As the cricketing world is gripped with the IPL, the likes of Andrew Strauss, James Anderson and Shivnarine Chanderrpaul will be in their favourite habitat that is Test cricket as the first Test at Lord’s kicks off on Wednesday, reports Ed Hawkins.

From one extreme to the other. Players and punters alike will switch attention from the Indian Premier League to five-day Test match cricket on Wednesday when England and West Indies meet in the first Test at Lord’s.

No 20-over slugfest, strategy breaks or dancing girls. Just a clip off the legs for two, a lunch and tea break and MCC members dozing in the afternoon. It sounds pretty good to me, particularly when you factor in the potential for value; England are [2.20], West Indies [7.20] and the draw [2.40].

Despite Twenty20 being at the other end of the spectrum to Test matches, it is hard to see how it will not have an affect on the outcome of this first Test of two. Chris Gayle, the West Indies captain, arrived just two days before the start of the match after his stint with Kolkata Knight Riders in the IPL in South Africa while Ravi Bopara, Kevin Pietersen and Paul Collingwood used the competition to ‘warm-up’ for the series.

Neither coach is happy. West Indies’ John Dyson has criticised Gayle’s late arrival while new England supreme Andy Flower reckons that his trio are “underprepared”, particularly Collingwood who proved to be so good at carrying the drinks for the Delhi Daredevils that they made him do it permanently.

It would be no bad thing if the IPL stars on show – Windies paceman Fidel Edwards was also involved but arrived here on May 1 – did play as if they have left their brains back in South Africa because Lord’s desperately needs a result to restore its credibility as a venue.
Six straight stalemates at the home of the game does little for the image of the five-day game when it is most under threat. Thankfully, we should get one, though and it is down to another shift in culture.

Just as the IPL and Tests matches are different beasts, so is batting with the Caribbean sun blazing on your back as opposed to a chilly southwesterly jabbing you in the kidneys on a chilly May morning in north London.

West Indies’ players have struggled on tour so far having been introduced to something called the swinging ball. They crashed to a 10-wicket defeat against the England Lions, which followed on from being bowled out for 146 against Essex.

It is all a far cry from when the sides met in the West Indies in the spring. Then the ball steadfastly refused to swing for England’s bowlers, who have not taken 20 wickets in a Test since August.

But rather like sailors denied shore leave, they will surely (this is not a tongue twister) take advantage at Headquarters when the ball starts to dip for the earliest Test staged there.
Admittedly, the omens do not look good for an England side who are again without the injured Andrew Flintoff (wonder where he picked up his latest niggle?) and since 2000 have won four of the nine first Tests of the summer with three coming against no-hopers Bangladesh, Zimbabwe and New Zealand.

Still, when they wander through the Lord’s gates they should get a good vibe. Although the draw has been king, England have absolutely dominated and can claim to have been denied crucial match-winning time by the weather in five of those stalemates.

Crucially, there is no rain forecast for any of the first four days so there is ample time to forge a winning position before darker clouds arrive on the final day.

If backing England is too much of a stretch, you will not go far wrong by expecting plenty of runs from the England batsmen. In the last seven Tests at this venue that they have batted first, England have five times score 500 or more. There is profit to be made on the innings runs markets. In an immature market they are [1.61] for 425 runs or more.

Other value lies, as ever, in the top first-innings runscorer markets. To take our lead from Flower we should forget Bopara, Pietersen and the drinks waiter and instead plump for Andrew Strauss. In sterling form for Middlesex – he whacked a magnificent ton against Leicestershire in double quick time – Strauss is [4.00] for honours and averages 60 at Lord’s.

For West Indies, and to ram home the point that the IPL and Tests are worlds apart, Shiv Chanderpaul – top-scored on his last two visits – and Brendan Nash have the techniques to flourish. The next five days will all be about blocking, rather than Bollywood blockbusters.

It’s been an inconsistant start so far for the reigning champions the Rajasthan Royals who now face the Kings Punjab XI, captained by Yuvraj Singh. Side with the consistency, says TQ…

Team News

It doesn’t get much tighter than Kings XI Punjab’s last encounter. A scrambled single off the final ball was enough to see them home and that may well turn out to be the biggest win of their campaign. Coming after a truly dreadful defeat to Bangalore Royal Challengers, they made a few personnel changes and also an alteration to their batting order. Sunny Sohal came in for Goel and after a quick fire 25 expect him to retain his place in an otherwise unchanged line-up.
Defending champions Rajasthan Royals have had a far from enjoyable time this year.

But with the games coming so thick and fast you can turn it around just as easily. Just like the Kings XI, Rajasthan are coming off a scrambled win. At 3/3 in their last game you would have given them little to no chance of a victory but they showed tremendous resilience. The mainstay of that was from an unlikely source in Lee Carseldine and he will retain his place and the only person I can see being replaced is ineffectual opener Asnodkar. Teams have worked him out this year and he isn’t having the same impact he had last time around.

Venue, pitch and conditions

Once again we are off to Durban for back to back games and with this being the opening game of the two we will have to trust that previous conditions will be repeated. We have seen some big scores at this Kingsmead track through the tournament, although the last couple of games have struggled to see scores of over 140. Expect good batting conditions for this encounter and you should find whoever wins the toss will elect to bat first.

Match Odds

Kings XI Punjab will be slight favourites for this match and on form you would have to say they will be the team supported in the run up to the match. You can’t trust Warne’s troops to produce on a regular basis so on that alone the only bet you can get involved in prior to the game is to back Kings XI Punjab.

Other markets

Kings XI definitely have a lot of big hitters in their armoury and couple that with Rajasthan Royals seemingly endless run of poor starts it would be a surprise to me if the Kings XI didn’t make more of the opening six overs. Check this market out and try and try and get something around the [1.75] mark.

TQ says: Back Kings XI Punjab to beat Rajasthan Royals at [1.8]

At the off the the Kolkata Knight Riders looked a formidable side loaded with top order big-hitters but they have been a huge disappointment so far and things are unlikely to get any easier against the Delhi Daredevils, says TQ.

Team News

The Delhi Daredevils are a winning side with a lot going for them and as such they have not been prone to many team changes thus far. That is up until their last game when they were comprehensively beaten by Chennai. Will that plant seeds of doubt in the Delhi minds or will they get back to winning ways? Collingwood and Shah have been forced to watch this from the sidelines and how they wish they could have played against Chennai. Captain Gambhir will go back to his winning line-up with Vettori coming back to bolster the bowling.

Kolkata Knight Riders are a team in desperate trouble and it is difficult to see what they can do to make things any better. They packed the top order with stars and they failed to produce. Chris Gayle was hailed as the man to rock this tournament but he has been slightly hampered by injury and not hit the spots. He is now on his way to play for the West Indies so expect the only change to be him being replaced by Mendis.

Venue, pitch and conditions

This is the second game in Durban on Tuesday and for a precise guide to conditions it would certainly pay to watch the Kings XI Punjab v Rajasthan Royals game prior to this. The last time we had back to back games here both games were surprisingly low scoring. I don’t expect the same this time with scores expected in excess of 150 with the conditions expected.
Match Odds

There is no doubt that the Daredevils are going to start favourites for this match and rightly so. The question you have to ask yourself is: does the [1.7] about the Daredevils look just a little too short? The Knight Riders came into this event with plenty of promise but they have yet to deliver on that. However, could this be the day when all that changes?

Other markets

Using the first match on this pitch as a guide, you may want to get involved in the Innings Runs market. The market will form once the toss has been made and just glancing back at previous matches the second match often follows very similarly to the first. Assuming there is nothing out of the ordinary in the first game take a punt on the same innings runs bracket in this match.

TQ says: Back Delhi Daredevils to beat Kolkata Knight Riders at [1.7]

As the England Test team deal with injuries, captaincy and coaching issues the England Lions look an energetic and talented bunch who have just thrashed the West Indies, says Frank Gregan.

The English cricketing authorities have come in for a lot of stick of late. The powers that be have had to endure the “guilt by association” accusation that was levelled at them when Sir Allen Stanford’s hand was trapped in the till and Giles Clark looked as gullible as a Brit on the Algarve that has discovered three symbols the same on a timeshare scratch card!

They then had to handle the disaster that was the Pietersen and Moores spat which left the English dressing room with morale lower than a limbo dancer’s buns. The English players trudged out to the middle in the Caribbean during the recent series against the West Indies looking like galley slaves heading for another day at the office!

The role of the selectors is to find a winning combination because no matter what is happening in the wings, as long as the stage performance is sound, nothing else matters. Winning is everything in sport and the selectors have to do everything in their power to put a side out there that is balanced, talented and hungry for success. And would you believe it – they’ve finally managed to do so!

A rampant England spanked a near full test strength West Indian side at the County Ground in Derby last week. There was an eight wicket haul for a twenty year old medium pace bowler, four wickets and a knock of 72 from a twenty one year old all rounder and five catches by our wicket keeper who also added an impressive 117 runs during his one visit to the crease.

Sadly, Chris Woakes, Adil Rashid and Tim Ambrose, the three players who produced those figures will not be involved in the first match of a two test series against the West Indies that gets underway on Wednesday at Lords because it was the England Lions who were impressive last week and not the high-earning centrally-contracted under achievers who are currently basking in the glory of a One Day Series win in the Caribbean gained with all the skill of a lottery jackpot winner!

In the best tradition of the Office’s David Brent and his clichés, the selectors should now be ‘thinking outside the box,’ “embracing the opportunity’ and ’seizing the moment’. In a nutshell, they should be putting out the same team that battered the Windies last week and saying to Strauss and crew, “you want to play in the Ashes you’ll have to wait until this team produces the kind of form that you lot have been showing for the better part of a year!”

It won’t happen of course and there is every chance that England will win this series, not because they are any good but because the Windies look to be more punch drunk than Ricky Hatton! Their preparation for this series has been awful with two of their star players – Fidel Edwards and Chris Gayle - staying in South Africa with the IPL until the last possible moment before joining the squad. Added to that during their four innings on this tour so far they have failed to reach 250 three times suggesting that they are there for the taking.

They have not won a test series against one of the other members of the “big eight” on foreign soil since 1995 which was the year that Newcastle had that massive points lead at Christmas in the Premier League, Bon Jovi were topping the charts with “Always” and cricket loving John Major was Prime Minister. That is a long time ago and if they have anything about them they must realise this is a great opportunity to lay that ghost to rest.

But the Windies are famous for their laid back approach and Coach John Dyson sees nothing in their preparation to cause concern. That attitude should cost them dearly but England being as poor as they are, they may well let them off the hook. It’s [1.74] to back England for a series win, [3.15] for the draw and [7] on Chris Gayle and his men being victorious.

Tough call – the [1.74] about England, given the current state of the West Indies side looks value, England have held firm at that price and not shortened despite the defeat that the Lions inflicted on the opposition. Still, this is the England cricket team and I can’t bring myself to back them at odds on so I’ll be laying them. If it were the Lions however………

Two of the most fearsome opening partnerships of the IPL lock horns in today’s match at East London with the likes of Matthew Hayden, Adam Gilchrist and Heschelle Gibbs on show and it should prove to be a cracker, says Mandeep Dhanoa.

These two heavyweight teams meet in a mouth-watering clash on Monday. Can Chennai narrow the gap, and help secure a spot in the top four?

Team News

Both teams are becoming increasingly settled when it comes to finding the right balance in their eleven The importance of the match should result in both teams playing close to their perceived strongest line ups. Chennai will continue with the prolific Hayden and Raina and know they can rely on some lower order big-hitters such as Dhoni and Oram. Murali will as ever play a vital role, particularly if Chennai can bat first.

Deccan will look to their star opening partnership to continue their great starts. Rohit Sharma continues to impress, as do some of the more unknown young Indian players such as Tirumalsetti Suman. Look for Dwayne Smith to play an important role with bat and ball. Ojha and RP Singh will be looking to continue their excellent performances so far in this tournament.
Venue, pitch and conditions

This match will be only the second at East London. This beautiful and picturesque venue held the recent match between the Kolkata Knight Riders and the Mumbai Indians. In that match the aggressive pairing of Jayasuriya and Tendulkar struggled to score at over a run a ball, and only a superb late rally from JP Duminy helped the team to post a target of 149. Chasing proved to be difficult, and only two players from Kolkata made any significant contributions.

So the middle order could be crucial here, and I believe Dhoni’s batting could be the key here today. Together with the sensational Raina and the improved Badrinath, I give Chennai the edge. As ever Murali will be extremely difficult to play, particularly in the second innings.
The ground itself is on the small side, which will help the six hitters. This is an area where both teams thrive. Whilst the likes of Gibbs, Gilchrist, Sharma and Dwayne Smith are all capable of smashing the ball out of the park for the Chargers, so are Hayden, Raina, Dhoni and Oram for the Super Kings. Gilchrist is top of the IPL Most Sixes table with 13, closely followed by Suresh Raina.

Match Odds

The market likes Chennai, and gives them a slight edge. Currently you can back Chennai to win at [1.83]. Part of the reason Chennai are often favoured is the reliability of Matthew Hayden. He so rarely fails and always has a superb strike rate. This means he regularly provides a trading opportunity. Hayden has stated in interviews this season that his objective is to make use of the first 6 over fielding restrictions and try and hit over the top.

However Deccan themselves arguably have an even better opening pair. Gilchrist and Gibbs can demolish an attack on their own. With both performing well, the left hand right hand combination is formidable.

The difference may well in the middle order when pace is taken off the ball. Rohit Sharma and Suresh Raina are both sensational young talents, and have had an impressisve tournament so far. Dhoni however has an acute ability to assess the conditions, pitch and opposition, and adapt his game accordingly. He can play a support/anchor role, or be the one to attack the bowling. Deccan’s top order must perform if they are to win. Chennai can afford some failures and still have a good batting performance. [1.83] may at first seem a tad short, as these teams are very closely matched, but in the grand scheme of things is the one that represents the value.

Top Batsman

Today’s match has so many options to choose from. With RP Singh bowling so well, Hayden may find his bullying approach more difficult. Dhoni is due a big score, and he would be my selection. For Deccan, the first 6 overs provide the best opportunity as Murali will begin his spell in the seventh over. Gibbs is the man for me today.

Featured Market

With such aggressive opening partnerships, backing over 9 runs in the “first Over Runs” market at [3.15] seems a good bet. Hayden alone hit 10 in his last match, and the Deccan openers hit with similar desire.

Mandeep Dhanoa says: Back Chennai Super Kings at [1.83].

They were bottom of the pile last year but a new captain in the form of Adam Gilchrist, experienced heads such as Andrew Symonds and Herschelle Gibbs and plenty of young, energetic Indian talent could well be the surprise package of the tournament, says Scott Ferguson.

The secret of T20 betting is finding value in the outsiders. Last year’s winners were the longshot of the tournament, and this year that mantle is taken by the Deccan Chargers!

Disappointing last season, winning just two of 14 matches after a lacklustre start only got worse, the Chargers are primed to sneak under the radar with their wealth of talent. To dispel the demons of 2008, team management have sacked the bland beige uniforms and brought in a striking new blue combination.

Adam Gilchrist takes over the reins as captain this time around and is far better suited to this game than the dour VVS Laxman, who is threatening not to play over petty politics. No great loss, there’s no room for blockers in this comp. Darren Lehmann takes over as coach and he is one shrewd cookie. This should provide stronger, more decisive leadership with more creative field settings.

If there is one player that T20 cricket was created for, it’s the big-hitting Gilchrist. Free from the strains of a demanding schedule, the well-rested Gilchrist enters the fray fresh in mind and thorough in preparation. Herschelle Gibbs did little in last year’s IPL but on home soil, and on the back of some good form against Australia, he is the key man.

The wise heads of Gilchrist, Symonds, Gibbs, Vaas and Styris form a solid base for the Chargers but remember only four internationals can play at once. Australian all-rounder Ryan Harris sneaks in as uncapped player, exciting local talent Rohit Sharma was one of the finds of last year’s tournament, and RP Singh continues to impress for India. Venugopal Rao and Pragyan Ojha provide good depth, and watch for the explosive batting of DR Teja at the top of the order.

Every IPL franchise will face disruption from international schedules, Deccan’s travellers balance out with Andrew Symonds missing the early games to play for Australia against Pakistan in Dubai, then Fidel Edwards will join the West Indies squad on the tour of England about halfway through. Dwayne Smith has been overlooked in recent matches for the West Indies, so If Aussie Ryan Harris can squeeze into the team, watch out, he is a very handy, albeit relatively unknown all-rounder.

The all-rounder roles in T20 cricket are vital. Sharma, Smith and Styris have been in good touch in the lead-up matches, while Rao, Silva and Teja are others who are more than handy with both bat and ball. Depth of bowling options makes a big difference for Gilchrist – if he has several to choose from, one bowler having an off-day is not disastrous. Slow trundlers who land the ball on the spot play a key role in this form of the game.

South African conditions in April/May are much more suitable for the Deccan seamers. Vaas, Zoysa, RP Singh and Styris will have a mixture of sea breezes and humidity to work their magic in, while the express pace of Fidel Edwards can either be a game-breaker or very expensive. The Chargers don’t have a great deal of depth with the ball, but if their front-line fires, they’ll match it with any side. The problem will lie in getting the team balance right – Gilchrist and Gibbs will almost certainly play each game (at least while Symonds is away), Edwards is only in town for a few games so he’s a lock for those, thus it’s drawing straws for Vaas, Zoysa, Smith, Silva and Harris for that remaining bowling spot. Pragyan Ojha will be the leading spin option.

Some say the lack of domestic stars for Hyderabad is a weakness. Several of their local players coming through the ranks went to the rival ICL competition. But the Chargers have several players on the fringe of playing for India, at a time when the big names are in the twilight of their careers. It’s an ideal time for the fringe players to strut their stuff on the big stage, just before the World Twenty20 tournament. With the import rules restricting selection to only four foreigners per match, it will be up to the local guys to thrust their name in front of the selectors with big performances.

Write off Deccan at your peril, they are the team I’ll be cheering this year.

The two best clay court players in the world battle it out for the 2009 Rome Master Series title this afternoon. Novak Djokovic is the reigning champion and Rafael Nadal is a three time winner in Rome and the greatest player to have ever graced the clay surface. Ben Caudell can’t wait but where is he putting his money?

World number one Rafael Nadal attempts to record a fourth title in Rome as he takes on the defending champion Novak Djokovic in today’s final that kicks off at 15:00 UK time.

Nadal was yesterdays tip to defeat Fernando Gonzalez 2-0 @ [1.26] and by more than 5.5 games @ [1.9]. The Spaniard didn’t disappoint as he recorded a 6-3 6-3 win over the Chilean.

The other semi-final of the day was an intense affair between number two seed Roger Federer and number three seed Novak Djokovic. Djokovic will have the opportunity to defend his Rome Masters crown after recovering from a set and a break down to defeat Federer 4-6 6-3 6-3. Their head-to-head now stands at 7-4 in Federer’s favour.

Today’s Selection

Rafael Nadal (SPA) v Novak Djokovic (SRB)
This is the final that we all predicted, the two best clay court players in the world will battle it out for the 2009 Rome Master Series title, Djokovic the reigning champion vs. Rafael Nadal a three time winner and simply the greatest player to have ever graced the clay surface.

Rafael leads their head-to-heads 12-4 , winning the last three times they have played, two of which were played on clay. Novak Djokovic managed to get a set off the Spanish Bull during their last outing a few weeks ago at the Monte Carlo Masters. Nadal not surprisingly went on to win the tournament, his dominance on the surface is non-comprehendible. Coming into this match the Spaniard has won 29 straight matches on clay (15 in a row this year, 34-1 in sets)

Novak Djokovic will be confident and bullish in the knowledge that he has already managed to win a set off Nadal on clay. He will also be in positive spirits having defeated Roger Federer in the previous round. Nadal will no doubt win this match, the question is will the Serb be able to take another set off him?

Time is running out for Newcastle United and with Liverpool refusing to give up on the title, you’d expect another miserable afternoon for Alan Shearer and co. Not so, says Richard Walker. Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ [2.38].

With Steven Gerrard returning to a near-fully fit squad, there’s no way Newcastle can stop Liverpool at Anfield is there? Logically no – but as I’ve been saying of late, need drives action and right now Alan Shearer’s mob are needy.

And while Rafa Benitez is doing a great job of bluffing everyone – Kopites especially – into thinking the league is his number one priority, it’s not. He knows it, we know it. He’s proved that in previous years. And he knows Man United just aren’t going to slip up often enough for Liverpool to seriously fancy their chances.

He must still be reeling at the fact that this is the only competition left open to them so they’re now a side with nothing to keep back in reserve. But does that increase the pressure on them? I say it does.

So, at what looks to me a ludicrously short [1.29] (when you consider United are around 0.4 bigger at Boro), lay Liverpool without the associated risk of putting yourself out of Betfair business. Of course I’m not saying Liverpool can’t win – I’m trying to find the value plays and that’s my opinion. The Draw is [6.2] to back and I’ll be dabbling there too I should think. Newcastle are [13.5] just to prevail in the Match Odds – how the once-mighty have fallen, eh?

Now as you know, I’m not one too influenced by stats, trends of tradition, however I can reasonably assume that all the pointers here are for a high-scoring encounter. That’s because I feel the [2.38] to back about Under 2.5 goals should not be missed. Granted, Shearer’s side are no defensive diamonds, but they’ll be packing the midfield for this one and – even if beaten – I could well envisage it being only 1-0 or 2-0, with Benitez disrupting play by hauling off his big guns to keep the as fresh as possible for his title tilt.

Shearer has openly targeted the home games as the ones he feels will drive United’s survival bid hardest. And while the disappointing Pompey stalemate will be fresh in the mind, I think it’s fair to assume that he’ll see a point at Anfield as a great effort. Expect caution enough to take advantage of those who’re reckoning on an early home goal by laying the 0-10 minutes period in the First Goal odds to a [3.75] liability.

The Draw (HT) at [2.92] should merit consideration, a much richer price than it normally is to back. The more markets I look at, the clearer a picture I have of what Betfairians think will happen on Sunday lunch-time. Liverpool/Liverpool HT/FT is lower than evens at [1.84] – another lay possibility (?) – though Draw/Liverpool looks to have a bit of meat on the bone at [4.7].

I may be out on a limb here but I’m not devoid of common sense; so stuff like backing the returning Steven Gerrard To Score at [2.2] could be a good move. Fernando Torres is priced at [1.92] in that market – a reflection of both his quality, form and the opposition.

You can’t always put all your eggs in one basket on Betfair. I have in mind a cagey attempt by the Magpies to steal a point on Merseyside. They might not so, like me, whatever your fancy make sure you’re well covered too! Turning a profit’s what it’s all about…we can’t get rich on every game!

Rainbow View is currently trading at [2.2] on Betfair for Sunday’s 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. Her form suggests she fully deserves to be that price. And some respected judges feel she ought to be a fair bit shorter. Racing UK and betmaverick.com analyst Graham Cunningham adds his view to the debate and pinpoints a couple of live classic longshots on day two of a tremendous weekend of racing at Newmarket.

Rainbow the standout form choice if her fiery temperament stands the Classic test

If she keeps her feisty temperament in check she will take a huge amount of beating. That is the general consensus over Rainbow View in the 1000 Guineas and, for all that it’s unoriginal, it’s a view that I agree with.

The weapons she brings to the Rowley Mile are plain for all to see. Her high cruising speed and striking turn of foot overwhelmed the best juvenile fillies around last year and any ratings service you care to look at will give her plenty in hand of her nearest rivals for the Sunday showpiece.

As ever when fillies move into their second season, Rainbow View now needs to show she has progressed over the winter and that her tendency to get worked up before her races isn’t going to become problematic.

But John Gosden doesn’t seem too worried on either score and, given that she is a daughter of the strong American stamina influence Dynaformer, it will come as a major surprise if she doesn’t hold her own physically from two to three.

In short, anyone planning to pile in feeling that she is just too good for this bunch might just find it worthwhile to see how she conducts herself in the preliminaries. But with her main danger Fantasia rerouted to Longchamp there could well be a pot of gold at the end of this Rainbow provided the favourite behaves herself.

* * *

Sleuth and Shimah appeal for those seeking possible Guineas longshots

The market says Serious Attitude is the main danger to Rainbow View, but anyone tempted to go overboard on Rae Guest’s filly would do well to consider what Jimmy Fortune said when asked to compare the two last October.

Fortune, who has never been given to excessively aggressive assessments of his mounts, had just ridden Serious Attitude to maintain her unbeaten record in the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket but had no doubt as to the merits of the pair.

“There is no comparison,” he said. “I think Rainbow View is streets ahead of her and I think she would beat her over any distance.”

If this Fortune teller is right then the main danger to Rainbow View might just emerge from the bigger priced fillies.

And if I have read the tea leaves correctly then Super Sleuth and Shimah could both offer some each way mileage at their current Betfair prices of [40.0] and [24.0] respectively.

Super Sleuth was worn down late by Lahaleeb in the Fred Darling at Newbury, but she travelled like the best horse in the race for a long way and it wouldn’t come as a surprise if that easy cruising speed helps her outrun her odds by a fair margin here.

Irish raider Shimah has crept in under the radar with very little publicity in the build-up, but she’s bred to be a Group 1 filly and showed promise to match on her first two starts last season. She signed off with a fine second in the Moyglare Stakes on soft ground at the Curragh and, with this fast surface likely to suit, her chance of giving Rainbow View a race is much stronger than her current long odds would suggest.

* * *

Willie and Ruby the stars of Punchestown, but what did you make of Master Minded?

A few reflections on Punchestown to finish with this week.

The first point concerns Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh. It’s hard to think a single jockey and trainer have ever dominated a major jumps Festival to such a degree and, with so many stars to look forward to, Ruby will have to show more diplomacy than Henry Kissinger to keep both Mullins and Paul Nicholls happy next winter.

Point two concerns Master Minded. His runaway Champion Chase success in 2008 suggested that he would monopolise the top two mile chases for years to come.

However, he was less impressive at Cheltenham this year and, irrespective of John Francome’s bizarre assertion that it made no difference, it’s clear to anyone with a functioning pair of eyes that Big Zeb threw away a golden chance of flooring the champ with his last fence blunder in the Kerrygold Champion Chase.

Master Minded’s rather laboured win at Punchy brought to mind something Ferdy Murphy said when analysing him recently.

“It was an awesome performance last year, but then you look at the page and he’s a five-year-old and five-year-olds really shouldn’t be doing that,” said Ferdy.

I suspect what he meant was that there can be a price to pay for precocity. Either way, the aura of invincibility surrounding the double M doesn’t look quite so strong as it used to be.

Lastly, what did you think of the late starts at Punchestown? Officials seemed well pleased with their decision to delay the first race until mid afternoon and some people suggested that the same plan might work well for British Festivals.

Initially, I was one of them. But can you imagine the scenes at York or Royal Ascot if the major meetings didn’t get under way until four o’clock?

The local publicans would be rubbing their hands. But I doubt the local coppers would be so chuffed.

Can Bangalore continue their resurgence on one of the world’s best batting surfaces?

Team news

With Kevin Pietersen returned to England and the experiment of Robin Uthappa at keeper consigned to history, Bangalore seem a happier and more balanced outfit. Witness their fine win over King’s Xi. Jacques Kallis and the reinstated Mark Boucher, who always had an uncomfortable relationship with KP, should shine under the leadership of Anil Kumble. Rahul Dravid remains on paternity leave and no-one seems to know when he will be back. “Soon,” said Kumble. For Mumbai, Graham Napier should hold onto his place despite a disappointing effort with the bat on debut against Kolkata.

Venue, pitch conditions

The Wanderers is one of the best batting surfaces in the world and the 320 match runs line could well be busted. West Indies and South Africa shared more than 410 runs in the World Twenty20 opener there. The average first-innings score in the last 12 (Standard Bank and World Twenty20) matches is a whopping 171. The forecast showers dampen the enthusiasm, however, for a chunky match-runs wager.

Match odds

Bangalore and Mumbai have a win apiece on the head-to-heads. The first victory went to Bangalore by five wickets before Mumbai enjoyed revenge in thumping fashion, strolling to a nine-wicket victory. Understandably given the respective records in IPL2 – Bangalore have won three from seven and Mumbai three from six – it is Sachin Tendulkar’s side who are favourites at [1.66]. With the Little Master leading such a powerful batting line-up it is hard to see how Mumbai will be denied in a contest which will be decided by who hits it longest, hardest and most often.

Top batsmen

On such a flat wicket, it is the strokemakers who should come to the fore. Forget the nudges and nurdlers. Men with solid top-bat credentials are Jesse Ryder for Bangalore and Sanatha Jayasuriya for Mumbai. Ryder’s bully-boy style is perfect for such a surface, Jayasuriya made 61 and 88 against New Zealand and Kenya respectively at Jo’burg in the World Twenty20. Of the two, Jayasuriya is the bet because Ryder’s confidence may have slumped after a poor run. The Sri Lankan top-scored against Bangalore in IPL2.

Featured market

In that first match of the World Twenty20 between West Indies and South Africa, there were 18 sixes. Chris Gayle hit 11 of them.

The Rome Master Series has reached the semi final stage with the top three seeds still to drop a set. Not since 1981 have the top three in the world advanced to this stage in Rome. But who does Ben Caudell believe will prevail today?

The first of today’s semi-finals sees Roger Federer take on Novak Djokovic.

Federer has won seven of the last 10 encounters against the Serb however Djokovic won their last match-up with a three set victory in Miami over a month ago.

My predictions yesterday were spot on as Fernando Gonzalez rallied for the second match in a row against qualifier Juan Monaco to win 2-6 6-3 6-4. We managed to back the Chilean at [1.4] to win the match and at [4.0] to win 2-1.

He now faces an almost impossible task against the clay court king Rafael Nadal to reach his first ever Rome final.

Nadal will be gunning for his fourth title in Rome where he and Thomas Muster are the only players to have won three titles in the open era…

Today’s Selections

Rafael Nadal (SPA) v Fernando Gonzalez (CHI)
Rafael leads the series 5-3 in their head-to-heads, not since January 2007 has the Chilean defeated the Spanish Bull, a straight sets quarter-final win at the Australian Open. This match being on clay will represent a more challenging experience for Gonzalez. We are all aware of Nadal’s exploits on the red stuff and with the Spaniard’s own admission that he didn’t play well against fellow compatriot Fernando Verdasco in the previous round, there will be a lot more in the tank for Rafa who is still to drop a set. The outcome of this match is simple to predict – Nadal will win – but the question is by how many games!

With the pressure on, David Moyse ‘Dogs of War’ are exactly the sort of side Sunderland wouldn’t want to be visiting the Stadium of Light on Sunday, says Richard Walker Best Bet:Lay Sunderland @ [2.68].

With only Chelsea left to visit Wearside after Everton this Sunday afternoon, Sunderland manager Ricky Sbragia must recognise this as the best opportunity his side are going to have to record an all-important three points – a victory would take them up to 38 points and, probably, safety, though they’d not say as much.

Bolton and Portsmouth are the Black Cats’ two remaining away games – in consecutive weeks before they end with that visit from the Blues. The pressure is on then; sadly, Everton are just the sort of side you don’t want to be playing when that’s the case. Lay Sunderland to a [2.68] liability is my shout of the day for this one.

They have the energy and the will – but I don’t believe they have the requisite quality to put away a side who’re still pushing hard, just because they always do, let alone the fact they want to go into late May’s FA Cup Final with some real gusto behind them.

You could back Everton at [2.94] or The Draw, a [3.4] chance, but I’m not certain which of these scenarios I fancy so it’s a Lay day for me. You may feel much stronger about one of the Match Odds and, if you do, good luck with your play.

Everton have been hit by the loss of Phil Jagielka, however they’re so used to dealing with injuries that you kind of forget they’re also without Mikel Arteta, Victor Anichebe, Nuno Valente and Yakubu. Sunderland’s two biggest misses are centre-half Nyron Nosworthy and keeper Craig Gordon, although back-up Marton Fulop has performed admirably.

I still think of David Moyes’ side as ‘Dogs of War’ – the title Joe Royle’s mid-90s team picked up for their resoluteness. Those hard-to-beat characteristics are still true today and I expect that to translate into a dearth of goals at The Stadium of Light for this Sky Sports offering. Under 2.5 goals, for the less brave, is there for you to get involved with at [1.69] to back (it’s [2.4] about Overs) but I don’t think you should be shy about grabbing a piece of the [2.96] which is available about an Under 1.5 goals finish.

That goes hand-in-hand with my assertion that the Wearside hosts will find it impossible to penetrate a defence which has only shipped 17 goals away from home this term. A Toffees’ Clean Sheet can – and, for me, should – be supported at [3.25]. It’s [1.39] to back No, which I find strange despite this being Sunderland’s hour of need driving them forward and exposing themselves to counter-attacking possibilites.

Correct Score wise, my eye is drawn to 0-0 at roughly [9.8] and 1-0 to Everton, priced about [9.2]. I certainly think, if you prefer to lay, that scores like 2-1 to Sunderland [13.0] and higher can be offered by you to other Bettors as scorelines which really don’t belong to the type of game this will most probably manifest itself as.

Likely someone with a nose for goal – rather than a more unlikely marksman – will unlock this game, if there is to be at least one goal. My old favourite Tim Cahill is [3.4] To Score with home team strikers Djibril Cisse [2.76] and Kenwyne Jones [2.98] among other choices you might want to think about. As he’s probably certain to start, I’ll be siding with Louis Saha, [3.25] in this list or [8.6] to be First Goalscorer.

Unless Sunderland emerge from their malaise, Saha just might be the scorer of the only goal. Sbragia’s boy can ill-afford this to happen.

Despite a weakened team, Richard Walker believes that Manchester United can succeed where Liverpool failed and take three points from the Riverside. Best Bet: Back 1-0 To Man Utd @ [7.2].

Sir Alex Ferguson would surely have hand-picked opponents such as Middlesbrough for his side to face in the Premier League with the two legs of the Champions League semi-final sandwiching it in.

And the straight-talking Scot has already got stuck into Sky Sports and league officials themselves for scheduling a 12.45pm Saturday lunch-time kick-off on the back of a hugely significant Wednesday night match.

All this really doesn’t matter; Man United will beat a limp Middlesbrough side who, by their nature and actions, have looked the most doomed of all the sides struggling to stay upwards of the dreaded dotted line. Yet I don’t think the Red Devils will hand out a pasting.

In fact, so confident am I about it being 1-0 to the reigning champions that I’ve made it my Best Bet for the match, at odds of reward around [7.2] when backed. Complement that selection, if you will, by backing Under 2.5 goals at [1.94]. Overs is [2.04] but, if Fergie is to be believed, I just can’t see it. He’s talking about resting a good few top names – however I suspect they’ll be on the bench if the job’s not getting done come the hour mark.

And while you’d logically argue Gareth Southgate simply has to send his team out looking for all three points, that won’t stop him taking a very cautious approach. Some sides have enjoyed success getting at Man U this year but, at this stage of the season, even a point from an unlikely source must be cherished.

That’s whay I’m suggesting you lay, at [3.8] to those who have in mind a glut of goals from the Riverside visitors. Okay, you don’t necessarily need an avalanche – since one unanswered in each half is sufficient – however I have a sense that the first-half will produce little more than tactical ennui from Boro and measured approach play from United (perhaps with a little fatigue in the legs to shake off from three days previous).

Neither side have loads of injures, however the loss of Rio Ferdinand for the Red Devils can never be taken lightly. Gary Neville and Owen Hargreaves are also missing while, for the hosts, they need contend without defenders Emanuel Pogatetz and Chris Riggott.

The Match Odds reflect the gap in quality, frankly, with United a little longer to back than the price in my mind’s eye at [1.59]. The Draw at [4.1] and Boro [7.4] make up the market. If your one who must play here, then I actually think [1.59] represents a fair price for a highly probable outcome.

Once again, I reckon it’s dangerous to get too involved in the goalscorer sections before the teams are announced. The likely market leaders might only have bit-part roles to play so how about going for one of the veterans to prosper.

Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes both had bit-part roles in the week and I’d expect them to start. They’re both around the [16.0] to [18.0] mark for First Goalscorer – and around [7.5] To Score at any time – for a game which I could well see settled by one of them holding their nerve in a goalscoring situation. For the hosts, Afonso Alves is rubbish, Marlon King and Tuncay work hard but don’t score many so, if you’re looking for an opposition cover selection, I think you could do far worse than the [10.0] to back about Adam Johnson To Score.

As fellow Betting @ Betfair writer and Boro fan ‘Mystical’ Mike Norman would corroborate, Boro tend to play well when it’s least expected. However for this one, even if they do, I can’t see them repelling the champions.

This afternoon’s market movers from Goodwood, Newmarket, Thirsk, Uttoxeter and Punchestown.

Goodwood

2.20
Mystery Star 5.3 in to 3.9
King Supreme 5.2 in to 4.4
Cupids Glory 7.2 out to 13.0

2.55
Born Tobouggie 3.1 in to 2.64
Eva’s Request 9.8 out to 15.0
Infamous Angel 10.0 out to 16
Cassique Lady 24.0 in to 17.5

3.30
Aye Aye Digby 7.6 in to 5.2
Dazed And Amazed 7.6 in to 6.0

4.05
Reddy To Star 7.2 in to 3.6

4.40
Devil To Pay 6.4 in to 4.8

5.15
Defector 3.85 in to 3.0
Farncombe 2.56 out to 3.8

5.45
Little Pete 7.25 in to 3.8

Newmarket

2.00
Confront 5.3 out to 7.2
King Charles 13.0 in to 11.0
Road To Love 25.0 in to 18.0

2.30
Casual Conquest 2.78 in to 2.3
Bronze Cannon 7.6 out to 10.0
All The Aces 8.0 out to 12.0

3.10
Delegator 5.5 in to 5.0
Mastercraftsman 6.0 out to 8.2
Evasive 9.6 out to 12.5
Gan Amhras 17.0 in to 11.5

3.45
Amour Propre 5.2 out to 7.0
Chief Editor 5.7 out to 8.0
Strike The Deal 12.0 in to 9.2

4.20
Infiraad 2.72 in to 2.32
Calligrapher 3.9 out to 5.5

4.55
Spring Of Fame 2.4 out to 3.4

5.30
Photographic 4.4 in to 3.6
Good Again 4.4 out to 5.8

Thirsk

1.55
Here Now And Why 1.63 in to 1.43
Vilnius 5.8 out to 11.0

2.25
Lasso The Moon 2.24 out to 2.72

3.05
Hustle 6.0 in to 4.6
I Confess 17.0 in to 11.0

3.40
Ishe Mac 7.4 out to 11.0

4.15
Ansell’s Pride 12.5 in to 7.5
Charlie Tipple 7.6 out to 14.0

4.50
Mambo Spirit 14.5 in to 8.4

5.20
Paddy Bear 5.6 in to 4.4

Uttoxeter

1.40
Dream Sweeney 1.88 out to 2.36
Outlaw Tom 8.2 in to 6.4

2.45
Rio De Janeiro 3.3 out to 4.2
Federstar 13.0 in to 9.8

3.20
Prince Taime 4.5 out to 5.7

3.55
Exmoor Ranger 7.6 in to 6.2
Gypsy George 15.5 in to 11.5

5.00
Molanna View 18.0 in to 7.6

Punchestown

1.10
Wedger Paddy 7.6 in to 5.2

1.45
Serpentaria 1.96 out to 2.42

2.20
Agus A Vic 4.5 in to 3.35

2.55
Mourad 1.65 out to 1.92
Jumbo Rio 5.8 in to 4.6

Get the low down on the feel good Derby story of 2009…

Tom McCarthy’s Derby dream is still alive with General Quarters trading at [23.0] for a victory which would provide a perfect ending to a remarkable story.

Seventy-five-year-old ex-school teacher and cancer survivor McCarthy, who has only this horse in training, regretted not buying General Quarters in the sales ring but got another chance when claiming him at Churchill Downs for only $20k. He has since won the Blue Grass at Keenland.

If he wins tonight there won’t be a dry eye in the house.

Carl Harris tips a horse that ticks all the right boxes and makes his pick for the first classic of the season...

Jamie Spencer has a very big day ahead of him at Newmarket and can get off to a good start by landing the Suffolk Stakes Handicap aboard Flipando (2.00), for the on fire David Barron stable.

When the win market opened last night Flipando was put in at [10.0], which looks an exceptional price but, sadly, I fear, too generous. Flipando has formed a fruitful partnership with Spencer, coming here after a good third place in The Lincoln, on ground similar to today. A five pounds rise in the weights will be unlikely to stop him but he will have to get past Confront, trained by Sir Michael Stoute with Ryan Moore aboard.

Confront was a decent two-year-old and was a hot favourite for last year’s Greenham Stakes and the fact that these connections are keeping the four-year-old in training is significant. Fliapando is in form, ticks all the right boxes and is definitely one to get on in both the win and place market. I expect Flipando to be very well supported and advise taking the early prices.

After months of anticipation we finally arrive at the 2000 Guineas, the first classic of the season which promises to be just that, a classic! I backed Delegator (3.10) at 8-1 prior to The Craven Stakes, which was won impressively. I have laid back my initial stake and have a very nice free bet on Brian Meehan’s colt. Rip Van Winkle is likely to start favourite following sustained support but I was taken with what I saw in The Craven Stakes.

The time and the style of that win, in my eyes, was that of a 2000 Guineas Winner. A lethal turn of foot is the key attribute required to win a Guineas. Jamie Spencer will surely ride him closer to the pace as Jonny Murtagh will certainly look to get first run, as he did successfully 12 months ago on Henrythenavigator.

Delegator may not be an original choice, but in my defence he was my Ante-Post selection and I know there are many Racing Diary readers holding much bigger prices than are available today.

I would love to see Borderlescott (3.45) win the Palace House Stakes for Robin Bastiman who has shown what a good trainer he is with this high class sprinter, returning to Newmarket following his Group 1 Nunthorpe victory. This horse has won me a few quid and I will be on again today in what looks a very competitive race!

Read more from Carl Harris daily at www.racingdiary.co.uk.

The XY Factor heads to Newmarket for Saturday’s bet…..

Date: Saturday 2 May

Selected Race: Newmarket 4.20

Suggested Bets (with current Betfair win odds):
5 point win INFIRAAD [2.36]

Staking Plan Records (on £1 per point basis):
Yesterday: -4.00
This week: +70.00
All time: +91.58

VERDICT:
Safari Journey got as far as the first before unseating his rider last night. Moving swiftly on to Saturday and INFIRAAD can give Barry Hills another Newmarket success in the 7f handicap at 4.20. He has the least experiencein the field but judged by his course and distance success last time out has plenty of potential for further improvement and is a confident selection.

Nick Shiambouros reports on a great performance at Churchill Downs and looks ahead to tonight’s Kentucky Derby….

Last night I witnessed one of the greatest performances I have ever seen in a classic when Rachel Alexander won the Kentucky Oaks on the bridle by over 20 lengths Amazingly with the defection of Justwhistledixie she was available at [1.4] on Betfair as she sauntered home.

In the Kentucky Derby tonight there has been sustained money for Friesan Fire at [6.8] but I Want Revenge is still the Betfair favourite at [4.5].

Surprisingly, Desert Party has come in to [17.5].

As expected Quality Road has been scratched.

All the latest news on the going from today’s racing…

Racecourse: Goodwood
First Race Time: 2.20pm
Going: Good, Good to Firm in Places
Other Information: Slight shower overnight. A dry & sunny day is forecast
Going Stick 8.6

Racecourse: Newmarket
First Race Time: 2.00pm
Going: Good to Firm (watered)
Other Information: Dry overnight. A dry & sunny day is forecast

Racecourse: Thirsk
First Race Time: 1.55pm
Going: Good to Firm
Other Information: Dry overnight

Racecourse: Uttoxeter
First Race Time: 1.40pm
Going Chase: Good to Soft, Soft in Places
Hurdle: Good, Good to Soft in Places
Other Information: 0.5 mm of rain yesterday evening. Dry & sunny day is forecast

Racecourse: Doncaster
First Race Time: 5.40pm
Going: Good, Good to Firm in Places
Other Information: 0.5mm of rain overnight

Racecourse: Hexham
First Race Time: 5.55pm
Going: Good
Other Information: Dry overnight

Deal or no deal? For Nick Shiambouros the answers is an emphatic ‘yes.’

Today’s 80/20 is Strike The Deal in the 3.45 at Newmarket. This talented sprinter has been cracking heads with some pretty smart horses last year and ended the season with a good fifth to King’s Apostle at Ascot. I think this race should suit him down to the ground and he should run well. At present he is trading at [9.4] on the exchange.