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Adebayor targets vital away goal
Arsenal striker Emmanuel Adebayor is focused on silencing the Old Trafford boo-boys with another crucial European away goal tomorrow night.
Rome Masters Tennis Betting: Day two tips
Let’s hope for better weather on day two as Ben Caudell spies some tasty odds and Andy Murray makes his entrance to the Rome Masters event…
Windy conditions followed by sudden downpours disrupted the opening day’s play at the Rome Masters which meant that not all of the scheduled matches were completed.
Yesterday’s tip on Andreas Seppi to defeat Sam Querrey will be one of the matches rescheduled for Tuesday (13:15 UK time). Also playing tomorrow will be the defending champion Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, who is yet to go beyond the third round in Rome. Murray is still gunning for that elusive number three spot in the world rankings and believes that if Novak Djokovic doesn’t win this year’s event he will finally succeed in ousting the Serbian.
From the matches that were completed, the biggest upset was James Blake’s defeat to little known Victor Crivoi from Romania. Blake refused to blame the windy conditions and vowed to make some adjustments in his game before the start of the French Open. Qualifier Crivoi will now meet either Robin Soderling or Marcel Granollers in the second round.
Today’s Selections:
Mischa Zverev (GER) v Tomas Berdych (CZE)
Tomas Berdych has a 1-0 head-to-head record over the German Mischa Zverev, the match was played on a hard court and Berdych won in straight sets 6-1 6-4 two years ago. Berdych, who at times has shown glimpses of a scintillating all-round game to match any player in the top 20, has a knack of not fulfilling his true capabilities especially against lesser ranked players. To be fair to the 24-year-old-Czech, 2009 hasn’t been all that bad, the majority of his losses have been against top ten world ranked players, including a five set thriller against Roger Federer at the Australian Open and most recently a close three set loss to Fernando Verdasco.
Mischa Zverev on the other hand is a left hander whose main weapon is the serve. The serve is less important on clay than on other surfaces and without all-round court ability the German will struggle against a better more experienced player in Berdych. Zverev’s game suits a faster court surface and having never been past the first round at Master Series level, I expect this to be a comfortable straight sets win for Berdych at rather tasty odds.
Selection: Back Tomas Berdych @ [1.4] to win match
Back Berdych 2 -0 @ [2.0]
Andy Murray (GBR) v Juan Monaco (ARG)
Andy Murray may have defeated Juan Monaco in three sets last month but today they meet on the Argentine’s favoured clay court surface. Monaco has a slight advantage coming into this match; he has already played three matches so far at this year’s Rome Masters, two rounds of qualifying and a first round win over Nicolas Kiefer. He will therefore be more accustomed to the faster clay court and will exude confidence in the knowledge that Murray has struggled on this surface in the past and has never been past the third round in Rome.
Selection: Lay Andy Murray 2-0 @ [1.3]
Back Juan Monaco @ [4.4] to win match (small bet)
Arsenal not scared – Toure
Kolo Toure maintains Arsenal should not be “scared” of any side and insists their free-flowing football can prove a match for European champions Manchester United.
Rome Masters Tennis Betting: Day one tips
It’s not only Rafael Nadal who loves the red stuff – clay also happens to be Ben Caudell’s favourite surface to trade on. Our man picks his best bets from the opening day in the Italian capital…
The clay court season is in full swing and this week’s event, the BNL D’Italia, the fourth ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournament of the year kicks off today with eight of the world’s top ten players featuring in a star studied draw that includes Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and last years champion Novak Djokovic.
Rafael Nadal will be hoping to cement his dominance on the clay by capturing a fourth title in Rome, having won previously in 2007, 2006, and 2005 and by overtaking Roger Federer in total Master 1000 series titles won (currently 14 each) both players having won more than Pete Sampras (11.0) but less than Andre Agassi (17.0) .
The Spaniard enters this year’s event as the top seed for the first time with four titles this year and a 33-3 match record. Last year Nadal went out in the second round to fellow countryman Juan Carlos Ferrero after winning back-to-back titles in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona. Since this loss Nadal has gone on a 25 match winning streak on the clay and since 2005 he has accomplished a 142-4 record on clay. No wonder he is the overwhelming favourite to capture a 15th ATP World series 1000 title.
Once again, I will be hoping to find some decent value bets on what happens to be my favourite surface to trade on.
Today’s Selections:
Andreas Seppi (ITA) v Sam Querrey (USA)
Home favourite Andreas Seppi will have his work cut out against the American Sam Querrey in this late night match-up. The Italian has a 3-7 record at the Rome Masters losing to another American at last year’s event, James Blake in three tight sets. The Rome clay is slightly faster than your average clay court so will tend to favour the better server. Querrey’s serve will be tough to break down for the Italian and this match potentially could go to three sets with the possibility of a tie-break in one of the sets.
The biggest factor to look at in deciding on a winner in this match is clay court experience. Seppi has played several times this year on the European clay and therefore his movement, groundstrokes, and tactical nous will have already been utilised. Sam Querrey has had little practice on the red stuff with the Rome Masters his first clay court tournament of the year. He has struggled with a hamstring injury recently so won’t be match fit. I believe he will find it hard to settle into this match against Seppi who will have the support of the Italian fans, I just hope the Italian has the confidence to see this match through to the end.
Chelsea v Barcelona – Past Meetings
Chelsea are on track to reach their second Champions League final in a row following last year’s defeat on penalties to Manchester United in Moscow, but Barcelona stand in their way in the last four.
Tennis Betting: Rome Masters preview
After a profitable week for Sean Calvert in Barcelona, the tour moves to Rome where 63 of the world’s top players will once again be trying to work out how to dent Rafael Nadal’s dominance on the red dirt.
Starting with the positives from Barcelona, I correctly predicted that it would be a Rafa Nadal v David Ferrer final, but sadly the Valencian was unable to find a way to beat the world number one this time.
It didnt help Ferrer’s cause that Nadal was handed a bye with the withdrawal of David Nalbandian in the quarter-finals. The last thing you need if you’re Ferrer is taking on a nicely rested Nadal when youve been slugging out tight three setters all week.
At least it was a profitable event though as Ferrer was matched as high as [60.0] and as low as [9.6], so there were ample opportunities to make money following the back-to-lay advice.
Nadal was once again at his brilliant best against Ferrer and we now move on to Rome where 63 of the world’s top players will once more try and solve the conundrum of how to put a dent in Nadal’s dominance on the red dirt.
The Pearl de Manacor for once is not defending the title in Rome, where he lost out to Juan Carlos Ferrero in his opening match in 2008, but that defeat is Nadal’s only loss at the Rome Masters from 18 matches and I seem to recall that he was hampered by injury in the all-Spanish encounter.
Nadal won this in 2005, ’06 and ’07 and will start at around [1.4] to claim his fourth Rome Masters title, but the defending champion is Novak Djokovic, who took advantage of Nadal’s early loss to beat Stan Wawrinka in the final and is a [15.0] shot to repeat that victory.
There seems little point in investing in that because should Nadal make the final, Djokovic won’t be a great deal shorter to beat the Spaniard anyway, although the Serbian is starting to look useful again after a period in the doldrums.
Sadly, the same cannot be said of Roger Federer, who clearly has other things on his mind at the moment and the Swiss has a poor record in Rome in any case.
The fact that Federer is fourth favourite with some layers behind Nadal, Djokovic and Andy Murray tells its own story and [13.0] represents poor value for a player who has been beaten by Radek Stepanek and Filippo Volandri in his last two Rome outings.
The only saving grace for Federer is that he has been handed a plum draw with Gilles Simon [160.00] the highest ranked player in his quarter, although Ferrer [65.0] is in that section as well. After the embarrassment of Monte Carlo, it’s hard to see even a great champion such as Federer winning here at his worst when he was unable to do so at his peak.
Nadal himself has been given a charitable draw with that renowned clay-courter James Blake [1000.00] as the seed in his section and Nadal will probably find Marcel Granollers [1000.00] his last 16 opponent.
Things might get tougher for Nadal in the last eight where he will probably play Fernando Verdasco [60.0] but since the Madrid man has for some inexplicable reason reverted back to dollying his serve in rather than hitting it with the menace he showed in Melbourne it’s hard to see Verdasco prevailing.
The adjacent section of the draw to Nadal’s looks an interesting one with Andy Murray [18.5] the man seeded to meet the world number one in the semi-finals. The Scot has a dreadful record in Rome, never having won a completed match here in three starts, but he is clearly making strides on the red dirt and he is the only player that actually believes he can beat Nadal – regardless of the playing surface.
Murray should certainly improve his Rome statistics this time as he has only Juan Ignacio Chela to concern him early on, but a quarter-final against probably Fernando Gonzalez [80.0] or Nikolay Davydenko [110.00] will provide a stern test of his title credentials.
Gonzalez had something of a resurgence in Barcelona and showed his best form for a while, which is great to see. The Chilean has been lightly worked by new coach Martin Rodriguez so far this season, which has kept him fresh and he showed enough last week to convince me that he is the best of the outsiders.
His serve looked potent last week and that grandstand forehand is back after a Stefanki-inspired period of over reliance on the backhand slice. Gonzo reached the final here in 2007 and has only been beaten by Nadal in his Rome appearances since 2005, losing out to the world number one in 07 and in the quarters in 06.
The final section of the draw is of course that of Djokovic and the defending champ looks to have few serious rivals for a semi-final spot. The seed in his section is Juan Martin Del Potro [60.0], who is not much of a threat on the red stuff and once again Wawrinka [110.00] may prove to be the toughest test for the Serbian to negotiate.
Nadal will be desperate to regain his Rome title and assuming that he’s ok physically this time, that [1.4] should be looking mighty big come finals day.
Murray is next best for me at [18.5] and could be worth a small saver, while anywhere around [100.00] on Gonzalez is worth a bet and should provide an entertaining and hopefully profitable tournament at the Rome Masters.
Tennis 2009: The trouble with the women…
Simon Mundie is distinctly unimpressed by the top players in the women’s game.
It’s fair to say that men’s tennis is in the middle of a golden era at the moment, with not one but two all time great players topping the world rankings, contesting classic Grand Slam finals with enjoyable regularity. Just behind Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are a further two personalities who have every chance to establish themselves as all time greats, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, followed by several others who should push them hard over the next few years including the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Juan Martin Del Potro, as well as old crowd favourites like Andy Roddick.
The same can’t be said for the women’s game unfortunately, which is in a lull the likes of which hasn’t been seen for many years. Indeed, women’s tennis far outshone the men’s game in the early 2000s, when the top spots were occupied by the likes of Justine Henin, Lindsay Davenport, Jennifer Capriati, Kim Clijsters and the Williams sisters. Those players had different strengths and personalities, and contested several great matches in the big events.
Contrast that with the situation as it is now, and it’s clear that the current crop of players at the top of the game are simply not in the same league. They do not have the same strength of personality, their play lacks variety and it is difficult to see which of them, with the obvious exception of the Williams sisters, are genuine winners of the top order.
Of the current top five, only Serena and Venus have won any Grand Slam titles, and the whole situation is summed up by the fact that the world’s number one ranked player, Dinara Safina, is still better known for being the younger sister of Marat Safin than for her on court exploits. Could you possibly imagine the same ever being said for the likes of Navratilova, Graf, Seles or even Hingis?
Safina was recently asked about the situation and replied thus: “I’m still his younger sister. It doesn’t matter. When I walk around I still hear the crowds, saying: ‘Oh, this is the sister of Marat.’ I think I’m going to be his little sister for ever.” If she were to actually win a slam, and prove she was a worthy number one, she might be surprised that fans recognise her on her own merits.
While Safina is number one on the rankings computer, you would be hard pressed to find anyone who genuinely believes she is the best tennis player in the women’s game. That accolade goes to Serena, with Venus holding an advantage on grass having dominated Wimbledon in recent years. It was Serena though who destroyed Safina in this year’s Australian Open final 6-3 6-0 in under an hour: the worrying thing about that result was that it wasn’t really a huge surprise, and even the crowd seemed resigned to a damp squib of a match as early as the third game, considering their murmurings of discontent.
To be fair to Safina, she is relatively new to the upper echelons of the game, so could yet prove her detractors wrong. But what of the other ‘top’ players?
Jelena Jankovic has been ranked number one in the world, despite having regularly disappointed at the big events. She lacks a killer shot and even when at the top of the game, she would have to hope one of the Williams sisters is having an off day to really stand a chance. Jankovic did run Serena relatively close in last year’s US Open final, but Serena was inhibited by what had been a lean few years up until that point, as she dedicated much of her time to other distractions . The fact that she could turn her attentions away from the game as she and Venus did, and still return to the pinnacle of the game without too much bother speaks volumes.
Ana Ivanovic is another case in point. She made her Grand Slam breakthrough at the French Open last year, and looked set to dominate. Since then she has suffered a quite alarming collapse in form and confidence, with rumors of on-court panic attacks amongst other things. She entered Wimbledon last year as top seed, but was trounced in the third round by Jheng Zie, looking miles from the best the game had to offer.
The two Serbs though are far from alone as, besides the Williams, there are no outstanding players in the top 20. Part of that stems from the lack of variety in style of player: no one seems capable of anything other than grinding from the baseline. No great players from the past have been so one dimensional as the current crop, nor so mentally fragile.
So is there any hope for the immediate future of the women’s game outside of the women’s game? A swift and full return from injury for Maria Sharapova would be a welcome boost, as she is a born winner who can live with the Williams sisters. Clijsters’ supposed return to the professional set-up could prove interesting, and you have to keep your fingers crossed that Henin, who proved that variety and intelligence is more than a match for brute baseline force, has a similar change of heart.
What does all this mean to the bettor? Well, it does at least mean this year’s French Open is wide open. Serena rightly starts as favourite at [5.8] despite clay being far and away her worst surface, followed by Jankovic at [7.4]. You can get last year’s winner Ivanovic at [8.8] while next in the betting is ‘world number one’ Safina at [9.8].
One to watch out for in terms of value however is Elena Dementieva ([11.5]). Another serial underachiever, she is one of the best baseline grinders, and if she keeps her serving yips under control, could finally grab a big one. And let’s be honest, with the exception of the Williams sisters, the competition isn’t exactly fierce.
Scottish Cup semi-final statistics
The Scottish Cup semi-finals between Rangers and St Mirren and Falkirk and Dunfermline take place this weekend. Boylesports presents some of the key stats on each game.
Guinness Premiership Betting: All to play for on final afternoon
The most competitive Guinness Premiership season draws to a conclusion this Saturday, and all six fixtures are 3pm kick-offs. Sky will broadcast Bath’s match-up with Saracens, and they will have a live feed to the other five games, which should generate decent in-running trading, writes Geoffrey Riddle.
Worcester and Bristol are the only teams with nothing tangible to play for this weekend, but both of their games merit punters’ consideration. The top six teams are still jostling for a play-off spot, while Northampton and Wasps, and even Sarries and Newcastle are still in hope of playing Heineken Cup rugby next season. If Bourgoin win the European Challenge Cup, then seventh place is good enough to dine at Europe’s top table next year.
So with all to play for, punters are in for an enthralling 80 minutes and things could easily go down to the wire. Last season, Tom Varndell’s try against Harlequins at 4.39pm lifted Leicester from sixth place to fourth, and chucked Quins out of play-off contention altogether. Similarly, Raphael Ibanez’s try at 4.10pm against Leeds took Wasps from third spot to second, a position from which they launched their assault on the Guinness Premiership title.
All of the possible permutations for this season’s play-offs and for the Heineken Cup spots can be read here.
With all of those permutations in mind, therefore, it is worth having a sneak look at the Grand Final Winner market where Leicester are favourites at [2.26]. My tip at the outset of the season was for Bath to triumph, and at their current price of [5.4] they are considerably shorter, albeit to minimal liquidity. Steve Meehan’s squad lies in third, however, and with Harlequins [4.3] also having a home game against Newcastle, the top three are likely to be unchanged if things go to form. This is because if teams finish with the same number of points, it goes to games won and the Londoners currently boast 13 victories to Bath’s 12.
I have been trying to find a way to oppose London Irish for the last few weeks because I did not think that they would make the play-offs, but that stops now. Thanks to Sale’s ridiculous ploy of fielding an unregistered player, the Sharks now have bitten off more than they can chew due to the deduction of one crucial point, and they look unlikely to make the the final four now.
Despite all their wonderful play this season, London Irish never really got over the problems caused by the Six Nations and the injury to their inspirational skipper Bob Casey. They have lost seven of their last 10 matches going back to January and they also haven’t won on the road in the league since November 30th when they beat lowly Bristol. A win at Sixways may have been beyond them this weekend, given their current malaise, but Casey returns for this. Worcester beat Gloucester on Tuesday at Kingsholm, and with a European tie on the immediate horizon, the Warriors’ minds are likely to be on other things.
Punters would do well to look out for those games that could bust the ‘overs’ in the total points markets. The final round of the Guinness Premiership has long been a source for ‘overs’ players. Last year Wasps demolished Leeds 45-28 and Worcester bulldozed Newcastle 51-10. Every year there are one or two more obvious choices, and Leicester’s confrontation with Bristol at the Walkers Stadium looks a prime candidate.
Barring a catastrophe, Leicester will finish top of the Premiership pile, and Bristol’s relegation, along with the fact that this fixture does not take place at Welford Road, all contribute to the general impression that this is an exhibition match. Coach Paul Hull has named a strong West Country line-up, with the likes of Dan Ward-Smith, Shaun Perry and David Lemi, and his side will be up for this. All the ingredients of a points fest if there ever was one.
Super League Betting: Outrageous price shows how far Bulls have fallen
St Helens versus Bradford is usually an absolute blockbuster of a fixture but the Bulls’ travails this season make Friday night’s fixture look an easy call. However, there’s still plenty of value to be had this weekend, writes George Riley.
Saints’ win at Castleford last weekend, plus the predicted Leeds revival at Huddersfield means it’s as you were at the top, but Bradford’s shock home humbling by erratic Warrington outlined just how deep the Bulls wounds are this season.
There is massive and mounting pressure on coach Steve McNamara, with the once mighty club now the second worst team in Super League after 10 rounds of games. McNamara’s signings have been criticised, there is a lack of leadership and a general lack of the kind of quality matchwinner that the Bulls have boasted for years.
St Helens look untouchable, much as they did last year until their Grand Final capitulation. This is a fixture Saints should win easily, with the Bulls an extraordinary [16.5] with Betfair punters to win the game. That is an outrageous price in a two-horse race but shows just how far Bradford have fallen off the pace.
Stand-off Leon Pryce is named in the Saints squad having avoided jail and sentenced to 100 hours unpaid work after pleading guilty to assault this week. As a former Bradford player he will be jeered throughout. Debutant Julien Rinaldi will speed up the play for the Bulls but it won’t be enough.
Friday night’s other fixture sees former Leeds assistant boss Brian McDermott take his Harlequins side to Headingley. Mac is a man of immense pride and will be hurting after last week’s surprise home loss to Hull KR. Quins will be much-improved and although I don’t expect them to topple the [1.11] Rhinos, at [8.8] I may be tempted with a cheeky fiver given Leeds’ dodgy run of form. Danny McGuire makes his 200th appearance in the Blue and Amber and he should spark a home win, but having lost their last two at Headingley the pressure will be on in front of the unforgiving Southstand.
At [2.42] I like the look of a Salford upset against Hull FC at the Willows. There are two unpredictable sides and the Reds will miss the suspended Ian Sibbitt. Drubbed in France last week the Reds should be roaring. They will find it tough against a Hull side on a poor run and beaten at home by Wakefield. After a great start to the season Richard Agar’s side have slumped to eighth and will see this fixture as the start of their riposte.
Four games on Sunday, expect Castleford to justify their [1.38] price at winless Celtic Crusaders (2.88). The Tigers had a real scare when teenage sensation Joe Westerman was taken to hospital last week but will still have too much. Wakefield-Wigan looks like a cracker. Wakefield’s England centre Ryan Atkins was my guest at the World Snooker Championship this week. He’s in awesome form with seven tries in his last seven games and I can see him scoring again in a Wakefield win at [1.61]. The fact that Wakey are favourites to oust the [2.16] Warriors highlights how their respective fortunes have changed.
Two more really-well balanced ties see Huddersfield go to Warrington and Hull KR host Catalans. Both games could go either way – this season really is that unpredictable. I’m going with a Giants win at Warrington given their value at [2.2], and I expect Rovers to be too good at home for the Dragons at [1.23]. The [3.8] on the enigmatic French though is terrific value. This is the trickiest round of games to tip so far this season, and with the exception of expected home wins for the big two, there is a lot of value to be had.
League of Ireland: Derry City v Dundalk
Derry will need three points from their League of Ireland clash with Dundalk, a side who are struggling with their return to Premier Division football.
Bohemians v Bray Wanderers
In this weekend’s League of Ireland, Bohemians will be hoping to build on their good start to the season with a win over Bray.
Premiership Preview: Aston Villa v West Ham
Boylesports preview the Villan’s away match to Bolton, in this weekend’s Premiership action.
Capital clash vital in title chase
Shamrock Rovers take on their Dublin derby rivals St Pats in one of the League of Ireland’s top fixtures this week.
Players show racism the red card
The Eircom League will circulate 60,000 posters to schools nationwide, in order to promote their ‘Show Racism the Red Card’ campaign.
British Lions Betting: Coaches hail O’Connell ‘a leader and a winner’
As the British Lions’ squad is announced, betting.betfair.com’s rugby correspondent Geoffrey Riddle asks Ian McGeechan and Warren Gatland the questions that Betfair punters are dying to hear answered…
That’s it. The waiting is finally over. The 37 men who are pencilled in for this year’s Lions tour were unveiled today in the plush surroundings of a hotel near Terminal 5 in the dulcet tones of Gerald Davies, the Lions tour manager. To see who they are, click here.
The debate over who missed out and why is deathly dull, but the one area of that subject that interests punters greatly is the captaincy. After Ireland’s magnificent Grand Slam, it was impossible to conceive that anyone else other than Brian O’Driscoll or Paul O’Connell would lead the Lions on their 13th tour of South Africa. Punters and rugby fans alike had their favourite amongst those two candidates, and O’Driscoll was backed down to as short as [1.25] on Betfair for the honour.
Barring injury, however, it will be O’Connell who leads out the team against the Springboks in Durban on June 20th and coach Ian McGeechan was in no doubt that he had picked the right man. “Paul has proved himself a great leader with Munster and Ireland,” the head coach said. “He drives a forward pack. With the character that he is, I believe that we need that focus in the forwards. I feel that we need that impetus up front and Paul is the right character for that.”
The other coaches were just as enthusiastic about O’Connell. Warren Gatland, who had a public spat with the Irishman during the Six Nations, was quick to show that he had buried the hatchet with the towering lock. “Paul is a winner. He is hard-nosed and pretty uncompromising. It’s not about captains, countries or nations, it about picking the best team.”
When the Lions were last in South Africa 12 years ago it was their uncompromising defence that contributed to the fine 2-1 series win, a strategy that may be repeated this time if defence coach Shaun Edwards has anything to do with it.
McGeechan joked that Edwards has insisted on just one day a week to work on attack when the tour begins, but joking aside, the hard-nosed former Leaguie was trenchant in his views on how the Lions must play if they are going to win the summer series. “There is no doubt in my mind we have to win the collisions on the advantage line and through phases two and three,” the Wasps and Wales man said.
“They are the best defensive unit in the world at the moment. You can see it in their sense of anticipation and unity.
“They have an excellent scrambled defence. It was easy to see during the November internationals, especially when Bakkies Botha shepherded out Delon Armitage.
“I think it would be unreasonable for us to expect our offence to score five tries in any Test, so it will be up to our defence to keep their points to a minimum if we are going to win.”
Punters would be wise therefore to keep in mind that the Tests may turn out to be attritional, low-scoring affairs, something borne out by the fact that eight of the last 12 Tri-Nations fixtures to be played in South Africa have featured fewer than 42.5 points.
The Lions’ first three fixtures are at altitude and the final two Tests also take place on the high veld, in Pretoria and Johannesburg. It is common knowledge that to perform at altitude there are only two ways to prepare. The Super 14 teams have long flown in on the day of the match, but the alternative is to acclimatise, a process which can take up to two weeks.
It was revealed by McGeechan that the players not involved in the Heineken Cup final (May23rd), will attend a high-altitude training camp in Grenada, Spain, but there were no plans in place as yet to deal with the altitude problem when the tour begins.
The combination of lack of preparation and the short nature of the modern tour means that this will be one of the toughest tasks facing any touring party in the history of the Lions concept. Betfair punters make the world champion Springboks [1.44] to prevail in the three-Test series, and the visitors [3.25], which, incidentally, is the best price you can get in the British betting market.
When asked whether he thought that the Lions had a better chance of winning the Test series than their current odds suggest, McGeechan shot back the reply. “That goes with the history of the series doesn’t it? I think that’s about right.”
The Lions have in fact won 16 of the 43 Tests they have played on South African soil over the years, losing 21 and drawing six. That represents a strike-rate of 37%, which equates to around a [2.7] shot. Food for thought over the next few weeks, especially with the Springboks looking tired or injured due to their Super 14 commitments.
Barcelona v Sevilla betting
Barcelona coach Pep Guardiola hopes the club’s fans will get behind his team at the Nou Camp tomorrow night as they look to close in on the Primera Division title with a win against third-placed Sevilla.
Big guns back for United
After their miserable FA Cup exit last weekend, Alex Ferguson has drafted in his top players for their crucial match against Portsmouth tomorrow.
Barcelona Open Betting: Nadal should win again but Ferrer should provide trading opportunities
Sean Calvert is looking to invest his winnings from successfully backing Nadal last week to get behind David Ferrer, whose record here is good and who could make it all the way to the final before losing to…Rafael Nadal.
I’m certainly not going to win any prizes for originality for successfully predicting Rafa Nadal’s win in Monte Carlo, but the 40 percent return on my cash came in very handy.
Sadly there’s no chance of a repeat of those odds this week in Barcelona, as The Pearl de Manacor’s latest clay court title victory has got the layers scuttling for cover.
The best price you can currently get on Nadal to collect his fifth successive Barcelona title is around [1.28] and so for a second week in a row the equation is a simple one – can anyone stop him?
The answer to that is highly unlikely, but there are a few factors in Barcelona that weren’t around in Monte Carlo.
Firstly, Nadal will be tired (or as tired as Nadal ever gets) after a surprisingly tough semi final and final last week and therefore the likelihood of a retirement increases albeit only marginally.
Secondly, thanks to an embarrassingly lopsided draw, the world number one has been paired with David Nalbandian (2-1 lifetime to Nalbandian) and a few others that could give him a game on their best form.
Nikolay Davydenko and Stan Wawrinka both showed glimpses of their best on clay last week and both are in Nadal’s half, as is recent Casablanca winner Juan Carlos Ferrero and fellow red dirt specialist Nicolas Almagro.
It might be stretching a point to include Richard Gasquet in that list of potential hurdles, but the mercurial Frenchman is seeded to face Nadal in the third round.
At the absolute minimum this should ensure that Nadal doesn’t have the easy opening to Barcelona as he enjoyed in Monte Carlo when he was faced with the might of Juan Ignacio Chela, Nicolas Lapentti and Ivan Ljubicic first up.
All of which presents a decent back-to-lay option in the bottom half of the draw and there are several suitors for the opportunity of getting to an ATP Tour World Tour 500 clay event without having to overcome Nadal in the process.
The first of these is the number two seed Fernando Verdasco at around [14.0], but as I mentioned last week Verdasco is flattering to deceive at the moment and he has never bettered the last 16 in Barcelona.
The man from Madrid does appear to have a fairly straightforward run to the quarter finals though with only the likes of Tomas Berdych ([150.0]) and Paul Henri Mathieu ([100.0]) standing in the way of a potential last eight clash with Fernando Gonzalez ([65.0]).
I would envisage Verdasco thrashing a few before surrendering meekly around the quarter or semi final stage, possibly to Gonzalez, who himself isn’t without a chance at around [65.0], but the value for my money lies in the adjacent section of the draw.
This final quarter has home favourites Tommy Robredo ([75.0]) and David Ferrer as the seeds and the latter clearly has a fine chance of reaching the Barcelona final for the second consecutive year.
The diminutive Valencian is not one to place a huge amount of trust in as his heavy defeat to Verdasco last week showed, but at around [28.0] he represents the best value to make the championship match.
After suffering an alarming slump towards the latter half of 2008 that saw Ferrer slip from number four in the world to number 12, he looks to have regained his form somewhat and a return to home soil where only Nadal has beaten him in the past two years should bring out the best in Ferrer in conditions that clearly suit his scurrying game.
He could not have wished for a kinder draw with only compatriot Robredo to trouble him and Ferrer has generally come out on top whenever the pair have met, as was the case in this event last year when Ferrer was victorious in straight sets.
Igor Andreev ([110.0]) and Robin Soderling ([150.0]) are the other seeds in that particular section and their respective records here are poor.
Andreev has never won a match here in three attempts, while Soderling has lost in the opening round in his last four ATP Tour level events and last won a match at the top level at the Australian Open, so it’s fair to say that he’s struggling right now.
To sum up, I would imagine that Nadal will emerge victorious once again unless probably the finest clay court player in history has a physical breakdown, but I won’t be backing him at [1.28], so take Ferrer to at small stakes on a back-to lay basis in Barcelona.
