This evening’s market movers from Bangor and Fontwell…

Bangor

5.55
My Condor 3.4 out to 4.2
Wages 25.0 in to 16.0

6.25
Thumbs Up 2.12 out to 2.72
Kack Handed 5.5 in to 3.95
Rouge Et Blanc 13.0 in to 9.6
Dona 13.0 in to 8.2

6.55
Folie A Deux 3.85 in to 2.8

7.25
Bronzesmith 16.0 in to 11.0

7.55
Worship The Stars 3.72 in to 2.74
Thirtytwo Red 8.2 in to 6.6

8.25
Good Spirit 13.5 in to 8.8
Like A Duke 17.5 in to 14.0
Viscount Rossini 9.6 out to 23.0

Fontwell

5.40
Benhego 3.55 in to 2.56
Kotkimix 3.5 out to 5.6
Stage Acclaim 6.4 out to 8.2

6.40
Heir To Be 2.2 out to 3.0
Isle De Maurice 3.9 in to 3.45

7.10
Mr Big 4.2 out to 5.0
Sesame Rambler 12.5 in to 9.4
Sandymac 17.0 in to 9.6
Free Gift 8.4 out to 13.5
I Hear Thunder 9.0 out to 12.5

7.40
Touch Of Fate 8.2 in to 7.0

8.10
Cavallini 2.82 in to 1.98

Henrythenavigator addeed his name to a glorious roll-call of winners last year, Malcolm Pannett identifies some of the other notable victors and runners in the 200 year history of the Newmarket classic.

The 2000 Guineas is one of the most pre-eminent races of the flat season. It is currently the first Classic of the season to be run and also the first leg of the colts’ Triple Crown. Accordingly the roll of honour is littered with the legends of the turf.

Inaugurated by the Jockey Club in 1809, under the aegis of Sir Charles Bunbury, the name reflects the original guaranteed prize money on offer. That purse didn’t go far from its source as the first winner Wizard, ridden by Bill Clift, was owned by Christopher Wilson a senior member of the Jockey Club.

Bunbury himself owned the 1813-winner Smolensko who became the first of 34 horses to go on to win the Derby, the most recent being Nashwan in 1989. Of those 15 also won the St Leger to gain the Triple Crown starting with West Australian (1853) trained by John Scott who is the winning most handler with seven winners of the 2000 Guineas between 1842 and 1862.

The others to complete the Triple Crown, named after King Lear’s head attire, are Gladiateur (1865), Lord Lyon (1866), Ormonde (1886), Common (1891), Isinglass (1893), Galtee More (1897), Flying Fox (1899), Diamond Jubilee (1900), Rock Sand (1903), Pommern (1915), Gay Crusader (1917), Gainsborough (1918), Bahram (1935) and Nijinsky (1970).

The emphasis of modern breeding on speed over stamina makes it unlikely that the list will increase.

Newmarket-based Jem Robinson holds the record for riding most winners with nine 2000 Guineas successes on his home track between 1825 and 1848. While Sue Magnier has co-owned six winners of the race in the past 12 years, including last year’s 200th anniversary-winner Henrythenavigator, beating the previous shared record of the 4th Duke of Grafton and 5th Earl of Jersey who owned five each outright.

Three winners have been owned by reigning monarchs; Edward VII’s Minoru (see below), George VI’s Big Game (1942) and the Queen’s Pall Mall (1958).

In 1980 Nureyev, who was named after the famous Russian dancer, was faced with a wall of horses blocking his passage. Instead of going around Philippe Paquet decided on the direct route and barged his way through. Nureyev won by a head but was disqualified and placed last by the stewards with Known Fact inheriting the victory.

Other notable winners include Sir Tatton Sykes (1846), who missed out on the Triple crown as in the Derby his rider was drunk; Sceptre (1902), the over-raced winner of four Classics; Brigadier Gerard (1971), joint-second highest rated horse by Timeform who beat Mill Reef and My Swallow in a memorable renewal; Dancing Brave (1986), subsequent Arc-winner; Zafonic (1993), European Champion Two-Year-Old and the enigmatic ‘gorgeous’ George Washington (2006).

Only two runners competed in 1829 and 1830, Rockavon boasts the longest starting price when he sprung a 66-1 surprise in 1961 while Moslem and Formosa dead-heated in 1868.

100 years ago – Victory for the King with Minoru who obliged at 4-1 with favourite Bayardo only fourth. The son of Ascot Gold Cup-winner Cyllene added to Edward VII’s Classic haul by taking The Derby as well. However he failed in the St Leger and was therefore unable to emulate Diamond Jubilee who had won the Triple Crown nine years before when his owner was Prince of Wales.

25 years ago – An exceptional renewal saw El Gran Senor assert his authority over a quality field including Chief Singer, Lear Fan, Rainbow Quest, Keen and the French-trained Bountiful. Vincent O’Brien’s son of Northern Dancer took up the running from the pace-setting Lear Fan just before the furlong pole and had two and half lengths to spare over Chief Singer at the line.

10 years ago – A win for Frankie Dettori on 10-1shot Island Sands who led the far side group throughout. The son of Turtle Island had to pull out all the stops to hold Enrique who had been momentarily stopped in his run three furlongs out but ran on bravely to get to within a neck with Mujahid third. Island Sands disappointed in the Irish version then finished second a couple of times in France before picking up a consolation win in a conditions stakes at Haydock two years later.

Five years ago – With the stalls positioned in the centre of the course the field sub-divided into many groups and were spread out all over Newmarket. Haafhd slipstreamed Golden Sahara, a pacemaker for Snow Ridge, moving to the lead at the two furlong marker. The son of Alhaarth, who ended his season with victory in the Champion Stakes, saw out the trip well eventually repelling runner-up Snow Ridge by a length and three quarters. Azamour and Grey Swallow followed them home while favourite One Cool Cat failed to fire managing to beat only one of the 14-strong field.

Last Year – A classic finish to celebrate the Classic’s 200th birthday as Henrythenavigator joined New Approach at the furlong pole. The son of Kingmambo got his head in front but the subsequent Derby-winner wouldn’t give in and the pair battled all the way to the line with Johnny Murtagh’s mount just prevailing by a nose with four lengths back to Stubbs Art in third. Henrythenavigator added the Irish version and the St James’s Palace Stakes and ended his career finishing second to Raven’s Pass in both the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Classic.

The XY Factor heads to Bangor for Friday’s bet…..

Date: Friday 1 May

Selected Race: Bangor 8.25

Suggested Bets (with current Betfair win odds):
4 point win SAFARI JOURNEY [3.2]

Staking Plan Records (on £1 per point basis):
Yesterday: -4.00
This week: +74.00
All time: +95.58

VERDICT:
After the boom came the bust yesterday with Ithbaat never really looking like getting the better of Henry Cecil’s Hyades. Safari Journey wasn’t over impressive when landing the odds at Newton Abbot last time out but might be capable of a little further improvement and defying his penalty.

With Infamous Angel’s stamina in doubt and Eva’s Request possibly not at her peak after a stint in Dubai, this may revolve around the trio that dominated a similar event at Kempton 3 weeks ago. Born Tobouggie won decisively that day but incurs a penalty and might find Perfect Star and Scuffle tougher propositions now…

Born Tobouggie improved through 2008 and again when winning a listed race at Kempton on her return, from Perfect Star and Scuffle, making most. Another bold showing is on the cards despite a 3-lb penalty.

Eva’s Request has every chance on her best form, notably when winning an Ascot handicap last September, but she was well held in two starts in Dubai in February and on her return to this country in the Lincoln.

Cassique Lady is a thrice-raced filly who won her first two starts for Tommy Stack in Ireland last summer (sold 65,000gns at December Sales). She needs to improve and it is doubtful that the drop in trip will help.

Perfect Star is a lightly-raced mare, seen only three times in 2008 but she did win a handicap at Ascot in August. A mile seems her best trip, and she should get closer to Born Tobouggie than on her polytrack debut recently.

Scuffle completed a hat-trick last summer, shaping as though up to making her mark in this company. She was behind Born Tobouggie and Perfect Star on her return when her stable were quiet but should be straighter now.

Infamous Angel was a useful juvenile, when landing the Group 2 Lowther Stakes in August. She was well adrift on softer going at Newbury a fortnight ago on her return and she has her stamina to prove at this trip.

Lady Francesca was highly tried as a two-year-old and showed what she can do when a short-head second in an Epsom maiden on her reappearance ten days ago. That form still falls some way short of what will be required here, though.

Sawab showed promise when placed in a couple of all-weather maidens in April, but needs to raise her game considerably to get off the mark in this much classier contest.

Geoffrey Riddle caught up with the Manton handler ahead of Delegator’s run in the 2,000 Guineas.

On Thursday April 9 the odds about Delegator winning Saturday’s 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket were slashed by high street bookmakers and Betfair traders alike. The Dansili colt had just put in a sparkling display on the Manton gallops for his trainer, Brian Meehan, and Victor Chandler for one were so impressed that they went 8-1 from 25-1.

“It really was a beautiful bit of work,” Meehan said afterwards.

“And we are very confident about his prospects in the 2,000 Guineas.”

Delegator went on to hose up in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket a week later, a performance that now sees him trade at [5.3] on Betfair for the first Classic of the season. You would love to be one of the lucky few who got on at prices in excess of [100.0] on Betfair. There are many who felt that the Craven was an inadequate test for a potential Guineas candidate, and the fact that runner-up Sans Frontiers was rated just 76, supports that view.

But Meehan is not worried about the form students who think that way, and he remains keen on his colt’s chances on the Rowley Mile.

“The horse has done everything that has been asked of him and he has done it at all the right places. He’s in good shape and he must have a great chance,” he told betting.betfair.

The colt’s finishing burst in the Craven was the most eye-catching aspect of that display, especially when you think back to last season’s Dewhurst, when he struggled markedly up the hill to finish fifth behind Intense Focus.

“He was a little green going up the hill in the Dewhurst,” continued Meehan.

“But he strengthened up over the winter. The Craven was a furlong further and he won that well.”

When asked to name the attributes that mark Delegator out as a colt of outstanding potential, Meehan had no hesitation. He said: “I would say his strength and temperament are his best assets. He’s a very strong, powerful colt.”

Delegator had a breeze over five furlongs on Thursday and a canter on Friday (today) that should have him spot on to tackle the challenge of his 16 other rivals. Delegator has been drawn 15, and that puts him slap bang next to Pure Poetry [130.0] and Gan Amhras [15.5]. Along with Ouqba [23.0], in stall 17, all three have the potential to act as pace-setters or pressers.

It also means that Mastercraftsman [6.8] is close at hand, and jockey Jamie Spencer will be keen to keep an eye on the movements of Pat Smullen aboard the Aidan O’Brien runner.

Spencer is a jockey who has the ability to polarise punters’ opinion, and there are many who feel that he leaves things just a little late. Meehan stressed, however, that Spencer was free to ride the race how he wanted.

“I don’t really give Jamie any instructions on how to ride Delegator. He’s ridden him twice and rides him a lot at home.”

Although Newmarket received rain on Monday, it has been dry since then, with clerk of the course Michael Prosser feeling the need to water on Wednesday, as well as on Friday.

Meehan will walk the course on Saturday morning and if the going is anything like it was in the Craven, Delegator will take his chance. The Irishman warned, however: “If it is any quicker than it was in the Craven, we’ll have to make an important decision. He’s in the Irish 2,000 Guineas.”

Whatever happens in tomorrow’s race, Meehan still has big ambitions for the other potential star that is stabled at Manton. Crowded House is being readied for a crack at the Dante Stakes at York in just under a fortnight’s time, en route to the big one at Epsom.

Like the detractors of Delegator, Meehan is quite happy to fob off any critics of his Derby prospect. There has been some suggestion that although Crowded House is by Arc winner Rainbow Quest, the influence of the miler Woodman on the dam’s side indicates that he may not stay Epsom’s 12 furlongs.

“I don’t really have an issue with him getting the trip,” Meehan continued.

“I think a Woodman mare is a bonus anyway, because Rainbow Quest was very strong over a mile and a half. I think that makes Crowded House the perfect horse. He’s got the perfect blend of speed and stamina.”

Of Meehan’s other horses in action this weekend, he is sweet on the chances of Exclamation in the 3.50 on Sunday. The four-year-old was gelded last year, and finished a creditable fourth to Tax Free on his reappearance in the Abernat Stakes. As the handicapper left well alone afterwards, Meehan sees the Heritage handicap as an ideal opportunity to test whether Exclamation’s Golden Jubilee entry is a serious one.

May is generally an important month for the development of two-year-olds, and although the Johannesburg colt Radiohead runs on Sunday, the Irishman nominated the Zafeen filly Secret Queen as the one to note down over the next few weeks.

It’s worth a lot more than 2000 and they don’t pay out in Guineas. Still, the first Saturday in May holds iconic status for Flat followers and Guineas weekend at Newmarket gets off to a flyer this Saturday when Delegator, Rip Van Winkle and company take centre stage on a stellar card. Racing UK and betmaverick.com analyst Graham Cunningham casts his eye over all the main 2000 Guineas contenders.

If you are having a bet on this Saturday’s 2000 Guineas then you are guessing. You may think you have an edge – and time may show that you do have an edge – but this is a Classic with so many imponderables that guesswork has to be a factor.

But there is guesswork and then there is educated guesswork. And, for what it’s worth, here are my educated guesses on all the main contenders for the first Classic of the season.

Delegator: I wish I had a tenner for every time some media pundit had said “he didn’t beat much in the Craven” over the last two weeks. The first point to make is that Delegator beat a field of largely unknown quantities there. And the second is that he treated them like selling platers with a sustained burst of acceleration that suggests he is a different horse than the one who finished fifth in last year’s Dewhurst. Other critics have wondered whether Jamie will find trouble on him. Don’t hold your breath for that. But do expect him to play a very significant role in the finish.

Rip Van Winkle: The literary Rip fell asleep for 20 years. His equine namesake dozed for only half a second in the Dewhurst, but it left him in a very poor spot and he did extremely well to finish so close considering Johnny Murtagh seemed to accept it wasn’t his day a fair way out. Two setbacks in his prep are plainly a concern – and O’Brien has hardly been shooting lights out this spring – but Murtagh has kept faith and I have always felt this colt has the makings of a high-class miler.

Mastercraftsman: Took a big walk in the Betfair market a couple of weeks ago but heads to HQ as a proven Group 1 performer based on his gutsy National Stakes success in the mud. However, I was a shade disappointed with his paddock appearance and his performance at Longchamp on his final start last year. Murtagh has deserted him, which is another negative, and he could be vulnerable to improvers.

Evasive: Some punters can’t resist a Stoute-trained improver in the Guineas, but for every King’s Best and Golan who delivers the goods there is a Perfect Stride or an Adagio who fails to fire. On the face of it Evasive has plenty to do just to hit the frame given that his official rating is just 108, but there was something about the way he put his Horris Hill rivals to bed that was very seductive. He’s another whose preparation hasn’t been trouble free, but I certainly won’t be laying him win or place.

Sea The Stars: Represents the excellent John Oxx ahead of the exciting Arazan, which warrants respect in itself. But is he really quick enough to win a Guineas on fast ground? If he does he will have departed from his pedigree – as he’s related to the mighty Galileo and Black Sam Bellamy – and he looked a galloper rather than a quickener when winning the Beresfor in a bunch finish. Do be surprised if he shows a striking turn of foot to beat this lot. Don’t be surprised if his Derby odds come tumbling down if he runs on to claim a share of the minor money.

Cityscape: Probably best to keep this one fairly brief. In short. I suspect he’s up against it at this level. Granted, he is progressive and his trainer Roger Charlton is adamant that he will improve for his reappearance when second in the Greenham at Newbury. However, he didn’t travel through the race like a Guineas winner to my eye. Put it this way, I’ll be poorer if he wins. Come to think of it, I’ll probably be poorer if he finishes placed, too.

Lord Shanakill: It’s not unusual for certain media people to looks back on a big race result and tell us “that winner was a big price with hindsight.” And that is just the sort of thing they will say if this likeable longshot springs a surprise. Karl Burke’s colt thrived last autumn, battling on heroically to finish second in the Dewhurst, and although he’s by a sprinter he shapes as if he might just stay a mile. If he does then he’s liable to run a good bit better than his current Betfair price of 20 plus suggests.

Finjaan: Extend the Lord Shanakill logic and you could argue that Finjaan represents even better value at [30.0] plus. After all he was only a nose behind the Lord in a three -way photo with Intense Focus, but the fact that Marcus Tregoning’s colt can be backed at such long odds indicates the layers feel he was flattered last October and I tend to agree with them. To my mind, Finjaan had the run of things in grabbing the stand rail on a pace favouring track in the Dewhurst. We might be saying “that was a big price” after the race. But I don’t think he’ll stay theis stiff mile well enough to hit the frame.

Gan Amhras: Jovial Jim Bolger has surprised the vast majority of punters again by declaring this colt rather than his Dewhurst hero Intense Focus. And the money has come for Gan Amhras as a result, but this son of Galileo has plenty to find the way I read the form book and a repeat of his battling second in a bunched finish to a big Sales race at the Curragh just won’t be good enough. Opposing Bolger can be very risky, but four words come to mind for this colt. Tempting place lay candidate.

* * *

Odd verdicts suggest one law for the rich and another for the poor

Two very questionable pieces of stewarding caught the eye this week.

One of them involved a relatively little known trainer and a journeyman jockey who combined to run a longshot in a northern maiden.

The other involved a leading southern trainer and an upcoming rider who joined forces in a handicap in the south.

The horse in the northern maiden was beaten almost 25 lengths having been chopped for room as the leaders got away from him, while the horse in the southern handicap took a walk in the market and was beaten four and a half lengths having been dropped out in rear then switched inside behind rivals at a crucial point in the home straight.

Lo and behold, the unfashionable connections were jumped on with fines and bans for failing to obtain the best possible placing, while the high profile outfit had no case to answer after the stewards finished their deliberations.

I have no vested interest in either camp, but setting one decision against the other leaves a very nasty taste while doing nothing to allay fears that some BHA officials are happy to pick soft targets while soft pedalling with more established figures.

In short, as Private Eye editor Ian Hislop once said: “If that’s justice, I’m a banana.”

Andrew French makes his picks as nine months of football comes down to one afternoon to decide an automatic promotion place, who will contest the play-offs and the remaining relegation spot. Best Bet: Back Sheffield Utd to beat C Palace at [1.67].

As far as I’m concerned, you’ve got to follow those teams whose fate will be sealed by the final set of fixtures. Okay, I accept that nerves and the need to succeed will have a bearing, but give me a team with a whole season’s hopes to play for against a side that would have every reason to be thinking about clearing their lockers for the holiday season.

So, in that spirit, I am making Sheffield United my bet of the day. The Blades have come with a tremendous late surge that has thrust them into the automatic promotion battle – six wins in eight games at just the right time. What’s also key is that they are not letting goals in, having conceded just one in their last four outings.

If they win at Crystal Palace, and Birmingham fail to beat Reading, the Blades go up. And they couldn’t run into better opposition than Palace when their need is so great. The Eagles have won just once in eight and have looked distinctly mid-table for a while now.

Palace may have home advantage, but with ten wins on the road this season United have shown that they are hardy travellers. They have won recently at Reading and Cardiff and they will be roared on by a set of fans as noisy as any in the Championship – expect plenty of choruses of the ‘Greasy Chip Butty’ song in the away section.

Of course the other element to factor in is that Palace manager Neil Warnock is an ex-United manager and a Blades fan – as well as being someone who is be delighted to wreck a party when it’s least expected. But even with the Warnock factor considered, I still feel this is an occasion when the Blades will step up to the plate.

So, I am backing United at [1.67] – whether that will be good enough to earn them that second automatic spot is something I can’t call. I think the Reading/Birmingham game is the hardest of the closing-day fixtures to read and one that I will be leaving well alone.

At the other end of the table, I think the Canaries of Norwich will be sick as the proverbial parrots come Sunday night. They still have a chance of avoiding the drop, but losing at home to Reading on Monday has taken their fate out of their hands – and as it is, I think basement boys Charlton will deprive them of the win they need anyway.

The East Anglian outfit looked like a side doomed in Monday’s live game – and with only one away since mid-November, it would be asking a lot of them to win, without the do-or-die element of the day’s game. Allied to that, Charlton have suddenly found a bit of grit, albeit far too late, and their defeat at Derby last weekend was the first in six games. Therefore, the advice is to lay Norwich at [2.12].

Just to confirm my feelings that Norwich are doomed to the drop, I’m also going to back the draw in the only game that could save them: Plymouth v Barnsley.

The Canaries’ defeat on Monday ended Argyle’s relegation fears, and a point at Home Park will be good enough to keep Barnsley up as well. Drawing games has become an art for the Tykes in recent weeks: they have taken a point from four of their last five games.

Sometimes not needing to win can leave a team in no man’s land when it comes to deciding their approach, but I can foresee a pretty tepid affair with the home side having nothing to play for, and the away side needing merely to avoid losing. Therefore, it’s the draw for me at [3.15].

A thrilling climax looms in Scotland’s top league with so much riding on this weekend’s games.

It’s crunch time in the SPL and time to separate the men from the boys. Every team has played 33 games and every one, Motherwell aside, has found their level. With five matches remaining only one point separates Celtic ([1.71] for the title) and Rangers ([2.36]).

As well as one last showdown at Ibrox next week, the Glasgow duo face four other meetings against the rest of the sides who make up the top six and it makes for a thrilling climax.

Setanta Sports are covering every kick of the title race this weekend. The cameras will be at Ibrox on Sunday where Hearts visit for a third time this season but Celtic have the chance to set the bench mark on Saturday by grabbing three points from their lunch time kick-off in the Granite City.

Celtic generally have an excellent recent record at Pitoddrie. They lost here in January and needed a late equaliser to force a Scottish Cup replay last March, but in the six meetings prior, going back to December 2005, they pulled in a massive 16 points. Rangers, in comparison, have only managed one victory here in there last eight visits.

Gordon Strachan’s men look well placed to get back to winning ways at this ground as Aberdeen are a bit thin on the ground. The Dons are unbeaten in their 11 home games but they go into this one without Zander Diamond, Derek Young and Jamie Smith not to mention first-choice strike duo Darren Mackie and Lee Miller. Mark Kerr returns but it looks a tall order for the remainder of the squad to keep that unbeaten run going.

Everything points to Celtic on this one. The stats suggest that, at [1.67] in the Match Odds, they should be opposed perhaps but the circumstances dictate otherwise on this occasion. Aberdeen virtually always score in this fixture however so that also draws the attention to Over 2.5 goals at [1.93].

Rangers threw away two points in their last Ibrox meeting with Hearts just six weeks ago. Walter Smith’s men were 2-0 up and cruising after 45 minutes and Novo should have made it three shortly after the break. He struck the post however and Hearts went on to snatch a point with two goals in three minutes.

Kyle Lafferty was exceptional that day and scored the opener before being stretchered off on 35 minutes after an attempted quick turn in the area. He hasn’t featured since but is available for selection once again and returns to the squad along with Sasa Papac, Lee McCulloch and Pedro Mendes whose knock sustained against St Mirren isn’t as bad as first feared.

Last Saturday’s Scottish Cup semi-final victory signalled five consecutive wins for Rangers and matches their best run this season, first chalked in September. The Hearts game was the last time Rangers dropped anything, it was a sore one at the time and if the players have anything about them they have a score to settle.

As expected, the home side are strong favourites in the Match Odds at [1.42]. Hearts have decent players, particularly Aguir who could make the grade in Glasgow, but Rangers should have enough about them to see the game through this time. They are scoring freely, hitting the net 12 times in that run of five straight wins, and on this basis both Over 2.5 goals and Rangers HT/FT are worth backing at [1.9] and [2.16] respectively.

In essence, the final Old Firm game of the season kicks off this weekend. Both sides will have an edge to them, the players selected want to be involved at Ibrox next week and you find, more often then not, that both sides take the three points ahead of such crucial meetings. They both face tough opposition but the Rangers/Celtic multiple is worth backing this weekend at [2.2].

It would be doing the rest of the division a disservice if the almighty tussle for survival that we are about to witness didn’t get a mention. Here, only six points separate bottom club Falkirk ([1.36]), Inverness ([4.6]), St Mirren ([11.5]), Hamilton ([12.5]) and eighth-placed Kilmarnock ([13.0]). The unique nature of the SPL finale means they have all still to play each other so anything can happen and Falkirk could prove a good lay at this stage.

The Bairns face Motherwell this weekend so that’s at least two of their relegation rivals who won’t take three points and a win could kick-start the great escape. John Hughes’ side made it through to the Scottish Cup Final last weekend and the win should breed confidence in a side that looks to have turned the corner after taking four points from the last two home games.

You can talk all you want about Mark McGhee being a tough personality, demanding a strong finish from his side and building for next season, but the fact is Motherwell have nothing to play for. A home win at [2.48] throws the relegation fight wide open but the safe bet appears to be to lay Motherwell at [2.94].

A West London derby, Hughes and Campbell face their old clubs and Spurs look to get back on track after their trauma at Old Trafford – Mike Norman assesses Saturday’s 3 o’clock kick-offs. Best Bet: Back Arsenal to beat Portsmouth @ [2.4].

Chelsea [1.58] v Fulham [8.4]; The Draw [3.95]

Regardless of whether Chelsea accept that the Premier League title has gone, I’d still expect them to field a relatively strong side against West London rivals Fulham. The Cottagers haven’t won at Stamford Bridge for nearly 30 years, and I don’t expect that stat to change today.

For two teams that have been strong defensively this season, the [1.86] about Under 2.5 Goals seems a fair price, but recent history suggests Over 2.5 Goals (available to back at [2.12] is the way to play. The last 10 Premier League games between these two sides have averaged 3.1 goals per game, whilst the last five at Stamford Bridge have averaged 3.2 per game.

Man City [2.02] v Blackburn [4.3]; The Draw [3.55]

I was in Benidorm last weekend, which is just as well as it must have snowed in England when Manchester City finally recorded just their second away win in the Premier League. City are very strong at home however, and I can’t seem them losing to a Blackburn side that are without David Dunn, Roque Santa Cruz and Jason Roberts.

With Blackburn’s attacking prowess significantly reduced, I like the look of the Yes option to a Man City Clean Sheet – available to back at [2.94]. Correct Scores of 2-0 [11.5] and 3-0 [21.0] to City are also worth an interest at rewarding odds.

Portsmouth [3.4] v Arsenal [2.4]; The Draw [3.35]

Expect wholesale changes in the Arsenal team ahead of their return fixture with Manchester United in the Champions League. But whatever team Arsene Wenger puts out (and it will almost certainly include the brilliant Andrei Arshavin) I think the expectation on Portsmouth to win will be too much and the [2.4] about a Gunners victory is too good to miss.

The fact that Pompey haven’t beaten Arsenal for over half a century adds further confidence to an away victory, as does Pompey’s record against the top four clubs this season – played seven, lost seven (home and away).

Recommended bets therefore are Arsenal/Arsenal [4.1] in the Half Time/Full Time market, and Arshavin to be the First Goalscorer (will be available to back at around the [9.0] mark once the market matures) and To Score at anytime [3.2].

Stoke [2.42] v West Ham [3.35]; The Draw [3.35]

I fancy Stoke to win this one. They have an impressive home record, are expected to name James Beattie in the starting line-up (having missed the defeat to Fulham) and will probably play with a lot less pressure now that their Premier League status is almost certainly secured.

As I’ve pointed out before though, The Potters don’t score many (only once this season have they scored three in a game) so Correct Scores of 1-0 ([8.0]) and 2-0 ([13.0]) are probably the safest ways to play. Under 2.5 Goals is just [1.72] to back, but is a far more likely outcome than Over 2.5 Goals (available to back at [2.34]) in my opinion.

Tottenham [1.49] v West Brom [8.4]; The Draw [4.5]

It’s not much more than a hunch, but I fancy Spurs to slip up here. Whether it’s by drawing or losing I’m not so sure, so a lay on Tottenham at [1.51] is my advice. I just feel West Brom have accepted they are going down, and now that they have – as last week’s win over Sunderland showed – the pressure is off and individual performances have improved.

I can see the Baggies soaking up a lot of pressure and looking to hit Tottenham on the break. At big odds, Draw/Draw ([7.4]) and Draw/West Brom ([20.0]) in the Half Time/Full Time market, and 0-0 ([16.0]) and 0-1 ([27.0]) in the Correct Score market are worth considering to split stakes. I could be completely wrong of course, but this game is all about opinions and taking a chance from time to time.

Wigan [2.18] v Bolton [4.0]; The Draw [3.35]

This game goes down as the day’s biggest dead rubber, and one that I have very little interest in. Granted, both teams might not treat it as such and until they are mathematically safe will probably go all out for victory. But even then, I couldn’t call the result.

The Draw is the obvious selection then at [3.35], but try a few Correct Score bets on 1-1 and 2-2 – available to back at [7.2] and [19.5] respectively. Egyptian compatriots Mido and Amr Zaki will head the First Goalscorer market (at around [8.0] once it matures) but I’m a huge Kevin Davies fan and would take a chance on the Bolton forward at around [10.0].

It’s a South American battle to make the semis and Ben Caudell fancies the favourite.

The quarter-finals of the Rome Masters kicks off today featuring five of the six top seeds, led by three time champion Rafael Nadal, two time finalist Roger Federer, and last year’s winner Novak Djokovic.

For the first time ever, two qualifiers, Juan Monaco, and Mischa Zverev, have reached the quarter finals. Zverev will meet the resurgent Federer who avenged his 2008 quarter final loss to Radek Stepanek by demolishing the Czech in two straights sets 6-4 6-1.

Nadal and Djokovic lost only three games between them in their defeats of Robin Soderling and Tommy Robredo. Both players showed exactly why they are regarded as clay court maestros and favourites to reach this year’s final. Nadal has won 27 straight matches on clay going back to May 7, 2008 when he lost to countryman Juan Carlos Ferrero in the second round (after a bye) in Rome. During the winning streak, he’s won 65 of 69 sets. Since 2005, Nadal has compiled an outstanding 144-4 match record on clay a phenomenal feat in its own right and a record that we will never see the likes of again…

Today’s Selections:

Juan Monaco (ARG) v Fernando Gonzalez (CHI)
This South American battle commences at 19:30 (UK time) and is my match of the day. Both players will significantly improve their world ranking if they are to reach the semis at this year’s Rome Masters. Gonzalez will be hoping to improve on his 2009 clay court record 10-1 and reach his third semi final of the year, having reached the same round in Barcelona last week, and Vina Del Mar, which he won earlier this year. The Chilean definitely feels at home in Rome, he has a 15-5 record at this event, his last two losses have come against eventual champion Rafael Nadal in the 2006, 2007 quarter-finals, and he withdrew from his match against Nicolas Almagro in 2008 due to injury.

Monaco is appearing in his first Master Series quarter-final, his previous best result was a third round defeat two weeks ago in Monte Carlo. Qualifying into the main draw at this year’s event has meant that today’s match will be his sixth match in a row. Defeating Nicolas Kiefer, Andy Murray, and Marin Cilic has given the Argentinean clay court specialist the confidence to go further, however with a 0-5 head-to-head losing record against Gonzalez, four of which were on clay, reaching the semi finals in Rome could be a step too far.

I predict that the power Gonzalez possesses on his forehand side will be too much for the Argentinean to handle. Gonzalez likes to run around his backhand and dominate proceedings from that side. Monaco doesn’t have a big shot in his armoury but what he does do, is get everything that is thrown at him back. His movement around the court is exceptional and is probably the fitter of the two. This match has the potential to go to three sets and I think it will be Fernando Gonzalez who will be the eventual winner in what could be the match of the tournament.

All the betting moves from Punchestown, Lingfield, Musselburgh and Southwell.

Punchestown

4.20
Ballytrim, 4.3 out to 6.6
Hold The Pin, 5.5 out to 8.2

4.55
Equus Maximus, 3.2 out to 4.5
Golden Silver, 8.2 out to 12
Ravens Run, 26 in to 14

5.30
Punjabi, 3.95 out to 5.2
Muirhead, 7.6 out to 10
Sizing Europe, 24 in to 17

6.05
Cousin Vinny, 5.5 into 4.2

6.40
Copper Bleu, 2.6 out to 3.4
Zaarito, 2.8 out to 5
Puyol, 9.4 in to 6.4

Lingfield

1.40
Tryst, 4.1 in to 2.3
Euston Square, 3.3 out to 4
Learo Dochais, 16.5 out to 32

2.10
Art Jewel, 2.86 out to 3.85
Forget, 9.6 in to 8

2.45
Secret Witness, 5.2 in to 3.4

3.20
Swiss Diva, 4.7 in to 4
Jordaura, 6 in to 5

3.55
Mastership, 10.5 in to 8.4

4.30
Red Somerset, 4 in to 3.25

5.05
Montbretia, 4.5 in to 3.5
Lady Jane Digby, 9 in to 7.4
Whitcombe Ministe,r 7.6 out to 9.4
Beauchamp Viceroy, 11.5 in to 8

5.35
Sehoy, 4.5 in to 2.94
Scene Two, 3.7 out to 4.9
Curacao, 8.6 out to 15
Just Like Silk, 11.5 in to 8

Musselburgh

2.20
Dispol Grand, 6.4 in to 4.6
Fasliyanne, 6.2 out to 7.4

2.55
Saucy Girl, 2.04 out to 2.58
Ventura Cove, 7.8 in to 4.7

4.05
Cheveton, 3.94 in to 3.05

4.40
Zefooha, 11.5 in to 9

5.15
Opus Maximus, 9.2 in to 5.8

5.50
Mandalay King, 7 in to 5.8

Southwell

3.05
Madison Belle, 1.96 out to 2.83

4.15
Paddy Rielly, 2.4 into 1.96

5.25
Captain Dancer, 2.9 into 1.97
Just Five, 4.3 out to 6

The proposed new Lega Calcio Serie A must overcome a raft of obstacles to become a success.

Leicester are in fine shape but Cardiff are accurately priced as favourites for Sunday’s semi-final at the Millenium Stadium, says Geoffrey Riddle. Meanwhile, on Saturday, can Leinster upset the form book in the all Irish clash?

History is an important tool that, as a culture, we try to use in the hope of avoiding similar mistakes. Punters also try to take history into consideration, the formbook being a slightly more interesting text than anything a humanities master ever gave me to read at school. The trick, however, is not just learning the lessons that history can teach us but applying them in a way that can lead to profit.

Take this weekend’s Heineken Cup semi-finals between Cardiff and Leicester at the Millennium Stadium, and Munster’s all-Irish confrontation against Leinster at Croke Park. The formbook offers up a confusing picture to Sunday’s Millennium showdown and before kick-off you could be forgiven for backing either side if you took history as your guide. In Ireland though, the recent superiority of Munster indicates that Leinster may well be up against it on Saturday.

At face value Leicester have crossed Offa’s Dyke before and beaten the Blues, and quite recently, too. In the Pool stages in 2006-07, Leicester marched into the Welsh capital and beat Cardiff 21-17, and anyone punting on Sunday’s encounter might look at this match and think that the Tigers are a dream bet a [2.34] in the match betting market.

And maybe they are. Statistically, Welsh sides have lost more knockout rounds at home in Europe than they have won. English sides generally have done quite well in Wales in the Heineken Cup over the years as well. But Cardiff lost prop Gary Powell to a red card in the 50th minute that day, and the Blues are a very different proposition now. A glance at the venerable Euro rugby table produced at the time shows how much better Leicester were than their opponents ahead of that tie. A look at the table now shows that the two teams are considered about equal. Gone too is Cardiff’s patchy European record, and they will stand before Richard Cockerill’s men boasting a 100% European success rate this season. They also have the dubious honour of being EDF Energy champions after their drubbing of Gloucester.

Leicester are in fine shape at the moment, though, having thumped a disappointing Bristol side last weekend, and you don’t need to have had a pint with Cockerill to know that the Tigers’ camp is bristling with confidence. Lewis ‘Crazy Horse’ Moody is back from injury and both sides are relatively fresh for this point in the season.

As a result, I would leave the match betting market to the traders, because all in all, the history lessons here indicate that there is precious room for manoeuvre, with Cardiff accurately priced as favourites at around the [1.82] mark.

Where there might be hint of value perhaps is in the total points market, although I think it is more of hunch than a considered betting proposition. Consider the fact that there has been just one match in the entire 26 game history of Heineken Cup semi-finals where a try hasn’t been scored (It’s the 18-9 win by over Bath Rugby in San Sebastian in 2006, if you are wondering).

Cardiff’s games have been low scoring recently, but that partly could be down to rustiness becuase they have had few games since January. Their 50-point mauling of Gloucester couldn’t have been more impressive.

Leicester average 18.7 points on the road this calendar year, racking up some big scores against the more free-flowing sides such as Wasps and London Irish. If Cardiff are to justify favouritism at all, and Leicester perform better than average, it won’t take much for both teams to combine and bust the overs in the total points market.

The rivalry between Munster and Leinster began in 1876, so there is plenty of form for anoraks to get stuck into. The key factor though for Saturday’s furious head-to-head is that Munster destroyed Leinster 30-6 at this stage of the Heineken Cup in 2006.

Now, that may seem a long time ago but there is a chance that Munster may field no fewer than 10 of that victorious squad on Saturday, and Leinster may name over half of that losing side. What’s more, Leinster lost 18-0 to their old rivals at the RDS in a blood and thunder encounter earlier this season, the first time in five years that they had lost at home to Irish opposition. Munster then confirmed their superiority with a 22-5 win against Leinster earlier this month at Thomond Park.

I cannot for a moment see how the Dubliners possibly can turn this around and Munster deserve to be as short as [1.33].

Sport is full of upsets, and at much greater quotes of odds against than Leinster’s [4.4]. But it will take something magical and wondrous to turn around Munster’s proven superiority, and history shows that if you make the right choices, time and again, you’ll come out on top, whatever the odds may be.

The Joker recommends that you back the one time scourge of Alan Shearer et al…

The latest instalment of the Joker’s occasional series on forgotten heroes of European football features Trelleborgs, the Swedish part-timers who ended Blackburn Rovers’s first ever European campaign in the first round of the 1994/95 UEFA Cup.

Rovers’s smorgasbord of talent cost almost £30 million; Trelleborgs’s players were on a 20 krona bonus for scoring. Fredrik Sandell, a supplier of ink to local newspapers in his day job, took his opportunity to write the headlines, scoring the only goal of the first leg.

Alan Shearer was part of the Blackburn team that day. Might he have learnt something about expensively assembled, underperforming Premier League teams?

Not just yet, if Newcastle United’s recent results are anything to go by.

Since Swedish football started up again at the beginning of April, Orgryte have lost all six of their league and cup games. Trelleborgs, who finished last season strongly and are unbeaten in nine at Vangavallen, look good at [1.69] to win this evening.

Manchester United aren’t the only team chasing a League and European Cup double. Leicester go to the Millennium Stadium on Sunday to face Cardiff in the Heineken Cup semi-final with exactly the same objective in rugby union. Betfair went to meet Kiwi star Scott Hamilton to see if the Tigers were ready to roar…

They reckon 50,000 in the Millennium Stadium – this must be the sort of thing you came to England for?

Absolutely. I’ve never been there before so it will be totally new for me. I’ve seen it on TV, of course, and it looks awesome. I’m really looking forward to it and hope the track is in good order and the weather not too bad. New Zealand’s not that big a population so our ground in Canterbury held only 36,500. The biggest stadium I’ve played in was probably in South Africa where the noise was phenomenal, and the best the Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane which was built totally for rugby and holds about 55,000. This will be right up with that.

Does that inspire you?

Of course, because when you’re growing up that’s where you want to play. The tradition was of Cardiff Arms Park and I’ve been there, and there was also Twickenham where I managed to get a run against Harlequins earlier on. It’s great to say I’ve played there, and hopefully we can win this weekend and then I can tick Murrayfield off as well!

So do your fancy your chances of doing that?

Yeah, you’d like to think so – obviously the boys are really looking forward to it. It’s been a good second half of the season for us, there’s now massive media interest as well and that gets everyone going, everyone’s really excited and you know we are only one step away from the big dance so that in itself is great

What attracted you to Leicester?

Well, if I’m honest I didn’t know too much about European rugby. I took a bit of interest, I knew Leicester and maybe Wasps were always up there and blah, blah, blah, but didn’t really know much about who the players were. But when I began to talk about coming to Europe I felt I’d been pretty successful playing for Canterbury and Crusaders and I didn’t want to go to a team that was struggling. I wanted to go to a club that would be winning and I’ve been really happy with the way things have been going here. Winning equals happiness in my book.

How does the standard of the Guinness Premiership compare to where you were playing in New Zealand?

It took me time to get used to the difference. I’ve come from Super 14 and the new rules they’ve been playing down there, which are probably going to get cut I know, but the game is a lot quicker than over here and the fitness levels back home are quite a lot higher. Here it is a different game, but I have got used to it now. Our game plan has changed a bit in the last couple of months and that has suited me as well, and I feel a lot more at home. It’s now very similar to what we had at Crusaders, not necessarily relying on individuals but more of a team effort and putting people into holes and things like that. That’s how I’ve played for a long time.

If the fitness levels are higher at home have you tried to bring those standards with you?

It’s different fitness because in the Northern Hemisphere there’s a lot more emphasis on weight and size. If you are a big boy, or you are slow, with the quick taps and everything that happens down South you get found out quickly, whereas over here if you can’t scrimmage you get found out quicker than you do back home. There are pros and cons either way, but I’m certainly doing a lot more gym work than I was a few years ago. I’m bigger and stronger now. You have to adapt to where you are.

You’ve got two All Blacks caps but you effectively gave that up by coming here. Was it a hard decision?

I had a couple of Tests but there were some good outside backs coming through. I felt if I was going to come over here and, first of all to be honest, get a decent contract, and get paid well enough to make the decision to come worthwhile, as well as attract top teams to want me, I had to accept that my international days would end, even though I was still playing relatively well. I didn’t want to leave it too late before trying Europe. Obviously you can’t play for New Zealand but if you look there are some very good guys playing in this competition that could easily make the All Blacks and they’ve obviously made the same decision. There’s a multitude of reasons, you spend so much time away from home with the All Blacks. It’s tough for guys with families and that’s why a lot end up coming over.

You mention Leicester’s great second half to the season. Tell us about Richard Cockerill’s influence since he took over…

He’s been massive for us, and Matt O’Connor as well has been massive from the backs point of view. He’s probably instilled a little bit more of perhaps you could say a Southern hemisphere approach which I’m really used to, and the guys have taken it on board. We’re playing a lot more like we did with Crusaders. We play as a team, spread players across the pitch to use the width, we don’t always have to go there but I think it’s been awesome. At the start of the season we were kicking a lot more, and I suppose we weren’t really kicking that well at times, but now it’s just a buzz. You start getting a few wins under the belt and everyone starts getting excited and having ideas about what we should be doing and it is only positive things from there

Gloucester were trying to win a double until last week when they ran out of steam for their League games. It’s such a physical sport so is it really possible to win two trophies with all the extra games you have to play?

We’ll find out. We have our backs against the wall, we know. Cardiff rested all their players last week, I don’t know about Munster but they might well have done the same, but we have got to back up, we have a six day turnaround to play Bath at home again, while those guys have had a chance to rest up. I’m pretty disappointed we’re not playing our semi-final on the Saturday. I think we’ve been hard done by to only have six days to recover before the Premiership play-offs, to be honest. I guess it’s a hard road to home but then that will make it all the more successful if we can do it. But you are right, like Gloucester, if we were to lose this weekend then all of a sudden we are under the pump, we are only left in one competition. I’d prefer to look at it that if we can get through this one it will be a massive tick for us in terms of getting confidence and silverware at the end of the season.

Thanks for your time and we wish you luck. We’ve a free £50 bet for your favourite charity

That can go to the fund for Matt Hampson, the young Leicester forward who suffered a serious neck injury four years ago. There are all sorts of events for him – have a look at www.walk4matt.org. I’ve got a bet with Toby Flood that Newcastle will get relegated, so I’ll put this money on that as well. I know [1.55] isn’t great odds but I was always taught a short price winner is better than a losing outsider!

On the eve of a crucial promotion battle, Shrewbury’s right back discusses the big games in League Two, his determination to land silverware and why Chelsea might yet fail to make the Champions League final.

Well, this is the last article that I shall write before the last game of the regular season this Saturday…

As I stated last week, our fate is still in our own hands and, although last week’s result against Lincoln was a disappointment, the result – barring a defeat – was neither here nor there as we take on Dagenham & Redbridge who occupy the last play-off place with only two points between us!

This is a must-win game and I believe we are taking 1,400 fans which shows the level of support we get – all of these sort of factors have an important part to play as well.
This is the first time in my career that the last remaining fixture has something riding on it, which is the same for Exeter and Bury who are in the race to clinch third spot. If you had told me that those two would have been fighting it out for the last automatic place I wouldn’t have believed you. Credit must go to both of their managers who have done a fantastic job.

Bury take on Accrington at Gigg Lane…Let’s hope none of their players have bet on themselves to lose this year! I can see Bury winning this one to be honest. Exeter undoubtedly have the harder task, away at Rotherham who will want to finish in the “real top three” (the table without points deductions for financial issues). Exeter are the better equipped team for life in League One; I was most impressed with them on the two occassions we came across them and I would go as far to say that they are the best footballing team that we have come up against this term.

The only trophies that I have won so far are two reserve league titles, the latest one coming this week when I skippered the team to victory in our final reserve team game of the season. I’m still waiting for the trophy to lift, medal and of course a bottle of bubbly!

It is in stark contrast to the last time I won a reserve title way back when I was 17 and I lifted the Barclaycard Premiership reserve league title with Watford. We had to win our last game at home to West Ham to clinch the title infront of 4,500 fans at Vicarage Road. Fortunately we won the game 1-0, the celebrations that followed were pretty decent for a ressie league. It’s pretty much the same as when one of the Premiership teams win the league; trophy, champers and a solid gold medal.

It was a proud moment for me being a YTS player and considering I made the most appearances it was something to be proud of. Obviously it is nice to win trophies and does give you an appetite to win more but I’m desperate to add a proper trophy to these two.

The Champions League is probably the most important trophy to win at club level and this week Chelsea did one part of the job, holding many people’s favourite’s Barcelona at The Nou Camp. Sometimes in football the performance is secondary to the result and this was definitely the case on Tuesday night.

Many people think that Chelsea have done the hard part by not conceding but I think they will be really up against it at ‘The Bridge’. Chelski have to win the game, simple as that, a draw won’t be enough so Guus Hiddink’s side are going to have to come out and attack, thus leaving more space for Lionel Messi and co to get to work.

Don’t get me wrong I have played in many games where the performance has been negative and disciplined. I remember a game against Peterborough a few years back where we won 2-0 but literally had 10 men behind the ball for 90 minutes and managed to score from the only two attempts that we had. Needs must sometimes.

Staying on the Chelsea theme, Hiddink should be delighted that Peter Cech was back to his old best on Tuesday night. The Czech pulled of some top saves to keep Barca at bay and looked as though he was never going to be beaten. It shows great character on Cech’s part because many pundits have been throwing stick his way in recent weeks.

Chelsea take on their West London rivals Fulham this weekend at Stamford Bridge. My last betting tip was an absolute shocker no thanks to a certain Mr Webb! But for this week I can’t see past a Chelsea win at [1.53] and if Cech is in the same inspired form as he was midweek you can expect a Chelsea clean sheet at [2.06] to back.

Gareth Southgate’s men will be fighting for their lives at the Riverside on Saturday and, with one eye on their Champions League semi-final, could Manchester United stutter on the big four’s least happy North East hunting ground? Best Bet: Back 1-1 @ 9.2 and 0-1 @ 7.0 (split stakes)

Match Odds

After being outclassed at the Emirates last weekend, Middlesbrough’s quest for survival continues against another Big Four side with the visit of the champions to the Riverside. Middlesbrough have been something of a bogey side for United, with the Red Devils not winning back-to-back league matches against them since 2001 and having a worse win rate in that time (W6-D4-L4) against only Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City.

While ‘Boro were demolished 5-0 here by Chelsea in their first game hosting the Big Four this season, they have lost only two of their subsequent 13 home league games — including a draw with Arsenal and a win over Liverpool — and are unbeaten at home in 2009. Indeed, in the last four years they have lost only three of their 15 home games against the Big Four, going W3-D5-L3 under Southgate.

The task facing Man Utd then, is sterner than the league table might suggest. However, they have had an extreme split in their away record this season — failing to win at any of the six sides immediately below them but going W9-D1-L0 against those currently in eighth or below. Over the previous two seasons they won three quarters (W15-D3-L2) of their games at bottom-half finishers — including 10 of 12 (W10-D0-L2) at the bottom six — which would imply value in their [1.49] win price.

While United’s record in these games is predictably strong, ‘Boro’s recent resilience at home and, in particular, against the Big Four makes it hard to plump for the away win and we would avoid the result market.

Correct score

The 0-0 and 1-1 draws (both 4/17) account for nearly half of the scores at the Riverside this season, with the 1-1 and 2-0 win (both 2/8) most common against current top-half sides. 1-1 is also their most common scoreline hosting the Big Four under Southgate (3/11), with the 2-1 win (2/11) the only other score to occur more than once.

Half (5/10) of United’s games at the teams from outside the top seven this season have finished
1-0, while no score dominates their recent form against bottom-half finishers (2-1 tops with 4/20 over the past two seasons).

The 1-0 away win ([7.0]) and 1-1 ([9.2]) both warrant consideration here, either with split stakes or as longer-priced options to backing or laying United.

HT/FT

United’s first-half record at bottom-half finishers over the past two seasons is unimpressive (W6-D11-L3), recording more D/Ws (eight) than W/Ws (six). This season they have had one more W/W (four) than D/W (three) at the current bottom-half sides but the prevailing trend is that for those backing the away win, there is more value to be had in taking United to D/W ([4.6]).
Thanks mostly to four goalless draws, the D/D (5/17) has been the most common double result at the Riverside this season, with that also the most common (4/11) at home to the Big Four under Southgate.

Middlesbrough clean sheet

Middlesbrough’s 2-0 win over Liverpool was only their second clean sheet in 11 games hosting the Big Four since Southgate took charge, although they have recorded four in their last six home matches.

United have failed to score three times on the road this season –all against teams currently in the top half — and they have done so in only two of their 20 at bottom-half finishers over the past two seasons.

Man Utd clean sheet

United have kept just one clean sheet in their last eight league games and none in their last three on the road. They have blanked five of the seven bottom-half teams away this season but have conceded in the last two such matches. ‘Boro have scored in eight of Southgate’s 11 games at home to the Big Four, though they have failed to score as often as any side in the league at home this season (7/17).

‘The Worm’ can exploit Federer’s weaknesses on clay, says Ben Caudell.

We were treated to a full day’s play yesterday at the Rome Masterswith number four seed Andy Murray bowing out due to a second round defeat to Juan Monaco of Argentina. It was Murray’s first opening-round loss since August 2008 at the Beijing Olympics where he lost to Yen-sun Lu. Having reached the semi-finals of Barcelona a week ago Murray’s intentions were apparent early on as he stormed through the first set losing only one game.

Monaco admitted to pre-match nerves and managed to keep calm at the start of the second set breaking Murray twice to even the match at one set all. Monaco, led 4-2 in the deciding set before Murray fought back to 5-4, but clinched the decisive service break in the 11th game. It was his 15th win of the season and avenged his loss to Murray at the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Miami last month. We were successful in backing Juan Monaco @ [4.4] and laying Murray 2-0 @ [1.3], my Tuesday tips.

There happened to be a few upsets yesterday with Nikolay Davydenko, David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga joining Murray in the departure lounge. Eleven of the sixteen seeds remain, with the top three players in the world, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and Novak Djokovic show casing today’s play.

Today’s Selections:

Roger Federer (SWI) v Radek Stepanek (CZE)
Federer has a 8-2 head-to-head record over the occasionally irritating Radek Stepanek. One of the two wins the Czech has over Federer came this time last year in Rome, a 7-6 7-6 epic which saw Stepanek’s famous worm dance take centre stage after his biggest ever win.

The last seven matches between the pair have seen no less than ten tie break sets being played, highlighting the fact that this match could be a close fought battle. Federer played awfully yesterday against the big serving Croat, Ivo Karlovic. The Swiss player lacks confidence in his serve and forehand and I can see Stepanek exploiting the his weaknesses on the clay. I can see this being a tight three set match that could go either way, therefore I will be backing Stepanek +4.5 Games and over’s on the total games market.

Selections: Back Stepanek +4.5 Handicap @ [1.8]; Back over 21.5 Games @ [2.0]

Alan Dudman is looking forward to a trip to the dentists but a number of managers will be hoping their players don’t let them down with toothless displays on the final day of the League One season. Best Bet: Back Brighton HT/FT to beat Stockport.

It’s D-day folks. And that stands for two things this week. From a personal point of view, ‘d’ is for dentist. My front teeth lost an argument with a particularly nasty baguette on Monday, and I am off to get them sorted. However, there are far more exciting developments in store this Saturday – as D-day could stand for errr, relegation (demotion? ed). Let the scrap for survival begin.

Mind you, I am quite looking forward to seeing my dentist again this week, she reminds me of the girlfriend of Marcus in the BBC’s much underrated soap/drama/comedy Eldorado.

We move on at pace. And just to recap on what can happen for those who have been away for the past nine months (perhaps in Spain?), here we go……..

Leicester and Posh are up. The play-off spots are all but fixed, bar Tranmere and
Scunthorpe fighting for the final place. Northampton need at least a point to give themselves a chance for survival. Carlisle have to beat Millwall to stay up, whilst Brighton can guarantee their status in the division by beating Stockport at home. Hartlepool are still mathematically in the mix, and need a point at Bristol Rovers to assure their future.

You still with me?

Regarding the relegation market. Crewe have all but lost the fight and trade at [1.02] to go
down. Carlisle’s price is [1.32]. Brighton and Northampton are both around [4.70], and
Hartlepool (who have a superior goal difference), can be backed at a whopping [55.00].

Brighton and Hove Albion [1.56] v Stockport County [6.60], the draw [3.95]

This game virtually sold out on Monday, and the atmosphere will be red hot for a game that Albion simply have to win to keep themselves in League One for next season.

Brighton always remind me of a good pal of mine from a few years back. Gaz loved the Seagulls, and I am sure he’ll be there praying his team get the result. Good luck
Gazza – I hope you do.

The fans of course can play a huge part this weekend, and I hope the players feel the full force from the crowd. Russell Slade’s side have done what most sides do when
faced with the drop – and started to win games. They’ve taken 13 points from a possible 18 recently, and can make one final push across the survival line.

It’s a pretty silly price at [1.56], but with the stakes so high, you were never going to get anything above evens. Stockport are huge considering the young talent they have, but their season is over, and Jim Gannon will be a manager that quite a few clubs will be interested in over the summer months.

Recent signing Lloyd Owusu has been an absolute star in bagging six goals from six games. He’s red hot, and with messrs Hart and Murray possibly back in the frame, the Seagulls look unopposable here.

Recommendations: Back Brighton HT/FT
Back Brighton to win 2-0

Carlisle United [1.96] v Millwall [2.06], the draw [3.75]

Remember Carlisle winning five of their first eight games at the start of the season? Seems a long time ago doesn’t it? Well it’s been a wretched run since, and Greg Abbott’s side now face relegation.

Their last win was back in March, and it doesn’t look great. They need a win, and need it badly, as three points here could mean survival.

Carlisle have Jimmy Glass as their guest of honour on Saturday. And if you don’t know who he is, well shame on you! Ten years ago the goalkeeper pulled off one of the most amazing pieces of football history. But can lightning strike twice?

Northampton’s loss in midweek was a major boost for the Cumbrians, and they take on a Millwall side who have already secured a play-off berth.

From a punting point of view these games can be a nightmare. Carlisle’s form doesn’t warrant that price – but the situation does. Millwall are the better side, but will Kenny Jackett rest a few players with the play-offs in mind?

The Lions are in really good nick, and momentum is a word that will be mentioned with the bigger games in mind. Perhaps they might have an eye on the semi-final, but victory could mean a top four finish – and a top four finish equals a favourable schedule for the play-offs.

It’s a really tricky game this one, but with so much at stake for the home side, I will ask for [2.00] on them winning.

Recommendations: Back Carlisle @ [2.00] to beat Millwall

Managers and players face tricky dilemmas as Ian Lamont looks ahead to the final day of the League Two season. Best Bet: Lay Exeter at Rotherham at [2.1].

In the words of the great philosopher Homer Simpson, if you don’t try you’ll never fail – and if you have no ambition you can’t be disappointed.

That “why bother?” aphorism sprung to mind when faced with second guessing this week’s final day matches in League Two.

Look what happened in the final round of the Blue Square Premier last weekend. Five of the top seven teams needed to win to secure, or improve, play-off positions. Only one won – sinking the faltering champions: Burton Albion have much to do to be a League Two force next season.

So, with complete trepidation I foretell Bury sneaking that final automatic promotion place and Dagenham holding on to seventh.

The Shakers could pinch promotion from Exeter, who hold third but hardly any aces. Only a few weeks ago one of their players said he was thrilled at the prospect of a third successive play-offs.

That underlined their expectations – and that they have exceeded them by sitting in the top three. Furthermore, the [2.1] about them to win away against Rotherham is typical of the layers offering a short price for teams who have to win, simply believing many will pile into them because they must win. I’ll take the lay, because Exeter might have proved Wycombesque in overcoming the stern defenders of Lincoln on their last away trip, but that was courtesy of a very late own goal.

The Grecians’ record on long trips North this season is poor. Since beating Macclesfield, Bury and Port Vale in September and October they have not won anywhere near the North on their travels. In fact, in the past 10 away trips, they have only won at Luton and Lincoln.

Paul Tisdale is a decent tactician but he has his work cut out to beat a Millers side that has lost once in 11 home games. Manager Mark Robins wants to win. “We still have that target of an equivalent top three place,” he said, presumably with an eye on next season.

Exeter – as seems their habit away – might get a draw, but Bury most certainly should despatch Accrington Stanley. The wobbles got to Chesterfield last week against John Coleman’s side, but Bury are at home and with four out of five wins at Gigg Lane.

Cambridge United’s failure to break down Altrincham in last Sunday’s Blue Square Premier is a cautionary tale, but while Stanley can be stubborn in defence and will play with no fear, this is the chance for Bury’s front six to prove why I have so admired their interweaving, interchanging style this season. At such a short price they are a tentative recommendation.

Striker Glynn Hurst has been praised by Alan Knill for waiting patiently for his chance, then netting four goals in three games before last Saturday’s goalless draw at Gillingham. The strikers know there is no room for slacking. Andy Morrell must be itching for another chance.

Bury are very short to back – and if they don’t manage victory then there is a very real chance last week’s draw in Kent will be repeated in the play-off final.

A similar “sizing each other up” affair looks likely for Gillingham, at Rochdale. There is something strange occurring in Kent, with Gills boss Mark Stimson saying he might rest a couple of players and ask the rest if they want to play or keep themselves fresh for the play-offs.

That’s a new psychological strategy on me, but it might work. The players hardly want to risk giving away home advantage in the play-off second leg do they?

The pair could face each other next Thursday, and will if Dagenham draw with Shrewsbury in what looks the distinctly possible scenario. The Daggers are more attack-minded but Shrewsbury are sure to throw everything at them. But I don’t see it being enough.

Paul Stimpson might be tempted to say to his players: let’s see how the Daggers deal with the new pressure of holding the play-off spot his Shrews have had all season. But the momentum is with John Still’s side. They have four straight wins at Victoria Road, four wins from the last five games, four players who have scored more than 10 goals and the highest number of goals at home in the division.

Shrewsbury have two wins away all season, the most recent a fortnight ago courtesy of an own goal. The visitors are a big price lay at [3.5] (3.0 with regular bookies but you’ll be lucky to get that on Betfair), but with the play-offs effectively starting now, if you want a bigger return go for the draw at [3.2] in a game in which they have to score.