keep calm at the start of the second set breaking Murray twice to even the match at one set all. Monaco, led 4-2 in the deciding set before Murray fought back to 5-4, but clinched the decisive service break in the 11th game. It was his 15th win of the season and avenged his loss to Murray at the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Miami last month. We were successful in backing Juan Monaco @ [4.4] and laying Murray 2-0 @ [1.3], my Tuesday tips.

There happened to be a few upsets yesterday with Nikolay Davydenko, David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga joining Murray in the departure lounge. Eleven of the sixteen seeds remain, with the top three players in the world, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and Novak Djokovic show casing today’s play.

Today’s Selections:

Roger Federer (SWI) v Radek Stepanek (CZE)
Federer has a 8-2 head-to-head record over the occasionally irritating Radek Stepanek. One of the two wins the Czech has over Federer came this time last year in Rome, a 7-6 7-6 epic which saw Stepanek’s famous worm dance take centre stage after his biggest ever win.

The last seven matches between the pair have seen no less than ten tie break sets being played, highlighting the fact that this match could be a close fought battle. Federer played awfully yesterday against the big serving Croat, Ivo Karlovic. The Swiss player lacks confidence in his serve and forehand and I can see Stepanek exploiting the his weaknesses on the clay. I can see this being a tight three set match that could go either way, therefore I will be backing Stepanek +4.5 Games and over’s on the total games market.

Selections: Back Stepanek +4.5 Handicap @ [1.8]; Back over 21.5 Games @ [2.0]

Yes, sure, we know he’s the best. But here are five reasons to lay Nadal at [1.38] to win the Rome Masters.

Rafael Nadal’s status as the new dominant force in tennis is highlighted by the fact he starts as the [1.38] favourite in a tournament where he suffered arguably the most disappointing defeat of his clay court career last year. With a record of 33 wins in 36 matches in 2009, it would take a brave man to write the world number one off but the Contrarian, who correctly predicted the end of Roger Federer’s five-year Wimbledon monopoly last summer, is confident that the odds will be defied again. Here’s why he expects the Spaniard to come unstuck in Rome…

Nadal flopped last year
Last year Nadal arrived in the Italian capital as the clear favourite having triumphed in each of the previous three Rome Masters. However, his participation in the tournament lasted just 114 minutes after he was dumped out in straight sets by compatriot Juan Carlos Ferrero in the second round, having received a bye through the first. Unlike his previous loss on clay a year earlier to Federer in Hamburg, where he was narrowly beaten by his closest rival in the final of the tournament, he wasnt facing someone at the top of their game. Indeed, Ferrero went on to lose in straight sets in the next round against Switzerland’s Stanislas Wawrinka.

Its a tough title to regain
Novak Djokovic was the benefactor from Nadal’s early exit last year and worryingly for the Spaniard, just one player in the last 20 years has regained the Rome Masters crown after letting it slip from their grasp: Thomas Muster, the winner in 1990, 1995 and 1996. The struggle to regain supremacy has affected some of the world’s best players. Pete Sampras, the 1994 winner, went out in the first round the following year and failed to get past the third round in five attempts after that. 1999 champion Gustavo Kuerten was then the runner-up in each of the following two years. He too never managed to regain the title, winning just one of his four matches there after making three consecutive finals.

…and nobody has won it four times
Nadal is already the joint-most successful player in Rome Masters history, with Muster and Marty Mulligan tying with him on three triumphs. While there aren’t many records around about Mulligan’s period of success in the 1960s, Muster’s third victory saw him reach something of an unbreakable ceiling, as he never managed to make it past the third round again from that point onwards.

The number one seed is cursed
The top seed hasn’t been victorious at the Rome Masters since Muster’s third and final triumph in 1996. In theory, being named the first seed should confirm a player’s status as favourite and keep them away from their biggest rivals until the latter stages but for some reason it has proved a huge disadvantage in Italy. Just three of the last 12 men who have started the tournament with number one in brackets next to their name have reached the quarter-finals. In that time, five have crashed out in the third round, with two bidding farewell in the second round and a further two not even making it past the first.

The draw hasn’t been too kind to Nadal
The world number ones bid to retain his crown starts against Andreas Seppi, who won his last encounter with Nadal in Rotterdam last year. The Spaniard has also been drawn in the same half for the tournament as Andy Murray, who has reached the final at four of the last six Masters events, winning three.

Struggling Simon could fall to Fognini in wet ‘n windy Rome.

Another rain drenched day at the Rome Masters forced play into the early hours of the morning. It wasn’t until 2am local time that the last match between Fernando Gonzalez and Jeremy Chardy was finally completed, Gonzalez winning in straight sets 6-4 6-1. It is possible that today will also be another wet and windy day full of disruptions to the order of play.

According to the weather forecast Saturday will be the only day of the week that we see bright skies and a full day’s play…

Three of the four big guns will start their Rome campaign today, ATP World Tour No.1 and three time champion Rafael Nadal, No.2 Roger Federer and No.4 Andy Murray highlight Wednesday afternoon’s matches on the stadium court.

Murray was supposed to play yesterday, however due to the adverse weather conditions his match against Juan Monaco was re-scheduled for 13:00 local time today. Yesterday’s tips to back Juan Monaco @ [4.4] and lay Murray 2-0 still stand, please refer to Tuesday’s tips for further information regarding this match.

Today’s Selection

Gilles Simon (FRA) v Fabio Fognini (ITA)
Simon has had a torrid time since reaching the semi-final of Dubai nearly two months ago. He has since lost to Ivan Ljubicic, Tomas Berdych, Radek Stepanek, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, and his first clay court match of the year last week in Monte Carlo to Andreas Beck. There are obvious confidence issues with the Frenchman at the moment and with the French Open fast approaching he needs to find something in his armoury to get out of the mire.

Fabio Fognini has a great record in his home country, winning eight of his last ten matches. In previous years at the Rome Masters he has defeated the likes of Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro. Clay is without doubt the Italian’s favoured surface; he has a 31-13 record on the red stuff within the last 12 months including recent wins over Nicolas Massu, Tomas Berdych, and Marin Cilic.

The value is definitely with Fabio Fognini, it does however depend on whether he has recovered from his late night slogging match with Filippo Volandri. He will no doubt have the support of the home crowed and with Simons current demise, I have to be backing the Italian.

Selection: Lay Gilles Simon 2-0 @ [2.24]
Back Fognini @ [3.1] to win match

Let’s hope for better weather on day two as Ben Caudell spies some tasty odds and Andy Murray makes his entrance to the Rome Masters event…

Windy conditions followed by sudden downpours disrupted the opening day’s play at the Rome Masters which meant that not all of the scheduled matches were completed.

Yesterday’s tip on Andreas Seppi to defeat Sam Querrey will be one of the matches rescheduled for Tuesday (13:15 UK time). Also playing tomorrow will be the defending champion Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, who is yet to go beyond the third round in Rome. Murray is still gunning for that elusive number three spot in the world rankings and believes that if Novak Djokovic doesn’t win this year’s event he will finally succeed in ousting the Serbian.

From the matches that were completed, the biggest upset was James Blake’s defeat to little known Victor Crivoi from Romania. Blake refused to blame the windy conditions and vowed to make some adjustments in his game before the start of the French Open. Qualifier Crivoi will now meet either Robin Soderling or Marcel Granollers in the second round.

Today’s Selections:

Mischa Zverev (GER) v Tomas Berdych (CZE)

Tomas Berdych has a 1-0 head-to-head record over the German Mischa Zverev, the match was played on a hard court and Berdych won in straight sets 6-1 6-4 two years ago. Berdych, who at times has shown glimpses of a scintillating all-round game to match any player in the top 20, has a knack of not fulfilling his true capabilities especially against lesser ranked players. To be fair to the 24-year-old-Czech, 2009 hasn’t been all that bad, the majority of his losses have been against top ten world ranked players, including a five set thriller against Roger Federer at the Australian Open and most recently a close three set loss to Fernando Verdasco.

Mischa Zverev on the other hand is a left hander whose main weapon is the serve. The serve is less important on clay than on other surfaces and without all-round court ability the German will struggle against a better more experienced player in Berdych. Zverev’s game suits a faster court surface and having never been past the first round at Master Series level, I expect this to be a comfortable straight sets win for Berdych at rather tasty odds.

Selection: Back Tomas Berdych @ [1.4] to win match
Back Berdych 2 -0 @ [2.0]

Andy Murray (GBR) v Juan Monaco (ARG)

Andy Murray may have defeated Juan Monaco in three sets last month but today they meet on the Argentine’s favoured clay court surface. Monaco has a slight advantage coming into this match; he has already played three matches so far at this year’s Rome Masters, two rounds of qualifying and a first round win over Nicolas Kiefer. He will therefore be more accustomed to the faster clay court and will exude confidence in the knowledge that Murray has struggled on this surface in the past and has never been past the third round in Rome.

Selection: Lay Andy Murray 2-0 @ [1.3]
Back Juan Monaco @ [4.4] to win match (small bet)

It’s not only Rafael Nadal who loves the red stuff – clay also happens to be Ben Caudell’s favourite surface to trade on. Our man picks his best bets from the opening day in the Italian capital…

The clay court season is in full swing and this week’s event, the BNL D’Italia, the fourth ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournament of the year kicks off today with eight of the world’s top ten players featuring in a star studied draw that includes Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and last years champion Novak Djokovic.

Rafael Nadal will be hoping to cement his dominance on the clay by capturing a fourth title in Rome, having won previously in 2007, 2006, and 2005 and by overtaking Roger Federer in total Master 1000 series titles won (currently 14 each) both players having won more than Pete Sampras (11.0) but less than Andre Agassi (17.0) .

The Spaniard enters this year’s event as the top seed for the first time with four titles this year and a 33-3 match record. Last year Nadal went out in the second round to fellow countryman Juan Carlos Ferrero after winning back-to-back titles in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona. Since this loss Nadal has gone on a 25 match winning streak on the clay and since 2005 he has accomplished a 142-4 record on clay. No wonder he is the overwhelming favourite to capture a 15th ATP World series 1000 title.

Once again, I will be hoping to find some decent value bets on what happens to be my favourite surface to trade on.

Today’s Selections:

Andreas Seppi (ITA) v Sam Querrey (USA)

Home favourite Andreas Seppi will have his work cut out against the American Sam Querrey in this late night match-up. The Italian has a 3-7 record at the Rome Masters losing to another American at last year’s event, James Blake in three tight sets. The Rome clay is slightly faster than your average clay court so will tend to favour the better server. Querrey’s serve will be tough to break down for the Italian and this match potentially could go to three sets with the possibility of a tie-break in one of the sets.

The biggest factor to look at in deciding on a winner in this match is clay court experience. Seppi has played several times this year on the European clay and therefore his movement, groundstrokes, and tactical nous will have already been utilised. Sam Querrey has had little practice on the red stuff with the Rome Masters his first clay court tournament of the year. He has struggled with a hamstring injury recently so won’t be match fit. I believe he will find it hard to settle into this match against Seppi who will have the support of the Italian fans, I just hope the Italian has the confidence to see this match through to the end.

After a profitable week for Sean Calvert in Barcelona, the tour moves to Rome where 63 of the world’s top players will once again be trying to work out how to dent Rafael Nadal’s dominance on the red dirt.

Starting with the positives from Barcelona, I correctly predicted that it would be a Rafa Nadal v David Ferrer final, but sadly the Valencian was unable to find a way to beat the world number one this time.

It didnt help Ferrer’s cause that Nadal was handed a bye with the withdrawal of David Nalbandian in the quarter-finals. The last thing you need if you’re Ferrer is taking on a nicely rested Nadal when youve been slugging out tight three setters all week.

At least it was a profitable event though as Ferrer was matched as high as [60.0] and as low as [9.6], so there were ample opportunities to make money following the back-to-lay advice.

Nadal was once again at his brilliant best against Ferrer and we now move on to Rome where 63 of the world’s top players will once more try and solve the conundrum of how to put a dent in Nadal’s dominance on the red dirt.

The Pearl de Manacor for once is not defending the title in Rome, where he lost out to Juan Carlos Ferrero in his opening match in 2008, but that defeat is Nadal’s only loss at the Rome Masters from 18 matches and I seem to recall that he was hampered by injury in the all-Spanish encounter.

Nadal won this in 2005, ‘06 and ‘07 and will start at around [1.4] to claim his fourth Rome Masters title, but the defending champion is Novak Djokovic, who took advantage of Nadal’s early loss to beat Stan Wawrinka in the final and is a [15.0] shot to repeat that victory.

There seems little point in investing in that because should Nadal make the final, Djokovic won’t be a great deal shorter to beat the Spaniard anyway, although the Serbian is starting to look useful again after a period in the doldrums.

Sadly, the same cannot be said of Roger Federer, who clearly has other things on his mind at the moment and the Swiss has a poor record in Rome in any case.

The fact that Federer is fourth favourite with some layers behind Nadal, Djokovic and Andy Murray tells its own story and [13.0] represents poor value for a player who has been beaten by Radek Stepanek and Filippo Volandri in his last two Rome outings.

The only saving grace for Federer is that he has been handed a plum draw with Gilles Simon [160.00] the highest ranked player in his quarter, although Ferrer [65.0] is in that section as well. After the embarrassment of Monte Carlo, it’s hard to see even a great champion such as Federer winning here at his worst when he was unable to do so at his peak.

Nadal himself has been given a charitable draw with that renowned clay-courter James Blake [1000.00] as the seed in his section and Nadal will probably find Marcel Granollers [1000.00] his last 16 opponent.

Things might get tougher for Nadal in the last eight where he will probably play Fernando Verdasco [60.0] but since the Madrid man has for some inexplicable reason reverted back to dollying his serve in rather than hitting it with the menace he showed in Melbourne it’s hard to see Verdasco prevailing.

The adjacent section of the draw to Nadal’s looks an interesting one with Andy Murray [18.5] the man seeded to meet the world number one in the semi-finals. The Scot has a dreadful record in Rome, never having won a completed match here in three starts, but he is clearly making strides on the red dirt and he is the only player that actually believes he can beat Nadal – regardless of the playing surface.

Murray should certainly improve his Rome statistics this time as he has only Juan Ignacio Chela to concern him early on, but a quarter-final against probably Fernando Gonzalez [80.0] or Nikolay Davydenko [110.00] will provide a stern test of his title credentials.

Gonzalez had something of a resurgence in Barcelona and showed his best form for a while, which is great to see. The Chilean has been lightly worked by new coach Martin Rodriguez so far this season, which has kept him fresh and he showed enough last week to convince me that he is the best of the outsiders.

His serve looked potent last week and that grandstand forehand is back after a Stefanki-inspired period of over reliance on the backhand slice. Gonzo reached the final here in 2007 and has only been beaten by Nadal in his Rome appearances since 2005, losing out to the world number one in 07 and in the quarters in 06.

The final section of the draw is of course that of Djokovic and the defending champ looks to have few serious rivals for a semi-final spot. The seed in his section is Juan Martin Del Potro [60.0], who is not much of a threat on the red stuff and once again Wawrinka [110.00] may prove to be the toughest test for the Serbian to negotiate.

Nadal will be desperate to regain his Rome title and assuming that he’s ok physically this time, that [1.4] should be looking mighty big come finals day.

Murray is next best for me at [18.5] and could be worth a small saver, while anywhere around [100.00] on Gonzalez is worth a bet and should provide an entertaining and hopefully profitable tournament at the Rome Masters.

Simon Mundie is distinctly unimpressed by the top players in the women’s game.

It’s fair to say that men’s tennis is in the middle of a golden era at the moment, with not one but two all time great players topping the world rankings, contesting classic Grand Slam finals with enjoyable regularity. Just behind Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are a further two personalities who have every chance to establish themselves as all time greats, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, followed by several others who should push them hard over the next few years including the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Juan Martin Del Potro, as well as old crowd favourites like Andy Roddick.

The same can’t be said for the women’s game unfortunately, which is in a lull the likes of which hasn’t been seen for many years. Indeed, women’s tennis far outshone the men’s game in the early 2000s, when the top spots were occupied by the likes of Justine Henin, Lindsay Davenport, Jennifer Capriati, Kim Clijsters and the Williams sisters. Those players had different strengths and personalities, and contested several great matches in the big events.

Contrast that with the situation as it is now, and it’s clear that the current crop of players at the top of the game are simply not in the same league. They do not have the same strength of personality, their play lacks variety and it is difficult to see which of them, with the obvious exception of the Williams sisters, are genuine winners of the top order.

Of the current top five, only Serena and Venus have won any Grand Slam titles, and the whole situation is summed up by the fact that the world’s number one ranked player, Dinara Safina, is still better known for being the younger sister of Marat Safin than for her on court exploits. Could you possibly imagine the same ever being said for the likes of Navratilova, Graf, Seles or even Hingis?

Safina was recently asked about the situation and replied thus: “I’m still his younger sister. It doesn’t matter. When I walk around I still hear the crowds, saying: ‘Oh, this is the sister of Marat.’ I think I’m going to be his little sister for ever.” If she were to actually win a slam, and prove she was a worthy number one, she might be surprised that fans recognise her on her own merits.

While Safina is number one on the rankings computer, you would be hard pressed to find anyone who genuinely believes she is the best tennis player in the women’s game. That accolade goes to Serena, with Venus holding an advantage on grass having dominated Wimbledon in recent years. It was Serena though who destroyed Safina in this year’s Australian Open final 6-3 6-0 in under an hour: the worrying thing about that result was that it wasn’t really a huge surprise, and even the crowd seemed resigned to a damp squib of a match as early as the third game, considering their murmurings of discontent.

To be fair to Safina, she is relatively new to the upper echelons of the game, so could yet prove her detractors wrong. But what of the other ‘top’ players?

Jelena Jankovic has been ranked number one in the world, despite having regularly disappointed at the big events. She lacks a killer shot and even when at the top of the game, she would have to hope one of the Williams sisters is having an off day to really stand a chance. Jankovic did run Serena relatively close in last year’s US Open final, but Serena was inhibited by what had been a lean few years up until that point, as she dedicated much of her time to other distractions . The fact that she could turn her attentions away from the game as she and Venus did, and still return to the pinnacle of the game without too much bother speaks volumes.

Ana Ivanovic is another case in point. She made her Grand Slam breakthrough at the French Open last year, and looked set to dominate. Since then she has suffered a quite alarming collapse in form and confidence, with rumors of on-court panic attacks amongst other things. She entered Wimbledon last year as top seed, but was trounced in the third round by Jheng Zie, looking miles from the best the game had to offer.

The two Serbs though are far from alone as, besides the Williams, there are no outstanding players in the top 20. Part of that stems from the lack of variety in style of player: no one seems capable of anything other than grinding from the baseline. No great players from the past have been so one dimensional as the current crop, nor so mentally fragile.

So is there any hope for the immediate future of the women’s game outside of the women’s game? A swift and full return from injury for Maria Sharapova would be a welcome boost, as she is a born winner who can live with the Williams sisters. Clijsters’ supposed return to the professional set-up could prove interesting, and you have to keep your fingers crossed that Henin, who proved that variety and intelligence is more than a match for brute baseline force, has a similar change of heart.

What does all this mean to the bettor? Well, it does at least mean this year’s French Open is wide open. Serena rightly starts as favourite at [5.8] despite clay being far and away her worst surface, followed by Jankovic at [7.4]. You can get last year’s winner Ivanovic at [8.8] while next in the betting is ‘world number one’ Safina at [9.8].

One to watch out for in terms of value however is Elena Dementieva ([11.5]). Another serial underachiever, she is one of the best baseline grinders, and if she keeps her serving yips under control, could finally grab a big one. And let’s be honest, with the exception of the Williams sisters, the competition isn’t exactly fierce.

Sean Calvert is looking to invest his winnings from successfully backing Nadal last week to get behind David Ferrer, whose record here is good and who could make it all the way to the final before losing to…Rafael Nadal.

I’m certainly not going to win any prizes for originality for successfully predicting Rafa Nadal’s win in Monte Carlo, but the 40 percent return on my cash came in very handy.

Sadly there’s no chance of a repeat of those odds this week in Barcelona, as The Pearl de Manacor’s latest clay court title victory has got the layers scuttling for cover.

The best price you can currently get on Nadal to collect his fifth successive Barcelona title is around [1.28] and so for a second week in a row the equation is a simple one – can anyone stop him?

The answer to that is highly unlikely, but there are a few factors in Barcelona that weren’t around in Monte Carlo.

Firstly, Nadal will be tired (or as tired as Nadal ever gets) after a surprisingly tough semi final and final last week and therefore the likelihood of a retirement increases albeit only marginally.

Secondly, thanks to an embarrassingly lopsided draw, the world number one has been paired with David Nalbandian (2-1 lifetime to Nalbandian) and a few others that could give him a game on their best form.

Nikolay Davydenko and Stan Wawrinka both showed glimpses of their best on clay last week and both are in Nadal’s half, as is recent Casablanca winner Juan Carlos Ferrero and fellow red dirt specialist Nicolas Almagro.

It might be stretching a point to include Richard Gasquet in that list of potential hurdles, but the mercurial Frenchman is seeded to face Nadal in the third round.

At the absolute minimum this should ensure that Nadal doesn’t have the easy opening to Barcelona as he enjoyed in Monte Carlo when he was faced with the might of Juan Ignacio Chela, Nicolas Lapentti and Ivan Ljubicic first up.

All of which presents a decent back-to-lay option in the bottom half of the draw and there are several suitors for the opportunity of getting to an ATP Tour World Tour 500 clay event without having to overcome Nadal in the process.

The first of these is the number two seed Fernando Verdasco at around [14.0], but as I mentioned last week Verdasco is flattering to deceive at the moment and he has never bettered the last 16 in Barcelona.

The man from Madrid does appear to have a fairly straightforward run to the quarter finals though with only the likes of Tomas Berdych ([150.0]) and Paul Henri Mathieu ([100.0]) standing in the way of a potential last eight clash with Fernando Gonzalez ([65.0]).

I would envisage Verdasco thrashing a few before surrendering meekly around the quarter or semi final stage, possibly to Gonzalez, who himself isn’t without a chance at around [65.0], but the value for my money lies in the adjacent section of the draw.

This final quarter has home favourites Tommy Robredo ([75.0]) and David Ferrer as the seeds and the latter clearly has a fine chance of reaching the Barcelona final for the second consecutive year.

The diminutive Valencian is not one to place a huge amount of trust in as his heavy defeat to Verdasco last week showed, but at around [28.0] he represents the best value to make the championship match.

After suffering an alarming slump towards the latter half of 2008 that saw Ferrer slip from number four in the world to number 12, he looks to have regained his form somewhat and a return to home soil where only Nadal has beaten him in the past two years should bring out the best in Ferrer in conditions that clearly suit his scurrying game.

He could not have wished for a kinder draw with only compatriot Robredo to trouble him and Ferrer has generally come out on top whenever the pair have met, as was the case in this event last year when Ferrer was victorious in straight sets.

Igor Andreev ([110.0]) and Robin Soderling ([150.0]) are the other seeds in that particular section and their respective records here are poor.

Andreev has never won a match here in three attempts, while Soderling has lost in the opening round in his last four ATP Tour level events and last won a match at the top level at the Australian Open, so it’s fair to say that he’s struggling right now.

To sum up, I would imagine that Nadal will emerge victorious once again unless probably the finest clay court player in history has a physical breakdown, but I won’t be backing him at [1.28], so take Ferrer to at small stakes on a back-to lay basis in Barcelona.

Ralph Ellis takes a trip down memory lane to recall interviewing Ivan Lendl and being told he was desperate to win Wimbledon. Fast forward twenty years and Federer’s interviews in which he talks about winning the French Open has echoes of Lendl’s tune.

I first covered Wimbledon in 1987 when Ivan Lendl was the figure who dominated world tennis. Number one for a what was then a record 270 weeks, the tall, slim Czech with a steely eyed commitment to winning was the man who began every tournament as favourite to take the trophy.

That year he had just collected the French Open, and was a racing certainty to add the grass court title to his collection until he ran into the booming serve of 17-year-old Boris Becker in the final. It hurt like hell, and it hurt for two further years as his quest at SW19 ended in the semis.

By the time 1990 came round, Lendl, then aged 30 had won two Australian Opens as well as three US titles and two at Roland Garros and all he wanted was Wimbledon before he retired. He didn’t even compete in France that year and I can remember interviewing him at a tiny tournament somewhere in Kent where he’d gone to play on grass instead. All he talked about was his quest to be a Wimbledon winner.

It didn’t happen – Stefan Edberg wiped him away in straight sets in the semis and after that he never won another Grand Slam.

Apologies for the trip down memory lane, but I was reminded of it all as I read Roger Federer’s interview before he began this year’s clay court campaign at the Monte Carlo Masters. The Swiss giant is to Roland Garros what Lendl was to Wimbledon, the master determined to add the one missing piece of silverware before it’s too late. And win or lose in today’s opening match in the Principality, it’s clear that’s all he cares about.

“I have been the second best clay-court player for a long time and I hope to be able to win the big one, the French Open, at the end of the road,” he said. “It’s on this objective that I am concentrating. Here it’s more a question of getting the rhythm, of winning a few matches and of playing well. I do like the exchanges on clay. I feel fresh and am now ready to attack. A fresh mind is key to my game.”

Oh dear, substitute grass for clay and it’s almost exactly what Lendl was telling me in a tent in Beckenham while the rain was pouring down outside all those years ago. And it is just as certain to end in disappointment (just as it always did for Pete Sampras, incidentally, who also failed to add the French to all his other titles). Federer is [10.5] second favourite to triumph in Paris this year but it might as well be [100.0]. When the going gets tough the memory of how easily he was wiped away by Rafael Nadal in last year’s final will surely come back to haunt him. And don’t be surprised if he goes out early in any of the tournaments between then and now. When you are trying too hard for something it often brings mistakes.

Five things you might not know about Ivan Lendl

1.Born in Ostrava, his Mum Olga was at one time ranked number two in Czechoslovakia

2.He moved to the States after turning professional, but a bill to allow him to become a US Citizen in time for the 1988 Olympics failed to get through Congress. He eventually became an American in 1992.

3.He is credited with being the first tennis player to embrace modern fitness and training ideas

4.A scratch golfer, after retiring from tennis he tried to turn pro in that sport but never got further than a win on the Celebrity tour.

5.Three of his five daughters, Marika (18), Isabella (17) and Daniela (15), play golf at US Junior Girls level and he now devotes much of his time to managing their progress

Without a win in 2009 and a victory over Rafael Nadal on any surface since 2007, Roger Federer is at the lowest point of his career for many a year. Simon Mundie looks at the causes of the problem and possible solutions.

Off the court, 2009 has already been a wonderful year for Roger Federer: he has married his long-term girlfriend Mirka Vavrinec, and the couple are expecting their first child later this year. On the court, things aren’t so rosy for the man some consider to be the greatest of all time.

Federer hasn’t won a title since scooping his 13th Grand Slam title in New York last year. He won the US Open with a resounding win over Andy Murray to rescue what had been, by his meteoric standards, a lean year up until that point. He began this year by losing the final in Doha to Murray, before displaying some superb performances on the way to the final of the Australian Open, not least his quarter-final destruction of Juan Martin Del Potro.

That night everything he tried came off, and he lit up the court as only he can. In the final, it was the same old story though, as his mental frailties were exposed by the man who has overtaken him at the summit of the men’s game, Rafael Nadal. The depth of his despair was clear for all to see as he broke down in tears during the presentation ceremony, providing his detractors with the ammunition to claim that his game was in terminal decline, and his spirit broken.

Since then, he has played only two further tournaments, losing once more to Andy Murray and also to the other member of the ‘Big Four’: Novak Djokovic. During the latest loss to the Serb in Miami his behaviour was hugely out of character, smashing a racket on the ground having missed yet another routine forehand. It was the sort of behaviour he appeared to have eradicated from his game since his time as a petulant teenager.

It appears then, that Federer is at his lowest ebb for many years. He is without a win against Nadal anywhere since 2007, and it’s clear that Murray has his number too for now. It is highly possible that he will have dropped down to number three before the end of the summer, and several players will fancy their chances of adding his prized scalp to their CV. So what can he do to regain some of his former aura, starting this week with his first 2009 outing on the clay-courts of Monte Carlo?

Federer’s greatest weapon during his all conquering seasons was his forehand- possibly the greatest the game has ever seen. In full flow it was the perfect stroke: incredibly powerful, consistent and full of variety. In recent times, it has proved something of a liability, particularly when he has needed to rely on it most. It doesn’t appear to have the fluency it once did, and he doesn’t enjoy the same level of belief in it as was previously a given. Part of that is down to how his backhand has been exposed, first by Nadal, and now by other players who have seen how the Spaniard has managed to break that wing down during their titanic encounters. Federer feels he has to do more with his forehand when he gets the opportunity, and as a result he often over presses with it, resulting in error. To re-establish his forehand as the best in the game, he first needs to decide the best way to use his backhand.

Federer’s backhand slice is an excellent shot, but he has been reluctant to use it, particularly against Nadal. That could well be a mistake as if he used his slice to manoeuvre the likes of the Spaniard short and wide, as well as deep, he would free himself from the shackles of feeling the need to hit screaming winners with his forehand at every opportunity.
Another area of his game that has slipped is his serve, which is markedly less powerful and accurate. You have to assume that it is a technical issue, one that probably needs the attention of a coach- someone who can take an objective look at the stroke and make minor adjustments where needed. Federer though, like many great champions before him, is a stubborn man who will always think he knows best. He is still without a coach, as he has been for much of the last few years, and shows no sign of looking to hire one. Until he dispels with that obstinate approach, he may well be fighting a losing battle to reach his previous heights.

If he were to hire someone full-time who could help fine tune his strokes and give him some tactical suggestions, he wouldn’t have to simply rely on playing the brand of perfect tennis of which he is eminently capable, but which is becoming increasingly rare. It would also allow someone else to carry the burden of his losses, which could take some of the pressure off his shoulders and allow him to play in the carefree manner that was previously the hallmark of his game. The question is, if Federer ever decides a coach is the way forward, who would be the best man for the job? You feel Brad Gilbert would be too much for the laid-back Swiss on a personal level; Larry Stefanki is already employed; and the ideal candidate, Darren Cahill, says he is unwilling to travel the tour for the whole year. If he could be made to change his mind, it could be the tonic Federer needs to finally surpass Sampras as the most prolific champion of all time.

For all the whispers about his decline though, it is worth remembering that he is still very much a contender in every event he plays, and this could still turn this into another superb year. Besides Nadal, Murray and, to a lesser extent, Novak Djokovic; he still expects to beat everyone else he plays, including the likes of Gilles Simon who he has lost to in their last two meetings.

So are there any banana skins awaiting Federer ([10.0] to win this week) during this week’s Monte Carlo event that could prevent another final match up with Rafael Nadal. He should certainly get past Andreas Seppi in his first match, and then the likes of Stanislas Wawrinka and Juan Monaco to make it to the semi-finals, where he will probably face Djokovic ([23.0]) once more.

If he can beat the Serb, who first has to get past the likes of Fernando Verdasco ([50.0]) and David Ferrer ([60.0]) to book his spot in the last four, it would be a huge confidence boost. Then it would be another final against Nadal ([1.4]), where he would be expected to lose. With the pressure off his shoulders, he could relax and play the type of uninhibited tennis that can make him unplayable. Alternatively, he could suffer another morale-sapping defeat the likes of which we witnessed during last year’s Roland Garros final, further decreasing his aura and quickening his demise.

However, it could also ultimately be just what he needs, if it makes him realise that he would be well served with a coach by his side to give him a fresh perspective as he seeks to re-establish himself as the world number one, and the game’s greatest ever player. Then his life on court would be almost as perfect as it appears to be off-court.

Sean Calvert admits that backing a [1.4] shot is rarely exciting but at a time when interest rates on savings accounts are laughable, the chance to back Nadal to win at the Monte Carlo Masters may seem like a very safe and clever move.

You know things are looking bleak for Roger Federer when he starts coming out with statements like: ‘thankfully the hard court season is over and I’m looking forward to the clay court swing’.

Those who thought that Fed’s best chance of beating Rafa Nadal lay on the quicker surfaces are clearly wrong – the Swiss has a plan.

To lull Nadal into a false sense of security by losing to him on all Federer’s favourite surfaces and then he’ll shock the Spaniard by hammering him on clay where he least expects it. Genius!

The world number two couldn’t have picked a better tournament than this week’s Masters event in Monte Carlo in which to hatch his cunning plan, as he has been beaten by Nadal in the last three finals here, where the Spaniard has a 24-1 record.

And what makes it even more of a brilliant double bluff is the fact that Fed has never won here in eight attempts and lost to the likes of Vinny Spadea, Jiri Novak and Richard Gasquet in the past.

Nadal’s only blemish is a 2003 defeat to Guillermo Coria and he is a [1.41] shot to make it five Monte Carlo titles in a row.

So, can anyone beat Nadal or is it worth ditching the zero percent savings account and lumping on the world number one for a nice 40 percent return on your investment?

The answer to that would have to be a resounding yes and I would advise anyone with any spare cash to do just that, but it’s not much fun is it?

So, where are the dangers going to come from? Well, ironically, Nadal has some decent hard court players in his section, including Juan Martin Del Potro ([60.0)] who beat him in Miami.

I’ve personally never seen the lanky Argentine ply his trade on a clay court, but I can’t imagine it to be pleasant viewing and Nadal should dispatch him with ease on the red dirt.

He also has Marat Safin ([1000]), who loves Monte Carlo (but for all the wrong reasons as far as a sports professional is concerned), in his section as well as last week’s surprise Houston clay winner Lleyton Hewitt ([370.0]) and a couple of red dirt veterans in Nicolas Lapentti ([500.0]) and Juan Ignacio Chela ([520]).

The one who may give Nadal the most to do in the early rounds could be Gael Monfils ([100.0]), who has posted some decent results on clay this year, but then again Monfils never knows how he will play when he sets foot on court, so how are we supposed to second guess the Frenchman?

Further down Nadal’s section we find Andy Murray ([16]) once again and the Miami champion has it all to prove on clay, having failed so far to recreate anything like his hard court form on the red dirt.

Most observers believe Murray’s best chance of Grand Slam glory lies on hard courts and they’re probably right, but the Scot loves nothing better than proving doubters wrong and he does have the game to be a decent clay courter given the right advice.

It will be very interesting to see how he gets on, having been thrashed by Novak Djokovic ([20]) last year and been dumped out in the first round on his only other start by Monaco’s finest Jean-Rene Lisnard ([1000]), who always gets a wild card here.

The Scot has been given a kind draw with several low-grade clay courters in his opening section and hard court specialist Marin Cilic ([500]) as the seed before he would have to face possibly David Nalbandian ([40]) or Nikolay Davydenko ([190]) later on.

Of those I have a sneaking feeling that Davydenko might just pull off an upset and repeat his semi final showing of last year (lost to Nadal), purely on the basis that the Russian only goes well when you expect him not to, but it would be a huge shock if Nadal didn’t make it to the final.

Federer’s side of the draw is wide open with the Swiss playing the way he is currently and back-to-lay investors would be wise to include Tommy Robredo ([160.0]), David Ferrer ([60.0]) and Nicolas Almagro ([120.0]) on their short list.

Robredo has been hoovering up clay court events impressively on the South American swing, although he’s never bettered the quarters here, but if he ever has a chance of beating the Swiss it is now.

Ferrer and Almagro are in Djokovic’s quarter and although the Serb made the finals in Miami, he did it more by luck than judgement and his wayward groundstrokes will be found out on clay.

The other seed in that section is Fernando Verdasco ([36.0]), who has never won a match here in four attempts and seems to be slipping back to the ‘old’ Verdasco rather too quickly for my liking, so take Ferrer or Almagro to emerge there.

So, my advice for the Monte Carlo Masters would be to bite the bullet and invest all of your spare cash on Nadal at prohibitive odds and hope he doesn’t get injured, because he surely won’t lose this event for tennis reasons.

Simon Mundie explains the significance of Andy Murray’s win at the Miami Masters as he goes through the “who’s who” of former winners and what they went on to achieve after wining in Florida. And it allows us to dream about Wimbledon glory without being branded lunatics….

Another week, another win for Britain’s greatest male tennis player for over 60 years. But this one was a little bit more special than the rest. It may theoretically be on the same level as the Masters titles the Scot won at the end of 2008 in Cincinatti and Madrid, but Miami holds a unique spot within the tennis calendar. The tournament, previously known as the Lipton International Players Championships, the Ericsson Open and the NASDAQ-100 Open, is often described as as the unofficial ‘fifth Grand Slam’.

The roll call of past winners gives a clear indication of why the tournament is held in such high regard. Since 1988, all but two of the men who have stood holding the Miami trophy aloft have been Grand Slam champions. The only two that have failed to go from Miami winner to major winner since 1988 are Marcelo Rios, whose best result in a slam was to reach the final of the Australian Open in 1998 where he lost to Petr Korda, who was infamously later banned for taking prohibited drugs. The other champion yet to make the transition to major winner is Nikolay Davydenko, who still does have time to add a Slam to his collection, although it’s looking increasingly unlikely.

Part of the reason for it being held in such high esteem by players, fans and pundits alike is its format- it’s one of the only events on either tour to involve more than 64 players and where main draw play extends longer than just the one week, thus recreating conditions akin to those experienced during the cauldron of a Grand Slam fortnight. Furthermore, as the players themselves view it so highly, they’re going all out to win it. That’s not necessarily the case with other tournaments, including other masters events, as witnessed by the spate of withdrawals from several masters events over the last few years, particularly as the season draws to a close.

Looking at the winners list since 1988, it’s also true to say that nearly all the players who have held the trophy aloft have been at one time or other the world’s best player at some point during their career- putting it more or less on a par with the Australian Open. Furthermore, since 1988, most of the Miami Champions won a Grand Slam title during the same season. Roger Federer’s ([2.72] to win a major this year, [1.73] to win none) wins came during his best seasons in 2005 and 2006; Andre Agassi won the title during his superb 1995 campaign, and Pete Sampras’ best years on tour were 1993 and 1994: the years he first won the Miami title. Of those that did win the title but failed to grab a Grand Slam crown, most enjoyed career-best seasons. Marcelo Rios won in 1998- the year he reached number one in the world, while Michael Chang took the title in 1992, again during one of his best years when he was but a hair’s breadth from winning the US Open.

More recently, Andy Roddick ([10.0] to win a major this year) won the title in 2004 having just won the US Open crown a few months previously and being within a whisker of taking the no.1 crown from Federer, and Novak Djokovic ([3.0] to win a major this year) won in 2007, preceding his run to the US Open final that year and the Australian Open win at the start of the following season.

So forget Cincinatti and Madrid, outstanding victories that they were- this tournament victory is the one that shows Andy Murray is truly ready to be a Grand Slam Champion and he’s a [3.35] chance to become one this year. He dismantled Djokovic in the final, looking in total control throughout; he beat the most improved member of the top ten in Juan Martin Del Potro for the third time out of three meetings in the semi-finals; and his recent records against Federer and Nadal, the Indian Wells final played in freakish conditions notwithstanding, suggest he is quite possibly the world’s best player at present.

Murray said before his Indian Wells and Miami campaigns that Miami was the one he was gunning for, and he was true to his word. Reaching the Indian Wells final after being laid low with a virus for a few weeks previously was an incredible achievement in itself, but to then go on and win Miami convincingly shows Murray totally believes in himself, which counts for everything during a major tournament.

So when will this Grand Slam win come? Well you can rule out the French Open, Nadal is simply too good on clay. However, Wimbledon is a distinct possibility- the Scot would fancy his chances against Nadal on grass, and it would appear unless Federer makes some dramatic changes, he will start no higher than third favourite.

Djokovic’s stock has slipped even further, with question marks over his attitude, his physical conditioning and his new racket. Of the newcomers, Tsonga’s game would be best suited to the grass of Wimbledon, and he could literally blow the likes of Murray away with a full-blooded onslaught.

However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Murray starts as second favourite at SW19, and unseats the current world number one to be the first homegrown Champion since Fred Perry in the 1930s. That would be a fairytale, and would confirm him as one of the world’s best two players. Murray is [3.05] to end year as world number 2 and [5.0] to finish as world number 1). He certainly looked every bit that good in winning Miami last week. Murray himself will tell you the US Open is his best shot at glory, but it’s nice to believe in fairytales, and Murray is good enough to provide one on the lawns of SW19.