Time is running out for Newcastle United and with Liverpool refusing to give up on the title, you’d expect another miserable afternoon for Alan Shearer and co. Not so, says Richard Walker. Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ [2.38].

With Steven Gerrard returning to a near-fully fit squad, there’s no way Newcastle can stop Liverpool at Anfield is there? Logically no – but as I’ve been saying of late, need drives action and right now Alan Shearer’s mob are needy.

And while Rafa Benitez is doing a great job of bluffing everyone – Kopites especially – into thinking the league is his number one priority, it’s not. He knows it, we know it. He’s proved that in previous years. And he knows Man United just aren’t going to slip up often enough for Liverpool to seriously fancy their chances.

He must still be reeling at the fact that this is the only competition left open to them so they’re now a side with nothing to keep back in reserve. But does that increase the pressure on them? I say it does.

So, at what looks to me a ludicrously short [1.29] (when you consider United are around 0.4 bigger at Boro), lay Liverpool without the associated risk of putting yourself out of Betfair business. Of course I’m not saying Liverpool can’t win – I’m trying to find the value plays and that’s my opinion. The Draw is [6.2] to back and I’ll be dabbling there too I should think. Newcastle are [13.5] just to prevail in the Match Odds – how the once-mighty have fallen, eh?

Now as you know, I’m not one too influenced by stats, trends of tradition, however I can reasonably assume that all the pointers here are for a high-scoring encounter. That’s because I feel the [2.38] to back about Under 2.5 goals should not be missed. Granted, Shearer’s side are no defensive diamonds, but they’ll be packing the midfield for this one and – even if beaten – I could well envisage it being only 1-0 or 2-0, with Benitez disrupting play by hauling off his big guns to keep the as fresh as possible for his title tilt.

Shearer has openly targeted the home games as the ones he feels will drive United’s survival bid hardest. And while the disappointing Pompey stalemate will be fresh in the mind, I think it’s fair to assume that he’ll see a point at Anfield as a great effort. Expect caution enough to take advantage of those who’re reckoning on an early home goal by laying the 0-10 minutes period in the First Goal odds to a [3.75] liability.

The Draw (HT) at [2.92] should merit consideration, a much richer price than it normally is to back. The more markets I look at, the clearer a picture I have of what Betfairians think will happen on Sunday lunch-time. Liverpool/Liverpool HT/FT is lower than evens at [1.84] – another lay possibility (?) – though Draw/Liverpool looks to have a bit of meat on the bone at [4.7].

I may be out on a limb here but I’m not devoid of common sense; so stuff like backing the returning Steven Gerrard To Score at [2.2] could be a good move. Fernando Torres is priced at [1.92] in that market – a reflection of both his quality, form and the opposition.

You can’t always put all your eggs in one basket on Betfair. I have in mind a cagey attempt by the Magpies to steal a point on Merseyside. They might not so, like me, whatever your fancy make sure you’re well covered too! Turning a profit’s what it’s all about…we can’t get rich on every game!

With the pressure on, David Moyse ‘Dogs of War’ are exactly the sort of side Sunderland wouldn’t want to be visiting the Stadium of Light on Sunday, says Richard Walker Best Bet:Lay Sunderland @ [2.68].

With only Chelsea left to visit Wearside after Everton this Sunday afternoon, Sunderland manager Ricky Sbragia must recognise this as the best opportunity his side are going to have to record an all-important three points – a victory would take them up to 38 points and, probably, safety, though they’d not say as much.

Bolton and Portsmouth are the Black Cats’ two remaining away games – in consecutive weeks before they end with that visit from the Blues. The pressure is on then; sadly, Everton are just the sort of side you don’t want to be playing when that’s the case. Lay Sunderland to a [2.68] liability is my shout of the day for this one.

They have the energy and the will – but I don’t believe they have the requisite quality to put away a side who’re still pushing hard, just because they always do, let alone the fact they want to go into late May’s FA Cup Final with some real gusto behind them.

You could back Everton at [2.94] or The Draw, a [3.4] chance, but I’m not certain which of these scenarios I fancy so it’s a Lay day for me. You may feel much stronger about one of the Match Odds and, if you do, good luck with your play.

Everton have been hit by the loss of Phil Jagielka, however they’re so used to dealing with injuries that you kind of forget they’re also without Mikel Arteta, Victor Anichebe, Nuno Valente and Yakubu. Sunderland’s two biggest misses are centre-half Nyron Nosworthy and keeper Craig Gordon, although back-up Marton Fulop has performed admirably.

I still think of David Moyes’ side as ‘Dogs of War’ – the title Joe Royle’s mid-90s team picked up for their resoluteness. Those hard-to-beat characteristics are still true today and I expect that to translate into a dearth of goals at The Stadium of Light for this Sky Sports offering. Under 2.5 goals, for the less brave, is there for you to get involved with at [1.69] to back (it’s [2.4] about Overs) but I don’t think you should be shy about grabbing a piece of the [2.96] which is available about an Under 1.5 goals finish.

That goes hand-in-hand with my assertion that the Wearside hosts will find it impossible to penetrate a defence which has only shipped 17 goals away from home this term. A Toffees’ Clean Sheet can – and, for me, should – be supported at [3.25]. It’s [1.39] to back No, which I find strange despite this being Sunderland’s hour of need driving them forward and exposing themselves to counter-attacking possibilites.

Correct Score wise, my eye is drawn to 0-0 at roughly [9.8] and 1-0 to Everton, priced about [9.2]. I certainly think, if you prefer to lay, that scores like 2-1 to Sunderland [13.0] and higher can be offered by you to other Bettors as scorelines which really don’t belong to the type of game this will most probably manifest itself as.

Likely someone with a nose for goal – rather than a more unlikely marksman – will unlock this game, if there is to be at least one goal. My old favourite Tim Cahill is [3.4] To Score with home team strikers Djibril Cisse [2.76] and Kenwyne Jones [2.98] among other choices you might want to think about. As he’s probably certain to start, I’ll be siding with Louis Saha, [3.25] in this list or [8.6] to be First Goalscorer.

Unless Sunderland emerge from their malaise, Saha just might be the scorer of the only goal. Sbragia’s boy can ill-afford this to happen.

Despite a weakened team, Richard Walker believes that Manchester United can succeed where Liverpool failed and take three points from the Riverside. Best Bet: Back 1-0 To Man Utd @ [7.2].

Sir Alex Ferguson would surely have hand-picked opponents such as Middlesbrough for his side to face in the Premier League with the two legs of the Champions League semi-final sandwiching it in.

And the straight-talking Scot has already got stuck into Sky Sports and league officials themselves for scheduling a 12.45pm Saturday lunch-time kick-off on the back of a hugely significant Wednesday night match.

All this really doesn’t matter; Man United will beat a limp Middlesbrough side who, by their nature and actions, have looked the most doomed of all the sides struggling to stay upwards of the dreaded dotted line. Yet I don’t think the Red Devils will hand out a pasting.

In fact, so confident am I about it being 1-0 to the reigning champions that I’ve made it my Best Bet for the match, at odds of reward around [7.2] when backed. Complement that selection, if you will, by backing Under 2.5 goals at [1.94]. Overs is [2.04] but, if Fergie is to be believed, I just can’t see it. He’s talking about resting a good few top names – however I suspect they’ll be on the bench if the job’s not getting done come the hour mark.

And while you’d logically argue Gareth Southgate simply has to send his team out looking for all three points, that won’t stop him taking a very cautious approach. Some sides have enjoyed success getting at Man U this year but, at this stage of the season, even a point from an unlikely source must be cherished.

That’s whay I’m suggesting you lay, at [3.8] to those who have in mind a glut of goals from the Riverside visitors. Okay, you don’t necessarily need an avalanche – since one unanswered in each half is sufficient – however I have a sense that the first-half will produce little more than tactical ennui from Boro and measured approach play from United (perhaps with a little fatigue in the legs to shake off from three days previous).

Neither side have loads of injures, however the loss of Rio Ferdinand for the Red Devils can never be taken lightly. Gary Neville and Owen Hargreaves are also missing while, for the hosts, they need contend without defenders Emanuel Pogatetz and Chris Riggott.

The Match Odds reflect the gap in quality, frankly, with United a little longer to back than the price in my mind’s eye at [1.59]. The Draw at [4.1] and Boro [7.4] make up the market. If your one who must play here, then I actually think [1.59] represents a fair price for a highly probable outcome.

Once again, I reckon it’s dangerous to get too involved in the goalscorer sections before the teams are announced. The likely market leaders might only have bit-part roles to play so how about going for one of the veterans to prosper.

Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes both had bit-part roles in the week and I’d expect them to start. They’re both around the [16.0] to [18.0] mark for First Goalscorer – and around [7.5] To Score at any time – for a game which I could well see settled by one of them holding their nerve in a goalscoring situation. For the hosts, Afonso Alves is rubbish, Marlon King and Tuncay work hard but don’t score many so, if you’re looking for an opposition cover selection, I think you could do far worse than the [10.0] to back about Adam Johnson To Score.

As fellow Betting @ Betfair writer and Boro fan ‘Mystical’ Mike Norman would corroborate, Boro tend to play well when it’s least expected. However for this one, even if they do, I can’t see them repelling the champions.

Andrew French makes his picks as nine months of football comes down to one afternoon to decide an automatic promotion place, who will contest the play-offs and the remaining relegation spot. Best Bet: Back Sheffield Utd to beat C Palace at [1.67].

As far as I’m concerned, you’ve got to follow those teams whose fate will be sealed by the final set of fixtures. Okay, I accept that nerves and the need to succeed will have a bearing, but give me a team with a whole season’s hopes to play for against a side that would have every reason to be thinking about clearing their lockers for the holiday season.

So, in that spirit, I am making Sheffield United my bet of the day. The Blades have come with a tremendous late surge that has thrust them into the automatic promotion battle – six wins in eight games at just the right time. What’s also key is that they are not letting goals in, having conceded just one in their last four outings.

If they win at Crystal Palace, and Birmingham fail to beat Reading, the Blades go up. And they couldn’t run into better opposition than Palace when their need is so great. The Eagles have won just once in eight and have looked distinctly mid-table for a while now.

Palace may have home advantage, but with ten wins on the road this season United have shown that they are hardy travellers. They have won recently at Reading and Cardiff and they will be roared on by a set of fans as noisy as any in the Championship – expect plenty of choruses of the ‘Greasy Chip Butty’ song in the away section.

Of course the other element to factor in is that Palace manager Neil Warnock is an ex-United manager and a Blades fan – as well as being someone who is be delighted to wreck a party when it’s least expected. But even with the Warnock factor considered, I still feel this is an occasion when the Blades will step up to the plate.

So, I am backing United at [1.67] – whether that will be good enough to earn them that second automatic spot is something I can’t call. I think the Reading/Birmingham game is the hardest of the closing-day fixtures to read and one that I will be leaving well alone.

At the other end of the table, I think the Canaries of Norwich will be sick as the proverbial parrots come Sunday night. They still have a chance of avoiding the drop, but losing at home to Reading on Monday has taken their fate out of their hands – and as it is, I think basement boys Charlton will deprive them of the win they need anyway.

The East Anglian outfit looked like a side doomed in Monday’s live game – and with only one away since mid-November, it would be asking a lot of them to win, without the do-or-die element of the day’s game. Allied to that, Charlton have suddenly found a bit of grit, albeit far too late, and their defeat at Derby last weekend was the first in six games. Therefore, the advice is to lay Norwich at [2.12].

Just to confirm my feelings that Norwich are doomed to the drop, I’m also going to back the draw in the only game that could save them: Plymouth v Barnsley.

The Canaries’ defeat on Monday ended Argyle’s relegation fears, and a point at Home Park will be good enough to keep Barnsley up as well. Drawing games has become an art for the Tykes in recent weeks: they have taken a point from four of their last five games.

Sometimes not needing to win can leave a team in no man’s land when it comes to deciding their approach, but I can foresee a pretty tepid affair with the home side having nothing to play for, and the away side needing merely to avoid losing. Therefore, it’s the draw for me at [3.15].

A thrilling climax looms in Scotland’s top league with so much riding on this weekend’s games.

It’s crunch time in the SPL and time to separate the men from the boys. Every team has played 33 games and every one, Motherwell aside, has found their level. With five matches remaining only one point separates Celtic ([1.71] for the title) and Rangers ([2.36]).

As well as one last showdown at Ibrox next week, the Glasgow duo face four other meetings against the rest of the sides who make up the top six and it makes for a thrilling climax.

Setanta Sports are covering every kick of the title race this weekend. The cameras will be at Ibrox on Sunday where Hearts visit for a third time this season but Celtic have the chance to set the bench mark on Saturday by grabbing three points from their lunch time kick-off in the Granite City.

Celtic generally have an excellent recent record at Pitoddrie. They lost here in January and needed a late equaliser to force a Scottish Cup replay last March, but in the six meetings prior, going back to December 2005, they pulled in a massive 16 points. Rangers, in comparison, have only managed one victory here in there last eight visits.

Gordon Strachan’s men look well placed to get back to winning ways at this ground as Aberdeen are a bit thin on the ground. The Dons are unbeaten in their 11 home games but they go into this one without Zander Diamond, Derek Young and Jamie Smith not to mention first-choice strike duo Darren Mackie and Lee Miller. Mark Kerr returns but it looks a tall order for the remainder of the squad to keep that unbeaten run going.

Everything points to Celtic on this one. The stats suggest that, at [1.67] in the Match Odds, they should be opposed perhaps but the circumstances dictate otherwise on this occasion. Aberdeen virtually always score in this fixture however so that also draws the attention to Over 2.5 goals at [1.93].

Rangers threw away two points in their last Ibrox meeting with Hearts just six weeks ago. Walter Smith’s men were 2-0 up and cruising after 45 minutes and Novo should have made it three shortly after the break. He struck the post however and Hearts went on to snatch a point with two goals in three minutes.

Kyle Lafferty was exceptional that day and scored the opener before being stretchered off on 35 minutes after an attempted quick turn in the area. He hasn’t featured since but is available for selection once again and returns to the squad along with Sasa Papac, Lee McCulloch and Pedro Mendes whose knock sustained against St Mirren isn’t as bad as first feared.

Last Saturday’s Scottish Cup semi-final victory signalled five consecutive wins for Rangers and matches their best run this season, first chalked in September. The Hearts game was the last time Rangers dropped anything, it was a sore one at the time and if the players have anything about them they have a score to settle.

As expected, the home side are strong favourites in the Match Odds at [1.42]. Hearts have decent players, particularly Aguir who could make the grade in Glasgow, but Rangers should have enough about them to see the game through this time. They are scoring freely, hitting the net 12 times in that run of five straight wins, and on this basis both Over 2.5 goals and Rangers HT/FT are worth backing at [1.9] and [2.16] respectively.

In essence, the final Old Firm game of the season kicks off this weekend. Both sides will have an edge to them, the players selected want to be involved at Ibrox next week and you find, more often then not, that both sides take the three points ahead of such crucial meetings. They both face tough opposition but the Rangers/Celtic multiple is worth backing this weekend at [2.2].

It would be doing the rest of the division a disservice if the almighty tussle for survival that we are about to witness didn’t get a mention. Here, only six points separate bottom club Falkirk ([1.36]), Inverness ([4.6]), St Mirren ([11.5]), Hamilton ([12.5]) and eighth-placed Kilmarnock ([13.0]). The unique nature of the SPL finale means they have all still to play each other so anything can happen and Falkirk could prove a good lay at this stage.

The Bairns face Motherwell this weekend so that’s at least two of their relegation rivals who won’t take three points and a win could kick-start the great escape. John Hughes’ side made it through to the Scottish Cup Final last weekend and the win should breed confidence in a side that looks to have turned the corner after taking four points from the last two home games.

You can talk all you want about Mark McGhee being a tough personality, demanding a strong finish from his side and building for next season, but the fact is Motherwell have nothing to play for. A home win at [2.48] throws the relegation fight wide open but the safe bet appears to be to lay Motherwell at [2.94].

A West London derby, Hughes and Campbell face their old clubs and Spurs look to get back on track after their trauma at Old Trafford – Mike Norman assesses Saturday’s 3 o’clock kick-offs. Best Bet: Back Arsenal to beat Portsmouth @ [2.4].

Chelsea [1.58] v Fulham [8.4]; The Draw [3.95]

Regardless of whether Chelsea accept that the Premier League title has gone, I’d still expect them to field a relatively strong side against West London rivals Fulham. The Cottagers haven’t won at Stamford Bridge for nearly 30 years, and I don’t expect that stat to change today.

For two teams that have been strong defensively this season, the [1.86] about Under 2.5 Goals seems a fair price, but recent history suggests Over 2.5 Goals (available to back at [2.12] is the way to play. The last 10 Premier League games between these two sides have averaged 3.1 goals per game, whilst the last five at Stamford Bridge have averaged 3.2 per game.

Man City [2.02] v Blackburn [4.3]; The Draw [3.55]

I was in Benidorm last weekend, which is just as well as it must have snowed in England when Manchester City finally recorded just their second away win in the Premier League. City are very strong at home however, and I can’t seem them losing to a Blackburn side that are without David Dunn, Roque Santa Cruz and Jason Roberts.

With Blackburn’s attacking prowess significantly reduced, I like the look of the Yes option to a Man City Clean Sheet – available to back at [2.94]. Correct Scores of 2-0 [11.5] and 3-0 [21.0] to City are also worth an interest at rewarding odds.

Portsmouth [3.4] v Arsenal [2.4]; The Draw [3.35]

Expect wholesale changes in the Arsenal team ahead of their return fixture with Manchester United in the Champions League. But whatever team Arsene Wenger puts out (and it will almost certainly include the brilliant Andrei Arshavin) I think the expectation on Portsmouth to win will be too much and the [2.4] about a Gunners victory is too good to miss.

The fact that Pompey haven’t beaten Arsenal for over half a century adds further confidence to an away victory, as does Pompey’s record against the top four clubs this season – played seven, lost seven (home and away).

Recommended bets therefore are Arsenal/Arsenal [4.1] in the Half Time/Full Time market, and Arshavin to be the First Goalscorer (will be available to back at around the [9.0] mark once the market matures) and To Score at anytime [3.2].

Stoke [2.42] v West Ham [3.35]; The Draw [3.35]

I fancy Stoke to win this one. They have an impressive home record, are expected to name James Beattie in the starting line-up (having missed the defeat to Fulham) and will probably play with a lot less pressure now that their Premier League status is almost certainly secured.

As I’ve pointed out before though, The Potters don’t score many (only once this season have they scored three in a game) so Correct Scores of 1-0 ([8.0]) and 2-0 ([13.0]) are probably the safest ways to play. Under 2.5 Goals is just [1.72] to back, but is a far more likely outcome than Over 2.5 Goals (available to back at [2.34]) in my opinion.

Tottenham [1.49] v West Brom [8.4]; The Draw [4.5]

It’s not much more than a hunch, but I fancy Spurs to slip up here. Whether it’s by drawing or losing I’m not so sure, so a lay on Tottenham at [1.51] is my advice. I just feel West Brom have accepted they are going down, and now that they have – as last week’s win over Sunderland showed – the pressure is off and individual performances have improved.

I can see the Baggies soaking up a lot of pressure and looking to hit Tottenham on the break. At big odds, Draw/Draw ([7.4]) and Draw/West Brom ([20.0]) in the Half Time/Full Time market, and 0-0 ([16.0]) and 0-1 ([27.0]) in the Correct Score market are worth considering to split stakes. I could be completely wrong of course, but this game is all about opinions and taking a chance from time to time.

Wigan [2.18] v Bolton [4.0]; The Draw [3.35]

This game goes down as the day’s biggest dead rubber, and one that I have very little interest in. Granted, both teams might not treat it as such and until they are mathematically safe will probably go all out for victory. But even then, I couldn’t call the result.

The Draw is the obvious selection then at [3.35], but try a few Correct Score bets on 1-1 and 2-2 – available to back at [7.2] and [19.5] respectively. Egyptian compatriots Mido and Amr Zaki will head the First Goalscorer market (at around [8.0] once it matures) but I’m a huge Kevin Davies fan and would take a chance on the Bolton forward at around [10.0].

The Joker recommends that you back the one time scourge of Alan Shearer et al…

The latest instalment of the Joker’s occasional series on forgotten heroes of European football features Trelleborgs, the Swedish part-timers who ended Blackburn Rovers’s first ever European campaign in the first round of the 1994/95 UEFA Cup.

Rovers’s smorgasbord of talent cost almost £30 million; Trelleborgs’s players were on a 20 krona bonus for scoring. Fredrik Sandell, a supplier of ink to local newspapers in his day job, took his opportunity to write the headlines, scoring the only goal of the first leg.

Alan Shearer was part of the Blackburn team that day. Might he have learnt something about expensively assembled, underperforming Premier League teams?

Not just yet, if Newcastle United’s recent results are anything to go by.

Since Swedish football started up again at the beginning of April, Orgryte have lost all six of their league and cup games. Trelleborgs, who finished last season strongly and are unbeaten in nine at Vangavallen, look good at [1.69] to win this evening.

On the eve of a crucial promotion battle, Shrewbury’s right back discusses the big games in League Two, his determination to land silverware and why Chelsea might yet fail to make the Champions League final.

Well, this is the last article that I shall write before the last game of the regular season this Saturday…

As I stated last week, our fate is still in our own hands and, although last week’s result against Lincoln was a disappointment, the result – barring a defeat – was neither here nor there as we take on Dagenham & Redbridge who occupy the last play-off place with only two points between us!

This is a must-win game and I believe we are taking 1,400 fans which shows the level of support we get – all of these sort of factors have an important part to play as well.
This is the first time in my career that the last remaining fixture has something riding on it, which is the same for Exeter and Bury who are in the race to clinch third spot. If you had told me that those two would have been fighting it out for the last automatic place I wouldn’t have believed you. Credit must go to both of their managers who have done a fantastic job.

Bury take on Accrington at Gigg Lane…Let’s hope none of their players have bet on themselves to lose this year! I can see Bury winning this one to be honest. Exeter undoubtedly have the harder task, away at Rotherham who will want to finish in the “real top three” (the table without points deductions for financial issues). Exeter are the better equipped team for life in League One; I was most impressed with them on the two occassions we came across them and I would go as far to say that they are the best footballing team that we have come up against this term.

The only trophies that I have won so far are two reserve league titles, the latest one coming this week when I skippered the team to victory in our final reserve team game of the season. I’m still waiting for the trophy to lift, medal and of course a bottle of bubbly!

It is in stark contrast to the last time I won a reserve title way back when I was 17 and I lifted the Barclaycard Premiership reserve league title with Watford. We had to win our last game at home to West Ham to clinch the title infront of 4,500 fans at Vicarage Road. Fortunately we won the game 1-0, the celebrations that followed were pretty decent for a ressie league. It’s pretty much the same as when one of the Premiership teams win the league; trophy, champers and a solid gold medal.

It was a proud moment for me being a YTS player and considering I made the most appearances it was something to be proud of. Obviously it is nice to win trophies and does give you an appetite to win more but I’m desperate to add a proper trophy to these two.

The Champions League is probably the most important trophy to win at club level and this week Chelsea did one part of the job, holding many people’s favourite’s Barcelona at The Nou Camp. Sometimes in football the performance is secondary to the result and this was definitely the case on Tuesday night.

Many people think that Chelsea have done the hard part by not conceding but I think they will be really up against it at ‘The Bridge’. Chelski have to win the game, simple as that, a draw won’t be enough so Guus Hiddink’s side are going to have to come out and attack, thus leaving more space for Lionel Messi and co to get to work.

Don’t get me wrong I have played in many games where the performance has been negative and disciplined. I remember a game against Peterborough a few years back where we won 2-0 but literally had 10 men behind the ball for 90 minutes and managed to score from the only two attempts that we had. Needs must sometimes.

Staying on the Chelsea theme, Hiddink should be delighted that Peter Cech was back to his old best on Tuesday night. The Czech pulled of some top saves to keep Barca at bay and looked as though he was never going to be beaten. It shows great character on Cech’s part because many pundits have been throwing stick his way in recent weeks.

Chelsea take on their West London rivals Fulham this weekend at Stamford Bridge. My last betting tip was an absolute shocker no thanks to a certain Mr Webb! But for this week I can’t see past a Chelsea win at [1.53] and if Cech is in the same inspired form as he was midweek you can expect a Chelsea clean sheet at [2.06] to back.

Gareth Southgate’s men will be fighting for their lives at the Riverside on Saturday and, with one eye on their Champions League semi-final, could Manchester United stutter on the big four’s least happy North East hunting ground? Best Bet: Back 1-1 @ 9.2 and 0-1 @ 7.0 (split stakes)

Match Odds

After being outclassed at the Emirates last weekend, Middlesbrough’s quest for survival continues against another Big Four side with the visit of the champions to the Riverside. Middlesbrough have been something of a bogey side for United, with the Red Devils not winning back-to-back league matches against them since 2001 and having a worse win rate in that time (W6-D4-L4) against only Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City.

While ‘Boro were demolished 5-0 here by Chelsea in their first game hosting the Big Four this season, they have lost only two of their subsequent 13 home league games — including a draw with Arsenal and a win over Liverpool — and are unbeaten at home in 2009. Indeed, in the last four years they have lost only three of their 15 home games against the Big Four, going W3-D5-L3 under Southgate.

The task facing Man Utd then, is sterner than the league table might suggest. However, they have had an extreme split in their away record this season — failing to win at any of the six sides immediately below them but going W9-D1-L0 against those currently in eighth or below. Over the previous two seasons they won three quarters (W15-D3-L2) of their games at bottom-half finishers — including 10 of 12 (W10-D0-L2) at the bottom six — which would imply value in their [1.49] win price.

While United’s record in these games is predictably strong, ‘Boro’s recent resilience at home and, in particular, against the Big Four makes it hard to plump for the away win and we would avoid the result market.

Correct score

The 0-0 and 1-1 draws (both 4/17) account for nearly half of the scores at the Riverside this season, with the 1-1 and 2-0 win (both 2/8) most common against current top-half sides. 1-1 is also their most common scoreline hosting the Big Four under Southgate (3/11), with the 2-1 win (2/11) the only other score to occur more than once.

Half (5/10) of United’s games at the teams from outside the top seven this season have finished
1-0, while no score dominates their recent form against bottom-half finishers (2-1 tops with 4/20 over the past two seasons).

The 1-0 away win ([7.0]) and 1-1 ([9.2]) both warrant consideration here, either with split stakes or as longer-priced options to backing or laying United.

HT/FT

United’s first-half record at bottom-half finishers over the past two seasons is unimpressive (W6-D11-L3), recording more D/Ws (eight) than W/Ws (six). This season they have had one more W/W (four) than D/W (three) at the current bottom-half sides but the prevailing trend is that for those backing the away win, there is more value to be had in taking United to D/W ([4.6]).
Thanks mostly to four goalless draws, the D/D (5/17) has been the most common double result at the Riverside this season, with that also the most common (4/11) at home to the Big Four under Southgate.

Middlesbrough clean sheet

Middlesbrough’s 2-0 win over Liverpool was only their second clean sheet in 11 games hosting the Big Four since Southgate took charge, although they have recorded four in their last six home matches.

United have failed to score three times on the road this season –all against teams currently in the top half — and they have done so in only two of their 20 at bottom-half finishers over the past two seasons.

Man Utd clean sheet

United have kept just one clean sheet in their last eight league games and none in their last three on the road. They have blanked five of the seven bottom-half teams away this season but have conceded in the last two such matches. ‘Boro have scored in eight of Southgate’s 11 games at home to the Big Four, though they have failed to score as often as any side in the league at home this season (7/17).

Alan Dudman is looking forward to a trip to the dentists but a number of managers will be hoping their players don’t let them down with toothless displays on the final day of the League One season. Best Bet: Back Brighton HT/FT to beat Stockport.

It’s D-day folks. And that stands for two things this week. From a personal point of view, ‘d’ is for dentist. My front teeth lost an argument with a particularly nasty baguette on Monday, and I am off to get them sorted. However, there are far more exciting developments in store this Saturday – as D-day could stand for errr, relegation (demotion? ed). Let the scrap for survival begin.

Mind you, I am quite looking forward to seeing my dentist again this week, she reminds me of the girlfriend of Marcus in the BBC’s much underrated soap/drama/comedy Eldorado.

We move on at pace. And just to recap on what can happen for those who have been away for the past nine months (perhaps in Spain?), here we go……..

Leicester and Posh are up. The play-off spots are all but fixed, bar Tranmere and
Scunthorpe fighting for the final place. Northampton need at least a point to give themselves a chance for survival. Carlisle have to beat Millwall to stay up, whilst Brighton can guarantee their status in the division by beating Stockport at home. Hartlepool are still mathematically in the mix, and need a point at Bristol Rovers to assure their future.

You still with me?

Regarding the relegation market. Crewe have all but lost the fight and trade at [1.02] to go
down. Carlisle’s price is [1.32]. Brighton and Northampton are both around [4.70], and
Hartlepool (who have a superior goal difference), can be backed at a whopping [55.00].

Brighton and Hove Albion [1.56] v Stockport County [6.60], the draw [3.95]

This game virtually sold out on Monday, and the atmosphere will be red hot for a game that Albion simply have to win to keep themselves in League One for next season.

Brighton always remind me of a good pal of mine from a few years back. Gaz loved the Seagulls, and I am sure he’ll be there praying his team get the result. Good luck
Gazza – I hope you do.

The fans of course can play a huge part this weekend, and I hope the players feel the full force from the crowd. Russell Slade’s side have done what most sides do when
faced with the drop – and started to win games. They’ve taken 13 points from a possible 18 recently, and can make one final push across the survival line.

It’s a pretty silly price at [1.56], but with the stakes so high, you were never going to get anything above evens. Stockport are huge considering the young talent they have, but their season is over, and Jim Gannon will be a manager that quite a few clubs will be interested in over the summer months.

Recent signing Lloyd Owusu has been an absolute star in bagging six goals from six games. He’s red hot, and with messrs Hart and Murray possibly back in the frame, the Seagulls look unopposable here.

Recommendations: Back Brighton HT/FT
Back Brighton to win 2-0

Carlisle United [1.96] v Millwall [2.06], the draw [3.75]

Remember Carlisle winning five of their first eight games at the start of the season? Seems a long time ago doesn’t it? Well it’s been a wretched run since, and Greg Abbott’s side now face relegation.

Their last win was back in March, and it doesn’t look great. They need a win, and need it badly, as three points here could mean survival.

Carlisle have Jimmy Glass as their guest of honour on Saturday. And if you don’t know who he is, well shame on you! Ten years ago the goalkeeper pulled off one of the most amazing pieces of football history. But can lightning strike twice?

Northampton’s loss in midweek was a major boost for the Cumbrians, and they take on a Millwall side who have already secured a play-off berth.

From a punting point of view these games can be a nightmare. Carlisle’s form doesn’t warrant that price – but the situation does. Millwall are the better side, but will Kenny Jackett rest a few players with the play-offs in mind?

The Lions are in really good nick, and momentum is a word that will be mentioned with the bigger games in mind. Perhaps they might have an eye on the semi-final, but victory could mean a top four finish – and a top four finish equals a favourable schedule for the play-offs.

It’s a really tricky game this one, but with so much at stake for the home side, I will ask for [2.00] on them winning.

Recommendations: Back Carlisle @ [2.00] to beat Millwall

Managers and players face tricky dilemmas as Ian Lamont looks ahead to the final day of the League Two season. Best Bet: Lay Exeter at Rotherham at [2.1].

In the words of the great philosopher Homer Simpson, if you don’t try you’ll never fail – and if you have no ambition you can’t be disappointed.

That “why bother?” aphorism sprung to mind when faced with second guessing this week’s final day matches in League Two.

Look what happened in the final round of the Blue Square Premier last weekend. Five of the top seven teams needed to win to secure, or improve, play-off positions. Only one won – sinking the faltering champions: Burton Albion have much to do to be a League Two force next season.

So, with complete trepidation I foretell Bury sneaking that final automatic promotion place and Dagenham holding on to seventh.

The Shakers could pinch promotion from Exeter, who hold third but hardly any aces. Only a few weeks ago one of their players said he was thrilled at the prospect of a third successive play-offs.

That underlined their expectations – and that they have exceeded them by sitting in the top three. Furthermore, the [2.1] about them to win away against Rotherham is typical of the layers offering a short price for teams who have to win, simply believing many will pile into them because they must win. I’ll take the lay, because Exeter might have proved Wycombesque in overcoming the stern defenders of Lincoln on their last away trip, but that was courtesy of a very late own goal.

The Grecians’ record on long trips North this season is poor. Since beating Macclesfield, Bury and Port Vale in September and October they have not won anywhere near the North on their travels. In fact, in the past 10 away trips, they have only won at Luton and Lincoln.

Paul Tisdale is a decent tactician but he has his work cut out to beat a Millers side that has lost once in 11 home games. Manager Mark Robins wants to win. “We still have that target of an equivalent top three place,” he said, presumably with an eye on next season.

Exeter – as seems their habit away – might get a draw, but Bury most certainly should despatch Accrington Stanley. The wobbles got to Chesterfield last week against John Coleman’s side, but Bury are at home and with four out of five wins at Gigg Lane.

Cambridge United’s failure to break down Altrincham in last Sunday’s Blue Square Premier is a cautionary tale, but while Stanley can be stubborn in defence and will play with no fear, this is the chance for Bury’s front six to prove why I have so admired their interweaving, interchanging style this season. At such a short price they are a tentative recommendation.

Striker Glynn Hurst has been praised by Alan Knill for waiting patiently for his chance, then netting four goals in three games before last Saturday’s goalless draw at Gillingham. The strikers know there is no room for slacking. Andy Morrell must be itching for another chance.

Bury are very short to back – and if they don’t manage victory then there is a very real chance last week’s draw in Kent will be repeated in the play-off final.

A similar “sizing each other up” affair looks likely for Gillingham, at Rochdale. There is something strange occurring in Kent, with Gills boss Mark Stimson saying he might rest a couple of players and ask the rest if they want to play or keep themselves fresh for the play-offs.

That’s a new psychological strategy on me, but it might work. The players hardly want to risk giving away home advantage in the play-off second leg do they?

The pair could face each other next Thursday, and will if Dagenham draw with Shrewsbury in what looks the distinctly possible scenario. The Daggers are more attack-minded but Shrewsbury are sure to throw everything at them. But I don’t see it being enough.

Paul Stimpson might be tempted to say to his players: let’s see how the Daggers deal with the new pressure of holding the play-off spot his Shrews have had all season. But the momentum is with John Still’s side. They have four straight wins at Victoria Road, four wins from the last five games, four players who have scored more than 10 goals and the highest number of goals at home in the division.

Shrewsbury have two wins away all season, the most recent a fortnight ago courtesy of an own goal. The visitors are a big price lay at [3.5] (3.0 with regular bookies but you’ll be lucky to get that on Betfair), but with the play-offs effectively starting now, if you want a bigger return go for the draw at [3.2] in a game in which they have to score.

The Boz gets under the skin of the value in the Blue Square play-off promotion picture…Best Bet: Lay Torquay at [3.4] or less in the BSP Promotion market.

I hold two strong opinions about the Blue Square Premier play-offs.

The first is that Histon are still, for me, the BSP team of the year. They have quite simply played the best football most consistently and it is of decided interest that they are available on the Betfair promotion market at [5.0] – the outsider of four.

As you know, I specialise in this league and had Burton Albion as a pre-season pick for the title and the way I read their experience in the last six games is that they won the title and are just about to be considered worthy winners because they beat Histon 3-1 when they needed to. Without that win, and arguably Cambridge’s failure to win at home to Altrincham on Sunday, Burton would have gone down as the greatest wobblers of all time. Fact of immense significance to me that leads to fancying Histon for the play-offs at the price and being extremely concerned about Cambridge’s credentials to pick up what they failed to last season.

The second strong opinion is that Torquay are a lay for me in the play-off outrights again this year, just as they were last year. There’s a bit more mettle at Plainmoor now and Chris Hargreaves does lead by example but I still feel that we’ve seen the signs of how Torquay wilt under the pressure in recent weeks with their 0-2 at home to Crawley and their 1-1 at Barrow. Yes, the final day win against Burton slightly disproves the theory but man for man, I can’t have Torquay as the best footballing team of these four – who are extremely closely matched – as the bookmakers and the Betfair market seem to. [3.35] for the Gulls to go up is incredibly short based on what they achieved this season, especially when you look at their home form and the five defeats they suffered there.

Aswell as Crawley, they lost at home to Ebbsfleet, Kidderminster, Salisbury and Weymouth. It bodes ill to me for their first leg on Friday night for which they are even money favourite. Even if they get past my favourites Histon, I see Torquay struggling to assert in the final be it against Cambridge or Stevenage. And I find it tough to split those two but just marginally come down on Stevenage with Cambridge’s final day 0-0 being my raison d’etre. I can’t have Cambridge after the way they flopped in the play-off final last year and failed to score against Stuart Coburn when the remit was to bag a hatful on Sunday!

It’s a Histon-Stevenage final for me with Histon great betting value in the outrights. The only negative I can find about Steve Fallon’s troops – who are fantastically managed – is that Histon as a club may still feel that it is too early for them to be entering the big time of the Football League. It’s a minor niggle that I don’t expect to be a factor in the Torquay games but may cause me to hedge them once they get to the Wembley final. The [5.0] price allows room for that.

The Blue Square South semi-final first leg play-offs were emphatic away wins for Hampton and Eastleigh who should now fight out the final for which the Beavers are [1.94] favourites to atone for their narrowly missing out in same event last year against Eastbourne. Given the way that Garry Wilson’s Sports acquitted themselves in the Premier this year, having looked slightly fortunate to squeak past Hampton in the play-offs last year, I think things bode well for Beavers fans for whom Lawrence Yaku is in fine goalscoring form. I make them a confident tip to be playing Blue Square Premier football next season.

The BSN play-offs could easily stand for Blue Square Nightmare for betting purposes as a case can be made for any one of the four to prevail ahead of tonight’s first leg games. The betting forecast reflects it and you never saw a market where the true mathematical odds of [4.0] the field were more apt. Impossible to narrow down to a cogent tip but The Boz is taking AFC Telford purely because its fan base is so impressive and worth a goal or two in every game. Their Setanta Shield and FA Trophy semi-final achievements this year were no fluke and I’m hopeful that their nerve will hold and allow them to atone for last season’s disappointing play-off performance against Barrow. This is, after all, the age of the supporter owned football club and AFC Telford are continuing as one of the bright beacons that pioneered, and act as flagship, for that cause.